Aviation activity, movements of the troops by rail and roads in Belarus.
Eight helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Baranavichy airfield from Russia. On May 21-24, high aviation activity of the Russian Aerospace Forces was recorded due to Putin’s visit to Minsk. Some units of the Air Defense Forces, providing security for the Mazyr oil refinery, returned to the permanent deployment point.
Aviation activity
- Aviation activity was recorded at Machulishchy, Lida, Baranavichy, Vosautsy airfields, at Minsk National Airport and Mahiliou airport. Flights of aircraft and helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force and Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded.
- On May 20, a Tu-134 passenger aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Novosibirsk.
- On May 20, Il-76 military transport aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Russia. On May 23, the aircraft arrived at Baranavichy airfield. In the evening of the same day, the aircraft flew to Machulishchy airfield.
- On May 20, two Mi-8 and two Mi-24 helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Vosautsy airfield. On May 24, the helicopters returned to Machulishchy.
- On May 21, Il-22PP aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Lida airfield from Moscow (a jamming and aerial reconnaissance aircraft). On May 23 and 24, flights of the aircraft were recorded.
- On May 22-24, flights of helicopters of the 50th combined air base of the Belarusian Air Force were recorded near the western border of Belarus.
- On May 24, Tu-134 passenger aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Kubinka. In the evening, the aircraft returned to Machulishchy.
- On May 25, eight helicopters (Mi-8 and Mi-24) of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Baranavichy airfield from Seshcha airfield.
Separately, we should mention the aviation activity, which was recorded during the visit of Vladimir Putin to Belarus:
- On May 21, three Il-76 military transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Minsk National Airport from Moscow. In the evening of the same day, the aircraft flew to Mahiliou airport. On May 25, the aircraft flew to Moscow via the Minsk National Airport.
- On May 23, two Su-30SM fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Baranavichy airfield. On May 25, the aircraft left for Russia.
- On May 23, two Tu-214 passenger aircraft of the Special Flight Squad “Russia” arrived at Minsk National Airport from Moscow. Also, two Il-96 passenger aircraft of the Special Flight Squad “Russia” arrived at the airport (Vladimir Putin was on board one of the planes). On May 25, the two Il-96 flew to Moscow.
- On May 24, Tu-214 passenger aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Machulishchy airfield from Moscow. The aircraft brought Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov to Belarus. In the evening of the same day, the plane left for Moscow.
Rail activity
No rail activity was recorded.
Movements by road
- No movements of vehicles of the Russian Armed Forces were recorded.
- Small convoys (up to 10 pieces), single vehicles and large convoys (10+ vehicles) of the Belarusian Armed Forces were spotted in Hrodna, Babruisk, Minsk, Kalodzishchy, Lida, Dobrush district, and on some sections of the М1, М4, М5, М8, М9, and other highways. We note that the active movements in Minsk are related to the preparations for the military parade to take place on July 3.
Combat training
Combat training activities with units of the Belarusian Armed Forces were conducted at the Hozhski, Brestski, Losvida, Ruzhany, Barysauski training grounds, and at the Valoushchyna training center of the Internal Troops.
General conclusion on current situation
1) The expansion of the aviation group of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Belarus continues. For the first time since August 2023, eight helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived in Belarus.
Note. Over the past month, the aviation group of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Belarus has increased by three fighters and eight helicopters. A total of four Su-30SM fighters, two Su-24MR reconnaissance aircraft and eight helicopters (Mi-8, Mi-24) could be stationed at Baranavichy airfield. Also, Il-22PP aircraft has been stationed at Lida airfield since May 21. The arrival of the new helicopters (as well as fighters) was not officially commented on.
There is still an insignificant number of aircraft and helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Belarus. For example, until August 2023, 11 helicopters and 9 fighters were permanently stationed at Baranavichy and Machulishchy airfields.
Previously, we suggested that the arrival of Su-30SM fighters may be related to the activities of the so-called “combat training center” for joint training of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces of Belarus and Russia. The following versions of the arrival of the Russian helicopters to Belarus can be assumed:
— Participation in the military parade to be held on July 3. Earlier it was reported that Russia would send 17 aircraft to take part in the parade. Russian helicopters have previously participated in parades. For example, in 2014, 2016 and 2019, Ka-52 helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces took part in the parades. However, the participation of Mi-8/24 helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Belarusian parades hasn’t been practiced before.
— Preparation for future military drills (the nearest publicly announced major joint drills are to take place in 2025). It is possible that aair force drills, which haven’t been announced in advance, will take place. The participation of the redeployed aviation equipment in the drills on the use of tactical nuclear weapons that Russia has launched (Belarus is expected to join them later) looks unlikely.
It is not clear how long the helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces will stay in Belarus. Past experience shows that, for example, after participating in the drills, the helicopters can stay in Belarus for more than half a year.
2) On May 25, it was reported that one of the units of the 147th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment returned to the permanent deployment point “from the area of task fulfillment”. The unit marched in a combined manner (by rail and public roads).
We remind that in April, servicemen of the 147th Regiment were redeployed to guard the Mazyr oil refinery. In total, they were in Yelsk district for almost a month and a half. It can be expected that as part of the rotation another unit of the 147th Regiment will be sent to protect the refinery.
According to available information, another air defense unit, also performing tasks to protect the Mazyr oil refinery (the 1146th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment), is still stationed in Yelsk district.
3) On May 21, the Russian Defense Ministry announced the start of the first stage of drills with practical training in the preparation and use of non-strategic nuclear weapons. Belarus is to join the drills at the second stage. A number of resources reported that the deployment of MiG-31K fighters (carriers of the Kinzhal hypersonic missiles) will take place at one of the airfields in Belarus. We note that the last time the aircraft were in Belarus was in April 2023.
Currently, the arrival of the aircraft in Belarus is not recorded.
