Military activity on the territory of Belarus on September 2-8

Aviation activity, movements of the troops by rail and roads in Belarus.

The number of the Belarusian group, concentrated near the border with Ukraine, can be estimated at ≈ 1600 people. This is the minimum and confirmed number of troops. The number of redeployed units will be updated as new information becomes available.

There were active flights of aircraft and helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force. Most of the flights were connected with: 1) interception of Russian drones of the Shahed-136/131 type; 2) deployment of the Belarusian group in Homiel region.

No flights of aircraft and helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded in the airspace of Belarus.

Aviation activity

Aviation activity was recorded at Machulishchy, Lida, Baranavichy, Babruisk, Ziabrauka, Barautsy airfields, etc. Flights of aircraft and helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force were recorded.

Belarusian Air Force

•  Most of the flights of the Belarusian Air Force were connected with: 1) interception of Russian drones of the Shahed-136/131 type; 2) deployment of the Belarusian group in Homiel region.
• On September 2-6 and 8, flights of fighters of the Belarusian Air Force from Baranavichy airfield were recorded in the southern and southeastern regions of Belarus.
• On September 3, 5 and 7, flights of Su-25 attack aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force from Babruisk airfield were recorded in the southern regions of Belarus.
• On September 4, a Mi-8 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield through Pinsk district and further to Mikashevichy. The helicopter stayed in Mikashevichy for about 2 hours, after which it returned to Machulishchy airfield.
• On September 4, two Mi-8 helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Barautsy airfield. On September 5, one of the helicopters flew to the Losvida training ground.
• On September 4 and 6, a Mi-24 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield through Babruisk airfield to the southeast of Belarus.
• On September 5, a Mi-8 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to the southeastern regions of Belarus.
• On September 6, a Mi-8 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Charatsianka (Zhytkavichy district). Later the helicopter flew to Ziabrauka airfield. Then the helicopter flew to Babruisk. Later it returned to Machulishchy airfield through Ziabrauka airfield and Charatsianka.
• On September 7, flights of fighters of the Belarusian Air Force were recorded in the central part of Belarus.
• On September 7, Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to the area of Smarhon/Vileika and Karelichy/Navahrudak.

Russian Aerospace Forces

• No flights were recorded.

Railroad activity

• On September 8, a military cargo train with equipment of the 105th Separate Mechanized Battalion of the 11th Mechanized Brigade arrived at Slonim station. The unit returned to its permanent deployment point after battalion tactical drills.

Movements by road

• Single vehicles of the Russian Armed Forces were spotted in Homiel, Mazyr and Mazyr district. The movements were related to activities of the anti-aircraft missile divizion of the 1530th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment of the Russian Armed Forces, located at Mazyr (Bokau) airfield.
• Single vehicles and small convoys (up to 10 pieces) of the Belarusian Armed Forces were spotted in Hrodna, Minsk, Biaroza, and on some sections of the М1, М3, М6, М9, М10, М14, R3, R13, R116 and others highways.

Separately, we should mention the following movements:

• On September 2, equipment of a unit of the radio-technical troops of the Belarusian Armed Forces was spotted in the vicinity of Sitnitsa (Luninets district): at least 4 radars, including the Opponent-GE.
• On September 3, equipment of the Belarusian Armed Forces was spotted in the vicinity of Karpeshy (Biaroza district): at least 4 launchers of the S-300 SAM system.
• On September 8, equipment of the Belarusian Armed Forces was spotted in the vicinity of Unorytsa and Aziorshchyna (Rechytsa district): at least 3 S-300 SAM launchers and a 5N63S command post.

