Aviation activity, movements of the troops by rail and roads in Belarus.
Over the past week, the situation with the Belarusian Armed Forces deployed in Homiel region hasn’t changed dramatically. No rotations of the units redeployed to the border area with Ukraine have been recorded so far.
Flights of aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded. During the week, a flight of a Su-30SM fighter was recorded at Baranavichy airfield. A military transport aircraft arrived at Homiel airport.
The sixth rotation in 2024 of the Russian contingent located at Ziabrauka and Mazyr (Bokau) airfields took place. The rotation is conducted every month and a half on average.
Aviation activity
Aviation activity was recorded at Machulishchy, Lida, Baranavichy, Babruisk, Barautsy, Vosautsy, Ziabrauka airfields, at Homiel airport, etc. Flights of aircraft and helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force and Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded.
Belarusian Air Force
- On September 23 and 27, flights of Yak-130 combat trainer aircraft were recorded at Babruisk airfield in the southeastern regions of Belarus.
- On September 23-29, flights of fighters of the Belarusian Air Force were recorded at Baranavichy airfield in the southern, southeastern and eastern regions of Belarus.
- On September 24, a Tu-134 passenger aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force left Machulishchy airfield for Astrakhan (Russia). On September 27, the aircraft returned to Machulishchy from Baku (Azerbaijan).
- On September 24 and 26, a Mi-24 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to the area of Luninets (Brest region).
- On September 24, a Mi-8 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Mazyr. On September 25, the helicopter flew to Machulishchy.
- On September 24, a Mi-8 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Barautsy airfield. Then the helicopter flew to Pastavy, and from there – to BelNPP. In the evening, the helicopter flew to Lida airfield.
- On September 26, a Mi-24 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield along the border with Lithuania.
- On September 28, a Mi-8 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Charatsianka (Zhytkavichy district). Then the helicopter flew to Ziabrauka airfield and then to Babruisk airfield. Later, the helicopter returned to Machulishchy airfield via Ziabrauka airfield and Charatsianka settlement.
- On September 28, a Mi-24 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to the southeastern regions of Belarus.
Russian Aerospace Forces
- On September 25, an An-12 military transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces flew from Russia to Homiel airport. On September 26, the plane flew to Machulishchy airfield and from there to Rostov-on-Don (Russia).
- On September 26, a Su-30SM fighter of the Russian Aerospace Forces flew from Baranavichy airfield to the area of Zhlobin (Homiel region) and Babruisk airfield (Mahiliou region).
Railroad activity
- On September 27, a military cargo train with equipment of the 191st Artillery Group of the 19th Mechanized Brigade was being formed at Veraitsy station (Asipovichy district).
Movements by road
- No movements of the Russian Armed Forces were recorded.
- Single vehicles and small convoys (up to 10 pieces) of the Belarusian Armed Forces were spotted in Minsk, Ziabrauka, and on some sections of the М9, R31, R34, R40, R42, and others highways.
General conclusion on current situation
1) The An-12 military transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces once again arrived at Homiel airport. Probably, the arrival of the aircraft is connected with the rotation of the Russian contingent located at Ziabrauka and Mazyr (Bokau) airfields.
According to available information, an anti-aircraft missile divizion of the 1530th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment of the Russian Armed Forces (military unit 31458) is stationed at each of the airfields. The regiment is part of the Eastern Military District and was redeployed to Belarus to take part in the Union Resolve-2022 drills back in early February 2022.
Previously, we recorded the rotation of the Russian military in December 2023, mid-February, late March, late April, late June and late July 2024. On average, arrivals of military transport aircraft at Homiel airport are recorded once every month and a half.
2) The situation with the Belarusian group deployed in Homiel region hasn’t changed dramatically. As of September 30, the size of the group can still be estimated at ≈1600 people. This is the minimum and confirmed number of troops. The number of redeployed units will be updated as new information becomes available.
No redeployment of new units to the border area with Ukraine has been recorded. According to our sources, the Granit special forces detachment of the 1st Militia Brigade (military unit 5448, Minsk) is stationed in Yelsk. Earlier it was reported about the redeployment of other special forces units of the Internal Troops to the border area with Ukraine. Also several BM-21 Grad MLRS were spotted near Zhuki (Yelsk district). The systems probably belong to artillery units of the Special Operations Forces, whose redeployment to Homiel region was reported earlier.
In the report on military activity for September 9-15, we wrote about the probable rotation of units of the Belarusian Armed Forces, redeployed to Homiel region, in early October. Currently, there are no signs of rotation.
