Information in the review is provided as of December 31, 2023.
Summary.
In December, there was a sudden increase in the activity of the Belarusian Armed Forces connected with the beginning of the new academic year. During the month, combat readiness inspections of some units were conducted. We can expect that 2024 will be no less active in terms of combat training activities than 2023.
The activity of the Russian Armed Forces didn’t change in December. There may be about 2000 servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces in Belarus, who don’t pose a military threat to Ukraine. The rotation of part of the contingent located at Mazyr (Bokau) airfield shows that there are no plans to withdraw Russian troops from Belarus for now.
The number of PMC Wagner mercenaries in Belarus in late December may be estimated at several hundred people. Training of representatives of law enforcement agencies (primarily Internal Troops) by mercenaries continues. There is every reason to believe that the mercenaries work for the law enforcement agencies of the Lukashenka regime.
The general medium-term forecast of the military situation in Belarus remains the same: there is no reason to expect an offensive by the Russian Armed Forces from the territory of Belarus, as well as an increase in their military presence. The significance of PMC Wagner as a destabilizing factor has almost disappeared.
1. Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus
1.1. Organization of combat training.
Traditionally, an increase in the intensity of combat training was observed in December. This is primarily connected with the beginning of the new academic year in the troops.
In early December, combat readiness trainings were held in all units of the Belarusian Armed Forces. During the trainings, they practiced the issues of bringing military units to combat readiness and training of personnel to act in various situations. Such events are held annually. Much attention was paid to camouflage, guard and defense of military equipment, the focus was on practical training of all tasks. They also practiced the reception of mobilized reservists into military units and the deployment of equipment reception points. The trainings lasted for three days.
It was also reported that one of the battalions of the 38th Air Assault Brigade and the 841st Artillery Group had begun field drills.
Important combat training activities include the following:
1) On December 11, a combat readiness inspection of a tank battalion of one of the mechanized brigades began by order of the commander of Western Operational Command. It was previously assumed that a combat readiness inspection would be conducted in December. According to available information, the tank battalion of the 6th Mechanized Brigade was involved in the inspection. The battalion’s equipment went to the Hozhski training ground in a combined manner: some of the tanks were transferred to the training ground by road trains, while some of the equipment marched to the concentration area on its own tracks. During the march, the unit crossed the Nioman river via a pontoon crossing. The coordination of tank crews was conducted. The inspection ended with comprehensive tactical training with live firing. During the training, the servicemen defeated the conventional enemy using ambushes, practiced overcoming mines and explosive barriers using trailers and attaching dynamic protection to combat vehicles. UAVs were actively used for reconnaissance. Much attention was paid to combating UAVs, FPV drones and loitering munitions of the conditional enemy. The training was held at the final stage of battalion coordination, after which the units returned to the permanent deployment point. The combat readiness inspection was completed. For more details, see the brief of 14.12.2023 “On December 11, a combat readiness inspection of a tank battalion of the Western Operational Command began.”
2) On December 15, a sudden inspection of the on-duty Air Defense Forces began. During the inspection, units of the Anti-Aircraft Missile and Radio-Technical Troops moved to the assigned areas and began to fulfill combat tasks. The S-300 and S-400 SAM systems and the Rosa-RB low-altitude radars were involved. Intensive flights of aircraft and helicopters from all air bases of the Belarusian Air Force were recorded.
The presence of units of the Special Operations Forces in the regions of Belarus bordering Ukraine continues. It was reported that on the eve of the New Year holidays, units of the 38th Air Assault Brigade and the 103rd Airborne Brigade were used to cover the southern border of Belarus.
Training of servicemen of the Internal Troops by mercenaries of PMC Wagner continued. It was reported that mercenaries conducted training with the Storm and Taifun special purpose detachments. It was also reported about the completion of the fifth course of a four-week training session with servicemen of special purpose units of the Internal Troops, where PMC Wagner mercenaries were instructors.
