On May 18, 2023, the Russian Aerospace Forces relocated aviation equipment located on the territory of Belarus.
19.05.2023
Data as of 09:00 (GMT+3) 24.05.2023
On May 18, 2023, the Russian Aerospace Forces relocated aviation equipment located on the territory of Belarus. According to our information, the following movements took place on May 18:
Two Su-30SM fighters and eight Su-34 fighter-bombers were redeployed from Baranavichy airfield to Machulishchy airfield. The mentioned aircraft were stationed at Baranavichy airfield since January 15, 2023, and they arrived to take part in the joint Airforce drills of the Russian Aerospace Forces and the Belarusian Air Force. During the stay of the mentioned group of aircraft in Belarus, we have recorded rotations of some of the aircraft (for example, Su-34 fighter-bomber and Su-30SM fighters). The rotation was as follows: the aircraft flew to airfields in Russia and new aircraft arrived instead.
Several aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces were redeployed from Baranavichy airfield to Lida airfield. We may assume that these were two Su-24MR reconnaissance aircraft. These aircraft also arrived in Belarus in January 2023 to take part in the joint Airforce drills and were stationed at Baranavichy airfield until May 18.
10 out of 12 helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces permanently stationed in Belarus (one Mi-28, the rest — Mi-8 and Mi-24) were redeployed from Machulishchy airfield to Baranavichy airfield. On May 19, the remaining two helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces were also redeployed to Baranavichy airfield.
A group of helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived in Belarus on January 8, 2023, to take part in the joint Airforce drills. From January 19 to February 5, the group of helicopters was stationed at Luniniets airfield, from February 5 to May 18 — at Machulishchy airfield. During their stay in Belarus, we also recorded rotations of some of the helicopters.
We also recorded flights of military transport aircraft. For example, An-26 (RF-36126) and An-12BK (RF-90787) aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces flew from Baranavichy airfield to Machulishchy airfield with a cargo twice. We also recorded a flight of An-26 military transport aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force from Machulishchy airfield to Baranavichy airfield and back. Most likely, these aircraft were used to transport equipment and cargo (including aviation ammunition) needed to support the flights of aircraft redeployed from Baranavichy airfield to Machulishchy airfield. This indicates that there is currently no talk about the withdrawal of the aviation group of the Russian Aerospace Forces from Belarus. The aircraft redeployed from Baranavichy airfield to Machulishchy airfield will be stationed there for a long time.
According to our information, at least one Su-30SM fighter was also redeployed from Baranavichy airfield to Lida airfield. This is indicated by the data of aviation activity for May 21. It’s unknown whether this relocation is connected with the redeployment of the Russian Aerospace Forces.
We also received information that three combat vehicles of the Tor-M2K anti-aircraft missile systems of the Belarusian Armed Forces, which were stationed at Baranavichy airfield, were sent to Minsk on their wheels. Two more Tor-M2K went to Palonka village (the 230th combined arms training ground Obuz-Liasnouski). We couldn’t confirm this information.
Speaking of the possible reasons for the redeployments of aircraft and helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces described above, it’s necessary to note the following. In March 2023, the Command of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces of Belarus placed a tender for procurement of 1000 PAG-18 / PAG-14 airfield slabs for a total amount of 1,300,000 BYN ($455,932). PAG-18 / PAG-14 slabs are used to construct runways at airfields. We note that PAG-14 and PAG-18 airfield slabs differ in thickness (140 and 180 millimeters, respectively).
The airfield slabs were purchased for:
The 50th combined aviation base (military unit 06752, Machulishchy airfield) — 584 PAG-18 slabs.
The 116th attack aviation base (military unit 19764, Lida airfield) — 266 PAG-14 slabs.
The 61st fighter aviation base (military unit 54804, Baranavichy airfield) — 150 PAG-14 slabs.
However, this tender wasn’t held at the first attempt, and on April 20 it was announced again (also wasn’t held). On May 10, the third tender for the purchase of airfield slabs was announced. According to the terms of the tender, applications from suppliers are accepted until May 20. According to its terms, the delivery of the slabs to the customer should take place from June 12 to June 23, 2023. However, in the evening of May 23, the tender was declared failed because of the insufficient number of bidders
Note. Procurement of PAG-14 / PAG-18 slabs is not unusual. For example, in 2022, the Command of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces of the Belarusian Armed Forces purchased 564 PAG-18 slabs for the 50th combined aviation base (Machulishchy airfield). In 2021, 540 plates were purchased for Machulishchy airfield.
If the materials listed above are purchased, they will be enough, for example, to improve about 110 meters of the runway at Machulishchy airfield (the total length of the runway of the airfield is 3000 meters). A lower quantity of airfield slabs is purchased for Lida and Baranavichy airfields, which will allow improving an even smaller part of the runway there.
Since the tender was declared failed for the third time, the Command of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces of Belarus will have the right to purchase the airfield slabs from one vendor. Given all the formalities involved in public procurement, we can expect that the customer will most likely receive these materials no earlier than at the end of June 2023.
We note that the 83rd Separate Airfield Engineering Regiment of the Belarusian Armed Forces is engaged in the construction, reconstruction, and maintenance of military airfields in combat readiness. Each year, starting from April, servicemen of the airfield engineering battalions of the regiment travel all over Belarus to perform repair or construction work. There were no reports about the movements of the mentioned unit recently.
Thus, we may assume that the relocations of the aviation are connected exactly with the preparation for the repair of the runway.
However, this version has a number of limitations. As noted above, the largest amount of work to repair the runway should take place at Machulishchy airfield. At the same time, fighter aircraft were redeployed from Baranavichy airfield there. Also, part of the aircraft were redeployed to Lida airfield, which hasn’t been used to deploy aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces for over a year.
We also didn’t record the redeployment of all the aviation equipment of the Russian Aerospace Forces to one airfield of the Belarusian Air Force to conduct repair work at the empty airfields. In case of Machulishchy and Baranavichy airfields, there was an exchange of the aircraft fleet of the Russian Aerospace Forces, which were stationed at the airfields. Although, as noted above, runway repair materials were purchased for all operating airfields of the Belarusian Air Force.
It’s also notable that the reserve airfields of the Belarusian Air Force (Barautsy, Luniniets, and Babruisk) weren’t used for the temporary deployment of aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces. If the non-use of Luniniets airfield can be explained by its proximity to the border with Ukraine and the high risks of potential destruction of aircraft by means of destruction, Barautsy and Babruisk airfields are far enough from the border with Ukraine.
We don’t currently see any other potential reasons (except for possible repair work with the reservations mentioned above) for the redeployment of aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces. We will be able to obtain additional information based on the analysis of flight data of the Belarusian Air Force and Russian Aerospace Forces. We should once again emphasize that there are currently no signs of the withdrawal of the aviation group of the Russian Aerospace Forces from Belarus.
