Aviation activity, movements of the troops by rail and roads in Belarus.
Speaking about the situation on the Belarus-Ukraine border, one can note several trends. There is a minimization of media aggravation of the situation, as well as some indicators of military activity.
At the same time, some units of the Internal Troops will stay in the border area with Ukraine until at least the end of 2024. And a parachute battalion could be redeployed to Homiel region during the week.
During the week, activity of the Russian Aerospace Forces was recorded. 3 sorties of Su-30SM fighters were recorded at Baranavichy airfield. And 2 passenger aircraft arrived at Machulishchy airfield.
During the past week, the activity of the Belarusian Air Force was low. For example, if on October 7-13, 103 flight activity events were recorded, then on October 21-27 – only 27.
Aviation activity
Aviation activity was recorded at Machulishchy, Lida, Baranavichy, Luninets airfields, at Minsk National Airport, etc. Flights of aircraft and helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force and Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded.
Belarusian Air Force
- On October 21, a flight of a fighter of the Belarusian Air Force at Baranavichy airfield was recorded in the southeastern and southern regions of Belarus.
- On October 22, a Su-25 attack aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Lida airfield to Machulishchy airfield. On October 23, the aircraft returned to Lida.
- On October 23, two Mi-8 helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Luninets airfield. On October 25, the helicopters returned to Machulishchy.
In general, the period of October 21-27 was characterized by the lowest number of flight activity events in October. If 103 events were recorded on October 7-13, only 27 events were recorded on October 21-27.
A “flight activity event” means the takeoff or landing of an aircraft (or a helicopter) at an active airfield (airport) or landing sites located on terrain (including non-active airfields).
Russian Aerospace Forces
- On October 23, Tu-154 and Tu-214 passenger aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Machulishchy airfield from Moscow (Russia). The arrivals were connected with the joint Collegium of the Defense Ministries of Belarus and Russia held in Minsk.
- On October 23 and 25, flights of Su-30SM fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded at Baranavichy airfield. The flights were conducted, among other things, in the southeastern regions of Belarus. A total of three flights were recorded during the week.
Railroad activity
- No railroad activity was recorded.
Movements by road
- Single vehicles of the Russian Armed Forces were spotted in Mazyr, Homiel, Minsk district, and on some sections of the M10 highway. The movements were related to the deployment of the anti-aircraft missile divizion of the 1530th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment of the Russian Armed Forces at Mazyr (Bokau) and Ziabrauka airfields.
- Separately, we can note movements of vehicles of the former PMC Wagner in the vicinity of Babruisk on October 22.
- Single vehicles and small convoys (up to 10 pieces) of the Belarusian Armed Forces were spotted in Minsk, Yelsk, and on some sections of the М3, М8, М9, R31 and others highways.
Separately, we can mention the following:
- On October 21, a large convoy of military equipment (about 55 pieces) of a separate parachute airborne battalion of the 103rd Airborne Brigade was moving in Vitsiebsk.
- On October 27, a convoy of 10 T-72B tanks of the 120th Mechanized Brigade was moving in Minsk (Francyska Skaryny str.-Starynauskaya str.). The convoy was (presumably) moving from Aziaryshcha station to the military town of the brigade.
General conclusion on current situation
1) It is possible that the convoy of the separate parachute airborne battalion of the 103rd Airborne Brigade was headed for loading onto flatcars and then leaving for Homiel region. The purpose of the movements was to conduct rotation of another unit of the Special Operations Forces, which was carrying out tasks to “protect the state border” with Ukraine.
On October 27, in an interview with state media, the commander of the Special Operations Forces of the Belarusian Armed Forces, Vadzim Dzenisenka, for the first time exhaustively told that the Belarusian military in Homiel region were engaged in guarding ammunition depots (in Rechytsa, Homiel and Dobrush districts) and airfields (Ziabrauka, Mazyr (Bokau)).
2) The situation on the Belarus-Ukraine border deserves special attention. On October 27, in an interview with state media, Vadzim Dzenisenka, the commander of the Special Operations Forces of the Belarusian Armed Forces, said that “today the situation [on the border] is calm.” It cannot be said that even in early August 2024, when a number of units of the Belarusian Armed Forces and Internal Troops were urgently redeployed to Homiel region, the situation posed a threat to the national security of Belarus. Therefore, as it had happened before, the “escalation” on the border was gradually decreasing.
One of the obvious signs of the “calm situation” on the border is the media coverage of the situation that has been reduced to a minimum. For example, the Telegram channel of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus published the last publication about the performance of tasks by servicemen “to strengthen the sections of the State Border of the Republic of Belarus” back on September 30. In addition, the VoyenTV TV company has not issued any stories about “strengthening of the State border in the southern direction” for more than a month. Other state media have not published any new stories recently either.
Speaking about military activity in the border area, we can note a number of opposite trends. On the one hand, we record a decrease in the activity of flights of the Belarusian Air Force. On October 11, it was the last time that helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force flew to the settlements of Homiel region, where units of the Belarusian Armed Forces can be deployed. In September and early October, such flights were sometimes made several times a week.
For example, along the following route: on October 1, a Mi-8 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Charatsianka (Zhytkavichy district). Then the helicopter flew to Ziabrauka airfield and then to Babruisk airfield. Later, the helicopter returned to Machulishchy via Charatsianka.
Here we can mention the deployment of air defense units. On August 13-14, one of the divizions of the 15th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade (military unit 30151) was deployed between Unorytsa and Aziorshchyna in Rechytsa district. However, according to the latest information, the unit in the location mentioned above is no longer there. Probably, the redeployment of the divizion took place in mid-October. It is possible that the divizion could either return to the permanent deployment point (within or without rotation) or simply change its position.
On the other hand, the activity of units of the Internal Troops continues to be recorded. According to available information, for example, the Tornado special forces detachment of the 2nd Militia Brigade (military unit 3310) will be stationed in the border area with Ukraine at least until the end of 2024. The unit is stationed in the vicinity of Naroulia (Homiel region).
In general, we can state that the situation on the Belarus-Ukraine border gradually returns to the status quo, which existed until August 2024. Its essence was that 1-2 battalions of the Special Operations Forces were permanently stationed in Homiel region on a rotational basis. Their task was to guard Russian military facilities at Ziabrauka and Mazyr (Bokau) airfields, as well as the ammunition arsenal (bases) of the Belarusian Armed Forces. However, currently there is no complete return to “August 2024.” As practice shows, the situation can change at any moment (including under the influence of external factors or events).