We should note the training of cadets of the Faculty of the Internal Troops of the Military Academy by Wagner mercenaries. It was reported that there was a one-month course of specialized training and a three-week course. It is notable that mercenaries have the opportunity to train cadets (future officers) and to instill their values from an early age.
It was also reported about conducting trainings with servicemen of the Belarusian Armed Forces. For example, the Wagner mercenaries conducted training on firearms and tactical training with servicemen of the 51st Artillery Brigade. In general, PMC Wagner mercenaries conduct systematic training with servicemen of the Internal Troops (unlike the Belarusian Armed Forces).
On December 26-27, representatives of Rosgvardiya visited Belarus. During the visit, the delegation got acquainted with facilities of the Internal Troops and the activities of special purpose units. It is possible that the purposes of this visit could have been: 1) general assessment of the combat potential of units of the Internal Troops; 2) study of the experience of forming new special purpose detachments, which have been intensively formed in the Internal Troops since the end of 2022. We should note that there is no mention of this visit in Rosgvardiya’s information resources.
1.2. Movements of military equipment and aviation activity.
The intensity of movements of military equipment increased compared to November. The main movements of military equipment were related to combat training and combat readiness inspections (for more details, see paragraph 1.1 of the review). The increase in the intensity of movements of convoys with equipment was also affected by additional training of drivers from among the recruits of the fall-2023 conscription. As in previous months, there was nothing unusual in movements of the equipment of the Belarusian Armed Forces. More details on the movements of military equipment are available on the map of military activity.
The intensity of movements of the Belarusian Armed Forces by rail remained at the same level as in December. Only one military cargo train with equipment of the 6th Mechanized Brigade was recorded in December.
The intensity of flights of the Belarusian Air Force decreased more than twice compared to November. Lida, Baranavichy and Machulishchy airfields were mainly used for flights, while Luninets and Barautsy airfields were used less frequently. The entire helicopter and aircraft fleet of the Belarusian Air Force was involved in the flights. Nothing unusual was observed during the flights.
We should note that in December, the An-26KPA inspecting aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces was in Belarus. It’s a special laboratory aircraft, which inspects the operation of ground-based radio-technical flight support equipment, aviation electronic communications and light-signaling systems. During the month the aircraft conducted flights in the area of Lida, Baranavichy and Machulishchy airfields. Thus, all airfields of the main base of the Belarusian Air Force were inspected.
Such inspections are held regularly. Previously, An-26KPA aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces were also involved in such inspections.
1.3. Military commissariats. Territorial defense and national home guard.
In early December, military commissariats held trainings related to the start of the new academic year. It was reported that trainings were held with reservists assigned to the administration of the preliminary collection point for persons liable for military service, with reserve officers assigned to territorial defense bodies, with the administrations of the facilities of the base of mobilization, work of the headquarters for notification of persons liable for military service, etc. During the month, military commissariats conducted trainings on military transportation duties, military registration and reservation of persons liable for military service, as well as trainings with the staffs of notification of persons liable for military service, etc.
There were no reports of drills with the territorial defense and national home guard in December again. Territorial defense drills have been conducted in 12 districts of Belarus in 2023. In 2023, a total of 1080 activities at various levels were conducted with territorial defense. And in 2024, training on the management of formations, comprehensive inspections of territorial defense management bodies, as well as command-staff drills are planned.
Other notable events include the following:
1) On December 14, under the leadership of Chief of the General Staff Viktar Hulevich, the results of the activities of military commissariats in the 2022/2023 academic year were summarized. According to Hulevich, military commissariats fulfilled the tasks of military mobilization, registration and recruitment work. Conscription for active military service and service in the reserves was completed on time and in full. The required number of new recruits was sent to staff the troops.
2) On December 18-22, a training course “Territorial defense” was held at the General Staff Faculty of the Military Academy. The course was attended by chairmen of district and city executive committees. The trainees studied the order of organization and activation of territorial defense.
