Aviation activity, movements of the troops by rail and roads in Belarus.
Over the past week, the situation with the Belarusian group deployed in Homiel region hasn’t changed dramatically. As of September 15, its number can be estimated at least at ≈1600 people people.
Some units of the Belarusian Armed Forces have been deployed in the border area with Ukraine for the second month already. Therefore, their rotation can be expected in early October. However, there are no preconditions for the withdrawal of troops from Homiel region.
After the drills, units of the 19th Mechanized Brigade returned from the border area with Lithuania to the permanent deployment point. Belarusian military had been in the Astraviets district for about 2 weeks.
No flights of aircraft and helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded in the airspace of Belarus.
Aviation activity
Aviation activity was recorded at Machulishchy, Lida, Baranavichy, Babruisk, Ziabrauka airfields, etc. Flights of aircraft and helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force were recorded.
Belarusian Air Force
- On September 9, flights of Su-25 attack aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force from Babruisk airfield were recorded in the southern regions of Belarus.
- On September 9, 12, 14 and 15, flights of fighters of the Belarusian Air Force from Baranavichy airfield were recorded in the southern and southeastern regions of Belarus.
- On September 10, an Il-76 military transport aircraft flew from Lida airfield to Babruisk airfield.
- On September 10, a Mi-8 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Charatsianka (Zhytkavichy district). Later the helicopter flew to Ziabrauka airfield. Then the helicopter flew to Babruisk airfield. Later the helicopter flew to Machulishchy airfield via Ziabrauka airfield and Charatsianka.
- On September 10, a Mi-8 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield through Babruisk airfield and further to Mahiliou region.
- On September 10, a Mi-24 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to the area of Luninets and Babruisk airfield.
- On September 11, 4 Su-25 attack aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Babruisk airfield to Lida airfield.
- On September 11, a Mi-8 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Ziabrauka airfield. Later the helicopter flew to Dobrush (Dobrush district), Yanauka (Rechytsa district), Belaya Dubrova (Kastsyukovichy district). In the evening, the helicopter returned to Machulishchy airfield.
- On September 11, an Il-76 military transport aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force left Machulishchy airfield for Kant (Kyrgyzstan). On September 12, the aircraft returned from Kyrgyzstan to Machulishchy.
- On September 12, a Mi-8 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Charatsianka (Zhytkavichy district).
- On September 12, a Mi-24 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to the area of Babruisk, Asipovichy, Aktsiabrski and Svetlahorsk.
- On September 13 and 14, a Mi-24 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to the southeast of Belarus (via Babruisk airfield and Zhlobin).
- On September 14, an Il-76 military transport aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Akhtubinsk airfield (Astrakhan region, Russia) via Kubinka airfield.
- On September 14 and 15, a fighter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Baranavichy airfield to Mahiliou region (to the border with Russia).
Russian Aerospace Forces
- No flights were recorded.
Railroad activity
- On September 11, a military cargo train with equipment of one of the mechanized battalions of the 6th Mechanized Brigade was being formed at Parechcha station (Hrodna district).
- On September 14 and 15, military cargo trains with equipment of the 19th Mechanized Brigade arrived at Zaslonava station (Lepel district).
Movements by road
- Single vehicles of the Russian Armed Forces were spotted in Mazyr and Mazyr district. The movements were related to activities of the anti-aircraft missile divizion of the 1530th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment of the Russian Armed Forces, located at Mazyr (Bokau) airfield.
- Single vehicles and small convoys (up to 10 pieces) of the Belarusian Armed Forces were spotted in Minsk, Mazyr, Stolin, and on some sections of the М3, М9, М10, R13, and others highways.
Separately, we should note the following:
- On September 12, it was reported that the R-414MBRP Sosna-2 radio relay station was deployed in Biarozauka (Lida district).
- On September 13, the erection of fortifications using so-called “dragon’s teeth” was observed between Shynaushchyna and Lukashova (Pastavy district).
- On September 15, a convoy of equipment of the 15th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade was moving along the M8 highway (Urytsksye, Homiel district – M10/M8). The convoy consisted of 2 combat vehicles, 1 transport-loading vehicle and 1 maintenance vehicle (with a trailer) from the Tor-M2K SAM system, a KamAZ (KUNG), and an Ural-4320 (tarpaulin covered).
General conclusion on current situation
1) Over the past week, the situation with the Belarusian group deployed in Homiel region hasn’t changed dramatically. As of September 15, the number of the group can still be estimated at ≈1600 people people. This is the minimum confirmed number of troops. The number of redeployed units will be updated as new information becomes available.
The withdrawal of the Su-25 attack aircraft of the 116th Assault Air Base from the operational airfield to the permanent deployment airfield was observed. The fact of the withdrawal of aviation to the permanent deployment point once again confirms that there is no military threat to Belarus from Ukraine. And the redeployment of troops to Homiel region is nothing more than an informational action of the Lukashenka regime.
As noted above, on September 15, a convoy of equipment of the 15th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade (Tor-M2K SAM system) was recorded in Homiel district. It is possible that the unit could have been marching to the staging area to reinforce the group of the Belarusian Armed Forces.
Some units of the Belarusian Armed Forces have been in the border area with Ukraine for more than a month (since August 10-11). As the experience of using units of the Special Operations Forces of the Belarusian Armed Forces to “cover the border with Ukraine” shows, their rotation was carried out on average every 2 months. Therefore, we can expect that in early October, the first rotation of units of the Belarusian Armed Forces, redeployed to Homiel region in August, will begin.
Judging by the experience of previous escalations of the situation on the Belarus-Ukraine border, it is possible that all units of the Belarusian Armed Forces (with the exception of the Special Operations Forces) can be withdrawn to the permanent deployment points at any moment. However, there are no obvious preconditions for this at the moment.
Therefore, the most likely scenario for the development of the situation in the near future is: 1) rotation of the units that arrived in Homiel region in August will take place in early October; 2) the “new shift” will stay in the border area with Ukraine until early December.
2) Units of the Belarusian Armed Forces were withdrawn from the border area with Lithuania. As previously reported, on September 1, a military cargo train with equipment of the 19th Mechanized Brigade arrived at Hudahai station (Astraviets district). On September 14-15, military cargo trains with equipment of the brigade arrived at the permanent deployment point (Zaslonava station). As expected, battalion tactical drills were conducted with the brigade’s units staffed with conscripts.
