Aviation activity, movements of the troops by rail and roads in Belarus.
On June 21, a sudden readiness inspection of units of the Belarusian Armed Forces began. Units of the anti-aircraft missile, artillery and air assault brigades are taking part in the inspection. A group of 11 helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived in Belarus to participate in the parade. During the week, flights of helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force were recorded at Luninets and Ziabrauka airfields.
Aviation activity
- Aviation activity was recorded at Machulishchy, Lida, Baranavichy, Ziabrauka, Luninets, Babruisk airfields, and at Brest airport. Flights of aircraft and helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force and Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded.
- On June 17, an An-26 military transport aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Kubinka airfield (Russia). On June 18, the aircraft arrived back.
- On June 18 and 22, flights of Su-30SM fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded at Baranavichy airfield. On June 18, an Il-76 military transport aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force flew to Russia from Machulishchy airfield. On June 21, the aircraft returned back.
- On June 18, a Mi-8 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force arrived at Ziabrauka airfield. On June 18 and 19, parachute jumps were conducted at the airfield.
- On June 19, an An-26 military transport aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Russia. On June 20, the plane returned back.
- On June 19, 16 aircraft (Su-25 attack aircraft, Yak-130 and L-39 combat trainers) of the 116th Assault Air Base of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Lida airfield to Machulishchy airfield. The relocation of the aircraft is connected with preparations for participation in the parade, which will be held on July 3.
- On June 20, a Tu-154 passenger aircraft of the Russian FSB arrived at Brest airport from Moscow. The aircraft brought a delegation of the Russian FSB to participate in the commemorative events dedicated to the beginning of the Great Patriotic War (June 22).
- On June 21, 11 helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces (5 Mi-28, 5 Ka-52 and 1 Mi-26) of the 344th center for combat training and retraining of flight personnel of the Russian Defense Ministry arrived at Machulishchy airfield from Torzhok airfield (Russia). The arrival of helicopters is connected with participation in the parade, which will take place on July 3.
- During the week, flights of helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force to Luninets airfield were recorded. The activity may be connected with the combat readiness inspection, which started on June 21.
- No flights of helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force were recorded in the area of the western border of Belarus.
Rail activity
On June 21, a military cargo train with equipment of the Belarusian Armed Forces was spotted at Lakamatsiunaye Depo station (Baranavichy). The train included 7 Osa-AKM SAM systems.
Movements by road
- Single vehicles of the Russian Armed Forces were spotted in Mazyr and Homiel districts.
- Small convoys (up to 10 pieces) and single vehicles of the Belarusian Armed Forces were spotted in Minsk and on some sections of the М2, М3, R23, and other highways.
General conclusion on current situation
1) On June 21, a sudden readiness inspection of units of the Belarusian Armed Forces to perform their assigned tasks began. The inspection is a reaction to the statements of the State Border Committee of Belarus about the alleged increase in the number of Ukrainian troops near the Belarusian border.
Currently, there are several features of the inspection that can be noted:
— One of the main tasks being practiced during the inspection is to cover the southern border with Ukraine in cooperation with other security agencies (State Border Committee, Ministry of Internal Affairs). Similar tasks (covering the western border) were practiced during the combat readiness inspection in March-May 2024.
— As part of the inspection, there is no conscription of conscripts from the reserve to staff the units participating in the inspection. In other words, the military hasn’t yet been tasked with working out mobilization measures.
— Small but heterogeneous forces are involved in the inspection. As of now, we can state that the following forces are involved in the inspection: front-line aviation forces (several helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force), a divizion of the 15th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade (S-300PS SAM systems), a rocket artillery battery (Grad MLRS) of the 51st Artillery Brigade, up to one divizion (Polonez MLRS) of the 336th Rocket Artillery Brigade and up to a battalion of the 38th Air Assault Brigade. The units of the latter are carrying out tasks on a rotational basis to strengthen the protection of the border with Ukraine. During the inspection, the number of forces and means involved will be increased, as there have been no reports so far on the participation of units from the operational commands of the Ground Forces.
The planned duration of the inspection hasn’t been announced yet. The scale of the ongoing inspection allows us to state that it doesn’t pose a military threat to Ukraine.
2) As noted in the report on military activity on the territory of Belarus on June 10-16, “the announced composition of equipment in the parade on July 3 from the Russian Armed Forces looks very limited.” Moreover, some models that the Russian military sent to participate in the parade (for example, mortars and towed howitzers) will participate in it on behalf of the Belarusian Armed Forces.
There were no reports on the arrival of military cargo trains with wheeled or tracked vehicles of the Russian Armed Forces during the past week. At the same time, 11 helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived in Machulishchy to take part in the parade. And given that the parade is only a week and a half away, the arrival of new military cargo trains with wheeled or tracked vehicles of the Russian Armed Forces is unlikely. After all, there is practically no time left for rehearsals and training of the mechanized convoy.
The absence of modern military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces will indicate, among other things, that it is impossible to allocate it for participation in the parade due to the high intensity of combat operations. And, as a consequence, high losses in equipment.
3) On the night of June 21-22, Russia launched another missile attack against the territory of Ukraine. Ukrainian monitoring resources reported that a number of missiles may have flown over the territory of Belarus. In particular, two groups of Russian missiles flew over Brahin district of Homiel region, near Kamaryn. Flights of Russian missiles over Homiel region were also recorded in April 2024.
Earlier we wrote that there is still a potential threat of missile strikes from the territory of Belarus due to the extension of the flight restriction zone for civil aircraft in the south of Belarus until June 30, 2024.
It should be noted that units of the Radio-Technical Troops of the Belarusian Armed Forces (the 1052nd Separate Radio Technical Battalion of the 49th Radio Technical Brigade, Mazyr and Homiel districts) are deployed on the territory of Homiel region. Therefore, the Belarusian military must have recorded the flights of the missiles mentioned above. However, for obvious reasons, they didn’t make any attempts to destroy them.