As for the results of the fall conscription, we can note that the Ministry of Defense of Belarus managed to draft about 3200 people (24% of all recruits of the fall conscription) for service under contract instead of active military service. We can conclude that the Belarusian Armed Forces staked on increasing the number of contract servicemen. The measures taken are aimed at creating a personnel reserve for the formation of units of the Southern Operational Command. For more details, see the brief of 20.12.2023 “Preparation of the personnel reserve for the Southern Operational Command has begun: results of the fall-2023 conscription campaign.”
In December, 6 court verdicts were reported in criminal cases against citizens who evaded conscription (Article 435 of the Criminal Code). In total, courts gave 161 sentences in 2023. This is not the final figure yet, as the sentences are published in the public domain with a delay. However, the number of sentences is already significantly lower (by 94) than in 2022.
1.4. Military training sessions with reservists.
During the month, there was almost no information about training sessions. It’s only known that as part of combat readiness inspection, reservists were drafted into the 6th Mechanized Brigade. The number of the drafted wasn’t disclosed.
We note that according to the 2016 staff structure, the number of personnel of a separate tank battalion of the Mechanized Brigade is 232 people. According to available information, a battalion of the 6th Mechanized Brigade staffed according to minimal staffing levels was subject to the inspection. In this regard, we may assume that about 100 people could have been drafted to training sessions.
Thus, the total number of reservists drafted to military training sessions in 2023 can be at least 10,130 people. Of these, 1287 were drafted to territorial defense training sessions. Earlier, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported on its plans to draft 9000 reservists for training sessions in 2023. Thus, the declared limit for the draft of reservists to training sessions was significantly exceeded.
The result is based only on information from open sources and may not be final. In reality, the number of reservists who underwent military training sessions in 2023 can be higher by at least 30%. According to our estimates, a total of about 13,000 people underwent military training sessions in 2023. This is twice as many as the average over the past 20 years.
It is notable that the Ministry of Defense of Belarus hasn’t reported any plans on the draft of conscripts to military training sessions in 2024. However, currently there are no preconditions for reducing the number of military training sessions.
We can also mention regular trainings conducted with the Chest’ special purpose detachment of the Internal Troops, which consists of veterans of special operations units.
1.5. Rearmament and activity of the military-industrial complex. Development of military infrastructure. Formation of new units.
Supplies of new military equipment to the troops.
There were no reports on the supplies of new military equipment to the Belarusian Armed Forces in December. However, some plans on the rearmament were announced:
1) One of the units was to receive a new jamming station by the end of 2023, but it’s unknown what kind of station. By 2025, all EW units of the Belarusian Armed Forces will be re-equipped with equipment to fight in the ultra-short wave spectrum.
2) According to statements by Air Force and Air Defense Forces Commander Andrei Lukyanovich, the army was to receive four more Mi-35M helicopters, four Su-30SM fighters, as well as Rosa, Vostok and Protivnik radars by the end of 2023. There have been no reports on the transfer of this equipment to the troops at the moment. As the example with the transfer of the first batch of the Mi-35M helicopters shows, the transfer of equipment (especially Russian-made) under current conditions can be delayed.
3) In October 2022, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus announced that military equipment, including T-72 tanks, armored personnel carriers and vehicles, had been sent to Russia for modernization. So far, there was no information about the return of the equipment to Belarus after modernization. This only confirms that the equipment was sent not for modernization, but was handed over to the Russian military. It is known about the transfer of more than 200 pieces of equipment, including T-72A tanks, BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles and Ural vehicles.
4) The MR-155 Baikal smoothbore hunting rifle is one of the “handy” means of countering UAVs, which has appeared and is being practiced in the Belarusian Armed Forces. The rifle is used for firing at UAVs.
Activity of the military-industrial complex.
1) The State Authority for Military Industry together with the Ministry of Defense conducted final tests of 122-mm rocket projectilesfor the Grad MLRS produced in Belarus. As a result of the tests, the projectiles successfully hit their assigned targets and confirmed their characteristics. Earlier, it was reported on plans to produce 15,000 such projectiles per year. The realization of this task looks doubtful, since the final assembly of the projectiles at the plant is done manually.
