Aviation activity, movements of the troops by rail and roads in Belarus
During the week, units of the 103rd Airborne Brigade of the Belarusian Armed Forces went to Homiel district and military transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Baranavichy airfield.
Aviation activity
- Aviation activity was recorded at Machulishchy, Lida, and Baranavichy airfields. Flights of aircraft and helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force and Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded.
- On December 21, the An-26 military transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Baranavichy airfield from Kursk (Russia). After 1.5 hours the aircraft returned to Russia.
- On December 21, flights of fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded at Baranavichy airfield.
- On December 22, the An-26 military transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces flew from Baranavichy airfield to Machulishchy airfield.
- On December 19 and December 22, helicopters of the 50th Combined Air Base of the Belarusian Air Force flew to the area of the state border with Poland.
Rail activity
- On December 20-21, a military cargo train with equipment of the tank battalion of the 6th Mechanized Brigade arrived in Hrodna from Parechcha station. The unit was returning to the permanent deployment point after a combat readiness inspection conducted at the Hozhski training ground.
Movements by road
- No large convoys with military vehicles of the Russian Armed Forces were recorded. Single vehicles and small convoys were regularly spotted in Mazyr.
- No movements of PMC Wagner vehicles were recorded. It was reported on the training by Wagner mercenaries with servicemen of the Internal Troops.
- Several large convoys with equipment of the Belarusian Armed Forces were recorded in Vitsiebsk (34+ pieces), near Ziarbauka (10+ pieces) and on some sections of the M5 and R31 highways (Asipovichy-Kalinkavichy district). Single vehicles and small convoys were spotted in Minsk and on some sections of the M6 and M9 highways.
Changes in the size of the Russian Armed Forces group and PMC Wagner in Belarus: no data.
General conclusion
1) The available information allows us to conclude that one of the battalions of the 103rd Airborne Brigade could have been redeployed to Homiel district (the vicinity of Ziabrauka). The units perform tasks to strengthen the protection of the border with Ukraine and to guard the Russian military stationed at Ziabrauka airfield. Units of the Special Operations Forces have been performing these tasks since March 2022 on a rotational basis. Earlier, it was reported that one of the battalions of the 38th Air Assault Brigade was deployed in Homiel district. It is possible that units of the 103rd Brigade replaced the 38th Brigade.
2) During the week, two An-26 military transport aircraft arrived at Baranavichy airfield from Russia. It is known that one of the aircraft arrived from Kursk. The 14th Fighter Aviation Regiment of the Russian Aerospace Forces is based at Kursk-Vostochny airfield. The regiment has the Su-30SM fighters, it took part in the joint Air Force drills held in Belarus in January 2023. At least one Russian Su-30SM fighter is currently stationed at Baranavichy airfield (most likely as part of the work of the joint training center). We may assume that the arrivals were related to the operation of the Su-30SM fighter(s) at Baranavichy airfield.
3) There will be no increase in military activity until the end of December. We should expect an increase in military activity in January, after the end of the New Year holidays.
