Aviation activity, movements of the troops by rail and roads in Belarus.
On June 10-12, the Belarusian Armed Forces took part in the second stage of drills with the non-strategic nuclear forces of Russia. The drills on the territory of Belarus were conducted with the participation of units of the 12th Main Directorate of Russia’s Defense Ministry.
Another military cargo train with equipment of the Russian Armed Forces arrived in Belarus to take part in the military parade. The equipment included Msta-B towed howitzers and 2S12 Sani mortars, which are in service with the Belarusian Armed Forces.
Aviation activity
- Aviation activity was recorded at Machulishchy, Lida, Baranavichy airfields, and at Brest airport. Flights of aircraft and helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force and Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded.
- On June 10, an An-26 military transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces flew from Baranavichy airfield to Russia. The plane had been in Belarus since June 4.
- On June 10, an IL-18D passenger aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Machulishchy airfield. The aircraft was used to fly over the border of the so-called “Union State” with a religious icon on board.
- On June 11, 12 and 15, flights of Su-30SM fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded at Baranavichy airfield.
- On June 12, high aviation activity of the Belarusian Air Force was recorded due to the participation of the Belarusian Armed Forces in the drills with non-strategic nuclear forces of Russia.
- On June 14, flights of helicopters of the 50th combined air base of the Belarusian Air Force were recorded near the western border of Belarus.
- On June 16, an Il-76 military transport aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Russia.
Rail activity
- On June 10, a military cargo train with equipment of the Belarusian Armed Forces was spotted between Kalodzishchy and Aziaryshcha stations.
- On June 13, another military cargo train with servicemen and equipment of the Russian Armed Forces arrived at Aziaryshcha station to take part in the military parade to take place on July 3. The military cargo train included Msta-B howitzers, 2S12 Sani mortars and other equipment.
- On June 14, a military cargo train with equipment of the Belarusian Armed Forces was spotted at Orsha-Tsentralnaya station.
Movements by road
- Single vehicles of the Russian Armed Forces were repeatedly spotted in Mazyr and its vicinity.
- Small convoys (up to 10 pieces), single vehicles and large convoys (10+ vehicles) of the Belarusian Armed Forces were spotted in Minsk, Hrodna, Yelsk, Minsk district, and on some sections of the М1, М4, М6, М9, R42, R62, and other highways.
General conclusion on current situation
1) On June 10-12, the Belarusian Armed Forces took part in the second stage of drills with Russia’s non-strategic nuclear forces. Based on the available information, we can state that the number of forces and means involved in the drills from the Belarusian Armed Forces (two Su-25 attack aircraft and at least one Iskander-M missile system) was insignificant.
Based on the information provided about the drills, we can note that tactical nuclear weapons (in case they are deployed on the territory of Belarus) will be controlled by the Russian military from the 12th Main Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Russia (including their storage and delivery to the units of the Belarusian Armed Forces). The task of the Belarusian military will be only the “combat use” of nuclear munitions.
2) On June 13, another military cargo train with personnel and equipment of the Russian Armed Forces arrived at Aziaryshcha station. This is the second military cargo train that has been publicly reported. It should be noted what kind of equipment of the Russian Armed Forces will be presented at the parade on July 3. So far these are T-34 tanks, Msta-B 152-mm towed howitzers and 2S12 “Sani” 120-mm mortars.
If the participation of rare T-34 tanks in the parade can still be explained somehow, other vehicles raise questions. First, both Msta-B howitzers and 2S12 Sani mortars are in service with artillery units of the Belarusian Armed Forces. Second, they will participate in the parade on July 3 from the Belarusian Armed Forces anyway.
In previous years, Russia has provided more serious technical representation at military parades in Belarus. For example, in 2019, the Russian Armed Forces took part in the parade in Minsk with BTR-82A armored personnel carriers (have been in service with the Belarusian Armed Forces since 2021), Iskander missile systems (have been in service with the Belarusian Armed Forces since 2022), UAZ off-road vehicles, and others. In 2015, Russian T-90 tanks, BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles, BMD-2 airborne infantry fighting vehicles, BTR-82A armored personnel carriers, Tigr armored vehicles, Msta-S self-propelled howitzers, Pantsir systems took part in the parade. In 2014, the parade also involved S-400 SAM systems (have been in service with the Belarusian Armed Forces of Belarus since 2022).
To be fair, it should be noted that over the past years, the Belarusian Armed Forces have received a number of armaments that were previously used by the Russian Armed Forces in parades. In this regard, it would be logical to send models of equipment that are not in service with the Belarusian Armed Forces to participate in the parade. However, the Russian military went the other way and apparently sent what was available.
So far, the announced composition of equipment in the parade on July 3 from the Russian Armed Forces looks very limited. It is possible that more military cargo trains with equipment will arrive in Belarus in the near future.
The lack of “serious” military equipment at the parade in Minsk will indicate the inability (or unwillingness) to find equipment to participate in the event due to the high intensity of combat operations. And, as a consequence, high losses.