2) Chairman of the State Authority for Military Industry Dzmitry Pantus said in an interview that by orders of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus, 8 models of military equipment were put into service in 2022, and 5 more in 2023. It was not specified what equipment was put into service in 2023.
Development of military infrastructure.
1) Preparations for the construction of a training ground for the forming Southern Operational Command of the Belarusian Armed Forces have begun. Based on the available information, four possible sites where the training ground will be established have been identified. They are located in Homiel and Rechytsa districts.
2) New facts confirming preparations for the construction of a military town in Homiel district for the Southern Operational Command appeared. A paintball and laser tag club was located on the construction site of the military town. Back in November, the club announced the relocation of its playground. The playground could have been relocated due to the construction of the military town.
Also, according to satellite images, in November-December, trees were cut down at the construction site of the military town. The size of the cut down area is 60 x 210 meters.
Formation of new units.
In 2024, a new special purpose detachment will be established on the basis of the 1st Militia Brigade of the Internal Troops. Nine such detachments have already been formed in the Internal Troops over the past year.
1.6. Tactical nuclear weapons.
On December 25, during a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, when asked whether all the planned Russian nuclear weapons had been delivered to Belarus, Aliaksandr Lukashenka said the following, “A long time ago. I already told you when the delivery was completed. Back in September, I think, or in October. At the beginning of October was the last one. Everything is in its place in good condition.” We note that this is not Lukashenka’s first statement, in which he talks about the deployment of Russian TNWs in Belarus. However, so far all statements have not been supported by any facts. Although the transfer of new weapons is often actively demonstrated by the Ministry of Defense of Belarus.
Currently, there is still no reliable data that would confirm the presence of TNWs on the territory of Belarus. And all political statements regarding TNWs in Belarus made by Lukashenka, officials and “experts” are not credible.
1.7. Amendments to the legislation in the military sphere.
1) On December 5, the Russian State Duma ratified an agreement with Belarus on the establishment and operation of combat training centers for joint training of military personnel. On December 12, the law on ratification of the agreement was signed by Russia’s president. The agreement was signed on March 28, 2023, and Belarus ratified it on July 17. Accordingly, the process of ratification of the agreement was completed by both Belarusian and Russian parties.
The main tasks of the combat training centers are: joint combat training (duty), exchange of experience on the combat use of military equipment, training in practical skills in operating military equipment, unification of combat training of the Armed Forces, etc.
2) According to state media, the issue of criminalizing the illegal use of UAVs and ultralight aircraft is being considered. In general, after the sabotage at Machulishchy airfield in February 2023, when civilian UAVs damaged an A-50U AEW&C aircraft, the Lukashenka regime saw the seriousness of threats posed even by civilian UAVs. Following these events, a number of measures were taken to combat UAVs. One of the most radical was a complete ban on the import, possession, storage, operation, and manufacture of UAVs by individuals in Belarus.
1.8. International cooperation.
1) On December 4-7, the III exhibition of armaments and military equipment EDEX-2023 was held in Cairo. A delegation headed by Commander of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces Andrei Lukyanovich took part in the exhibition representing Belarus. During the visit, Lukyanovich held official meetings with the commanders of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces of the Egyptian Armed Forces. During the meetings, they discussed the participation of Belarus and Egypt in joint combat training activities, as well as cooperation in the modernization of the air defense systems of the countries.
2) On December 12-14, a delegation of the Ministry of Defense of Kazakhstan headed by the Chief of Logistics of the Armed Forces of Kazakhstan visited Belarus. During the visit, they discussed issues of bilateral military cooperation in the field of logistics.
3) On December 19-21, a Belarusian military delegation paid a visit to Vietnam. During the visit, a meeting was held with the head of the Department of Peacekeeping Operations of the Ministry of Defense of Vietnam. The parties discussed the algorithm of building cooperation in the sphere of peacekeeping activities. It was also reported that a bilateral meeting was held with the head of the Department of Foreign Relations of the Ministry of Defense of Vietnam.