General conclusion on current situation

As of September 9, the following units of the Belarusian Armed Forces were concentrated in Homiel region: 

Belarusian Armed Forces:

• the 339th Separate Mechanized Battalion of the 120th Mechanized Brigade (military unit 04104), 1) Homiel district; 2) Mazyr district. A total of 30 armored combat vehicles (BTR-82A), ≈350 people;
• the 355th Separate Tank Battalion of the 120th Mechanized Brigade (military unit 25853): 1) Homiel district – two tank companies, up to 20 T-72B tanks, ≈100 people; 2) Mazyr district – a tank company, up to 10 T-72B tanks, 50 people.
• the 357th Separate Parachute-Airborne Battalion of the 103rd Airborne Brigade (military unit 52500): 1) Charatsianka, Hrebeneuski, Zhytkavichy district; 2) the vicinity of Ziabrauka airfield, Homiel district. A total of 30 BTR-70MB1, ≈300 people;
• the 382nd Separate Air Assault Battalion of the 38th Air Assault Brigade (military unit 92800): Mazyr district – 30 BTR-82A, ≈300 people;
• the rocket artillery battery (BM-21 Grad MLRS) of the combined artillery divizion of the 38th Air Assault Brigade – Mazyr district, 6 BM-21 Grad MLRS, ≈50 people;
• units of the 5th Special Forces Brigade (military unit 89417) – the number of personnel and locations are unknown.
• the anti-aircraft missile-artillery battery (Tunguska anti-aircraft missile systems) of the anti-aircraft missile-artillery divizion of the 19th Mechanized Brigade (military unit 71327): Homiel district – 16 pieces of equipment, ≈50 people;
• 4 Su-25 attack aircraft of the 116th Assault Air Base (military unit 19764) – Babruisk airfield, 4 people;
• the anti-aircraft missile divizion (S-300PS SAM system) of the 15th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade (military unit 30151) – the vicinity of Unorytsa and Aziorshchyna, Rechytsa district, 5 self-propelled launchers, 5N63S command post, 76N6 radar, ≈70 people;
• the medical special forces detachment of the 432nd Main Military Clinical Medical Center of the Belarusian Armed Forces – Kalinkavichy,  ≈ 50 people;

Internal Troops, KGB, MIA:

• special forces units of the Internal Troops (Grom special forces detachment, military unit 6713; Shtorm special forces detachment, military unit 5526, Vitsiaz detachment, military unit 5524, etc.) – accommodated in a number of settlements in Homiel region (Mazyr, Khoiniki, Naroulya, Lelchytsy, Brahin, Loyeu), and Brest region (Stolin). In total, about 200 people;
• special forces units of the KGB and the Ministry of Internal Affairs: ≈50 people.

Probably, within the framework of the described activities, one of the units of the 2287th Separate Radio-Technical Battalion of the 8th Radio-Technical Brigade (military unit 25886) was deployed in the vicinity of Sitnitsa (Luninets district, Brest region, 10 kilometers from the border with Homiel region). In total, at least 4 radars (including the Opponent-GE), ≈30 people.

The following require confirmation of being redeployed to the border:

• a divizion of the Polonez/Polonez-M MLRS of the 336th Rocket Artillery Brigade (military unit 12180);
• a divizion of the Iskander-M MLRS of the 465th Missile Brigade (military unit 61732); 
• the 310th Artillery Group of the 120th Mechanized Brigade (military unit 28212);
• mechanized units of the Western Operational Command;
• a divizion (S-300PS SAM system) of the 115th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment (military unit 92504);
• a divizion (Buk SAM system) of the 120th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade (military unit 96577);
• former mercenaries of PMC Wagner.

Thus, as of September 9, the number of troops concentrated near the border with Ukraine could be ≈1600 people. This is the minimum confirmed number of troops of the established group. The number of the redeployed units is being clarified as new information becomes available.

The local authorities allocate civilian infrastructure for the deployment of units of the Belarusian Armed Forces. For example, the media reported about the transfer of a kindergarten building in Hrebeneuski (Zhytkavichy district, Homiel region) and a part of a student dormitory in Loyeu (Homiel region) to the military. According to available information, servicemen of the Belarusian Armed Forces were also accommodated in one of the dormitories in Lelchytsy (Homiel region).

The number of troops redeployed to Homiel region doesn’t pose a military threat to Ukraine. These events are an informational campaign of the Lukashenka regime in response to the launch of the military operation in Kursk region.

We can expect that units of the Belarusian Armed Forces will be stationed in Homiel region on a rotational basis in the coming months. The withdrawal of some units to the permanent deployment points will be affected, among other things, by the course of combat operations in Kursk region. However, the complete withdrawal of units of the Belarusian Armed Forces from Homiel region won’t take place yet.