Aviation activity, movements of the troops by rail and roads in Belarus.
During the week, high aviation activity was recorded due to bilateral Air Force drills. After the completion of the drills, eight helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces flew from Baranavichy airfield to Russia. An Il-22PP (jamming aircraft) also flew to Russia.
Aviation activity
- Aviation activity was recorded at Machulishchy, Lida, Baranavichy, Vosautsy airfields, at Minsk National Airport and Mahiliou airport. Flights of aircraft and helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force and Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded.
- On May 27, an An-72 transport aircraft of the Russian Navy arrived at Minsk National Airport. The aircraft arrived at Minsk Civil Aviation Plant No. 407.
- On May 27, flights of helicopters of the 50th combined air base of the Belarusian Air Force were recorded near the western border of Belarus.
- On May 27-28, flights of an IL-22PP aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded at Lida airfield (jamming and aerial reconnaissance aircraft). On May 30, the aircraft left for Russia.
- On May 27, nine helicopters (Mi-8, Mi-24, Mi-35) flew from Machulishchy airfield to Vosautsy airfield. On May 30, the helicopters returned to Machulishchy airfield.
- On May 28, an An-26 military transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Machulishchy airfield from Russia. On May 29, the aircraft flew back to Russia.
- On May 30, two Il-76 military transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at the Minsk National Airport. Later the aircraft flew to Mahiliou airport. Probably, the arrivals are not related to military activity.
- On May 31, eight helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces (Mi-8, Mi-24) left Baranavichy airfield for Russia.
- On June 1, a Tu-134 passenger aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Russia.
- During the week, active flights of aircraft and helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force related to joint Air Force drills were recorded.
Rail activity
No rail activity was recorded.
Movements by road
- Movements of vehicles of the Russian Armed Forces were repeatedly recorded in Mazyr and its vicinity.
- Small convoys (up to 10 pieces), single vehicles and large convoys (10+ vehicles) of the Belarusian Armed Forces were spotted in Minsk, Barysau, Bobr, and on some sections of the М1, М4, М9, R19, R63, R85, and other highways.
General conclusion on current situation
On May 27-31, joint Air Force drills were held in Belarus, involving units of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces of Belarus, as well as the Russian Aerospace Forces. These were the second such drills in the past year and a half. Previously, joint Air Force drills were held in January 2023.
We would like to note several features of these drills.
— Timeline. Officially, the Air Force drills were to take place on May 27-31. However, the main phase of the drills took place on May 28-30. According to available information, there were no active flights in the airspace of Belarus on May 27 (only relocation of helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force was recorded). On May 31, the helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces, which arrived in Belarus to take part in the Air Force drills, left for Russia. Therefore, the drills ended earlier than planned (one day earlier).
We should also note that the drills were announced by the Ministry of Defense of Belarus on May 27. That is, the Air Force drills were not announced in advance.
— Russia’s participation in the drills. Only eight helicopters (Mi-8 and Mi-24) arrived in Belarus to take part in the Air Force drills. The rest of the aircraft that were to take part in the drills (Su-24MR reconnaissance aircraft and Su-30SM fighters) are permanently stationed at Baranavichy airfield. For comparison, in 2023, eight fighters/bombers, twelve helicopters (including Ka-52), as well as an A-50 AEW&C aircraft participated in the Air Force drills on behalf of the Russian Armed Forces.
The main flights during the Air Force drills were performed by pilots of the Belarusian Air Force. The participation of the Russian Aerospace Forces in the drills was limited. This was recognized even by the Belarusian military themselves. For example, the main tasks during the drills were realized by the command and headquarters of the air bases of the Belarusian Air Force, as well as by the flight crews. At the same time, the Russian military “shared their experience” with their Belarusian colleagues.
We may assume that due to losses in equipment suffered by the Russian Armed Forces, as well as active combat operations, the Russian military could no longer allocate significant forces to participate in the drills.
— Coverage of the drills in the information resources of the Ministry of Defense of Russia. Only on May 31, the last day of the drills, the agency published a press release. The published video contained footage previously shown by VoyenTV (the TV company of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus). Only one Su-24MR aircraft could be seen in the video, as well as a Mi-24 helicopter of the Russian Aerospace Forces. This is an indirect confirmation of the limited participation of the Russian Aerospace Forces in the drills.
It is notable that the Ministry of Defense didn’t mention the Air Force drills of 2023 at all in its resources.
— The management of the drills was handed over to the Belarusian party. This once again emphasizes their unimportance for the Russian party. The situation was similar during the Air Force drills of 2023.
Comparing the Air Force drills of 2023 and 2024, we can state that the 2023 drills were larger in scale. An important consequence of the 2023 Air Force drills was that the aviation group of the Russian Aerospace Forces, which took part in the drills, was withdrawn from Belarus only in August 2023. At the same time, the helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces left Belarus right after the Air Force drills of 2024.
Taking into account that the participation of the Russian Aerospace Forces in the drills was limited, we can state that they were not of significant importance to the Russian Armed Forces. The conduct of the Air Force drills could have been:
1) Part of the Russian PSYOP, aimed at demonstrating the threat of a new possible invasion of Ukraine from the territory of Belarus (amid the information about the probable redeployment of the Russian contingent to Belarus);
2) A scheduled combat training event of the Belarusian Air Force and Russian Aerospace Forces;
In turn, the Belarusian pilots once again improved their training level during the drills.
In the near future, one can expect an expansion of the aviation group of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Belarus. This is due to the announced participation of the Russian military in the parade to take place on July 3.