2. Armed Forces of the Russian Federation
2.1. Russian group in Belarus.
The situation with the group of the Russian Armed Forces in Belarus didn’t change in December compared to the previous months. There is no reason to believe that servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces will start arriving in Belarus in the near future. At the same time, it is possible that if a new wave of mobilization is announced in Russia, the infrastructure of the Belarusian Armed Forces will again be used to train the mobilized.
Russian military continue to be stationed at Mazyr (Bokau) and Ziabrauka airfields. There is no information about the changes in the number of equipment located at Mazyr (Bokau) airfield at our disposal. So far, it has not been publicly reported in what status the Russian military are present at the airfields and what exactly they are doing there.
According to clarified information, units of the 1530th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment of the Eastern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces (military unit 31458, Khabarovsk Krai) are stationed at Mazyr (Bokau) airfield. The regiment’s units have been in Belarus since February 2022.
Also, on December 9-14, we recorded the rotation of part of the Russian contingent at Mazyr (Bokau) airfield. The rotation could have involved about ⅓ of the airfield’s contingent, or about 80 people.
We should note that in June, it became known that the Investigative Committee of Russia announced the establishment of the Military Investigative Department in Belarus. According to available information, the 484th Military Investigative Department became a part of the Military Investigative Directorate for Strategic Missile Troops and is located in Aziarechcha village, Kletsk district. The Baranavichy radar station (Volga radar), which is an element of the Russian missile warning system, is located there. We may assume that the choice of the location of the 484th Department is explained by the fact that the largest Russian military contingent is permanently stationed in Aziarechcha.
Thus, as of December 31, 2023, the number of Russian military personnel stationed in Belarus didn’t change and can be estimated at about 2000 people. Of these:
- at Baranavichy, Mazyr (Bokau) and Ziabrauka airfields – 500-600 people;
- at the Baranavichy radar station and the 43rd Vileika communication center – up to 1450 people.
We should add that the flight restriction zone for all types of civil aircraft (including UAVs) in southern Belarus was extended according to NOTAMN O0839/23 until March 31, 2024. The ban on flights over the southern part of Belarus was introduced on February 24, 2022, with the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This means that the theoretical threat of missile strikes from the territory of Belarus still exists.
2.2. Movements of military equipment and aviation activity.
The intensity of movements of military equipment on public roads increased slightly compared to November. We can state that due to the decrease in the number of the Russian military in Belarus, only single movements of equipment of the Russian Armed Forces are recorded. Movements are recorded only in the vicinity of Mazyr and Homiel, where the Russian military are stationed (for more details, see paragraph 2.1 of the review). At the same time, movements in the vicinity of Mazyr are recorded regularly and are systematic. More details on the movements of military equipment are available on the map.
There were no movements of the Russian Armed Forces by rail recorded in December. This is primarily explained by a significant reduction in the number of the Russian group deployed in Belarus.
Aviation activity of the Russian Aerospace Forces decreased almost twice in December compared to November.
Military transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces, Rosgvardiya, and aircraft linked to PMC Wagner kept arriving at the airfields of the Belarusian Armed Forces and civilian airports:
Minsk National Airport: passenger – 1 Tu-214 of the Special Flights Squad “Russia”, 1 Tu-154.
Homiel airport: transport – 1 An-12.
Baranavichy airfield: transport – 1 An-124 (note: the aircraft also flew to Homiel airport, since it couldn’t land in Baranavichy due to bad weather), 2 An-26.
As can be seen in the diagram below, the number of arrivals of military transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Belarus in December was the lowest in 2023. The situation is similar with the arrival of passenger aircraft, which arrived in December less than on average per month throughout the year. We should note that, for example, in November, most of the aircraft arrivals were related to the CSTO summit activities in Minsk.
In December, one An-12 military transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Homiel airport. Previously, Russian aircraft arrived at the airport on October 13. The dynamics of arrivals of the Russian Aerospace Forces aircraft at Homiel airport since August 2022 can be seen in the chart below.
Also, on December 21 and 27, flights of fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded at Baranavichy airfield.
The number of the Russian Aerospace Forces aviation group didn’t change during the month. As of December 31, the following aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces are permanently stationed on the territory of Belarus:
- at Lida airfield – one Su-25 attack aircraft, which has been at the airfield since August 31;
- at Baranavichy airfield – two Su-24M/MR aircraft and at least one Su-30SM fighter.
3. Wagner private military company
The situation with mercenaries in Belarus didn’t change compared to the previous month.
As of the camp of PMC Wagner in Tsel village, we should note the following. According to satellite images, a decrease in the number of vehicles in the northern part of the camp of PMC Wagner was recorded in November. The largest reduction of vehicles was also observed during the period from December 13 to December 18. In total, in November-December, the number of vehicles in the camp could have decreased by 30%. The equipment could have been taken back to Russia and handed over to the Russian military.
A number of media outlets and Telegram channels spread information that mercenaries of PMC Wagner became employees of the Tornado special purpose detachment. This conclusion was made based on the fact that the symbols of PMC Wagner were placed on one of the pickup trucks and on the flagpole. No other confirming facts were given. It is possible that some of the mercenaries will remain in Belarus and join the security forces of the Lukashenka regime. But it’s incorrect to claim this based only on the use of the symbols of PMC Wagner, popular among security forces, and dubious sources. We should note that some propaganda Telegram channels denied information about the enrollment of mercenaries in the Tornado detachment.
The mercenaries continue to conduct systematic trainings with servicemen of the Internal Troops and episodic trainings with the Belarusian Armed Forces (for more details, see paragraph 1.1 of the review).
No active movements of PMC Wagner mercenaries on the territory of Belarus have been recorded. The number of the mercenaries who are still in Belarus can be estimated at several hundred people.
Speaking about the prospects for the presence of the mercenaries in Belarus, we can note that the forecasts described in the review for October remain valid. Here we should recall Lukashenka’s statement made on December 25 about the mercenaries: “Even former Wagner fighters, who have stayed with us, are working in our units today, sharing their experience.” This confirms our assumption that a small number of mercenaries are still in Belarus and may be serving in the security forces of the Lukashenka regime.
4. General conclusions
- There was an increase in the activity of the Belarusian Armed Forces in December. This was connected with the start of the new academic year. During the month, a large number of combat training activities were conducted. We can especially mention combat readiness inspections of the tank battalion of the 6th Mechanized Brigade and the Air Force and Air Defense Forces. The vast majority of all activities are taking into account the experience of the war in Ukraine.
2024 is going to be full of combat training activities.
- The general conclusion about the status of the Russian Armed Forces on the territory of Belarus didn’t change. The deployed units of the Russian troops don’t pose a threat to Ukraine and other countries bordering Belarus. At the moment, the number of the Russian contingent in Belarus may increase, for example, if a new wave of mobilization in Russia is announced, or under the influence of other unpredictable events.
One of the important events related to the Russian Armed Forces in December was the partial rotation of the contingent stationed at Mazyr (Bokau) airfield. This indicates that the Russian contingent won’t be withdrawn from Belarus for now. Moreover, the ratification of the agreement between Russia and Belarus on the functioning of combat training centers creates preconditions for the increase of military presence. For example, as part of the training of the Belarusian Armed Forces to work on the new military equipment that has been (will be) put into service, combat training centers may be established on the territory of the country, where Russian military personnel and their military equipment will be stationed.
In general, the level of activity of the Russian Armed Forces in Belarus in December was very low.
- All conclusions regarding the prospects for the deployment of PMC Wagner mercenaries in Belarus given in the review for October 2023 remain valid. A small number of mercenaries are still stationed in Belarus, who serve as instructors for law enforcement agencies (mostly for the Internal Troops). Currently, the entire role of the mercenaries in Belarus has been reduced to training the military.
In general, the level of activity of PMC Wagner in Belarus in December was low.
