Aviation activity, movements of the troops by rail and roads in Belarus.
During the week, a passenger aircraft of the Rosgvardiya and a military transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived in Belarus. Also, aircraft and helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force took off to intercept Russian drones that flew into the airspace of Belarus.
The statements made on July 13 by Lukashenka and his officials confirm that the escalation of the situation on the Belarus-Ukraine border was part of the PSYOP conducted on the eve of the Independence Day celebrations in Belarus.
Aviation activity
Aviation activity was recorded at Machulishchy, Lida, Baranavichy, Luninets, Barautsy, Vosautsy airfields, and at Hrodna and Brest airport. Flights of aircraft and helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force and Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded.
Belarusian Air Force
- On July 9, two Mi-8 helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Luninets airfield. On July 12, the helicopters returned to Machulishchy.
- On July 9, a flight of a Mi-8 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force was recorded from Machulishchy airfield along the northwestern part of Belarus.
- On July 10, Mi-8 and Mi-35M helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Barautsy airfield.
- On July 11, a fighter of the Belarusian Air Force (from Baranavichy airfield) and a Mi-24 helicopter (from Machulishchy airfield) flew to Homiel region to intercept a Russian Shahed-136/131 drone.
- On July 13, a fighter of the Belarusian Air Force (from Baranavichy airfield) and a Mi-24 helicopter (from Machulishchy airfield) flew to the northeast of Minsk and Vitsiebsk regions to intercept a Russian Shahed-136/131 drone.
- On July 13, fighters of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Baranavichy airfield to Homiel district and southeastern Belarus.
- On July 13, an Il-76 military transport aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Taldykorgan (Kazakhstan). The aircraft transported a group of servicemen of the Belarusian Armed Forces to participate in the drills “Pinnacle of Brotherhood-2024”. On July 14, the plane came back.
- On July 14, fighters of the Belarusian Air Force flew twice from Baranavichy airfield to the south of Belarus.
- On July 10, a Tu-134 passenger aircraft of the Russian Rosgvardiya arrived at Hrodna airport from Moscow. The purpose of the aircraft’s arrival is unknown.
- On July 11, an Il-76 military transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Machulishchy airfield from Moscow.
Rail activity
- On July 8, a military cargo train with equipment of the Belarusian Armed Forces was spotted at Kozenki station. Judging by the equipment, the military cargo train belonged to one of the special forces units of the Belarusian Armed Forces.
- On July 12, a military cargo train with equipment of the 350th Artillery Group of the 6th Mechanized Brigade of the Belarusian Armed Forces was spotted at Lasosna station (Hrodna). The units were probably on their way to field drills.
- On July 12, a military cargo train with equipment of the 111th Artillery Brigade was being formed in Brest. The units were headed for field drills. On July 14, the military cargo train arrived at Palonka station (Brest district).
Movements by road
- Single vehicles of the Russian Armed Forces were repeatedly spotted in Mazyr district.
- Small convoys (up to 10 pieces) and single vehicles of the Belarusian Armed Forces were spotted in Brest, Minsk, and on some sections of the М1, М5, М9, R11, R19, R31, R36, R62, and other highways.
General conclusion on current situation
1) We can state that on July 13, after the meeting “on the issues of ensuring the military security of the country in the southern operational direction” was held in Luninets, the “sudden readiness inspection of the Belarusian Armed Forces” and the escalation of the situation on the Belarus-Ukraine border, which started on June 21, were completed. As a result of the meeting, it was decided to return the units of the Belarusian Armed Forces to the permanent deployment points, as Ukraine withdrew its units from the border area with Belarus. However, the units of the Special Operations Forces will stay in the border area with Ukraine. According to Lukashenka, “We are not going to fight and are not going to concentrate our Armed Forces here, except for the Special Operations Forces.”
We recall that units of the Special Operations Forces have been stationed on a rotational basis in the regions of Belarus bordering Ukraine since March 2022. We recorded the last rotation during the week of July 1-7, 2024. In addition to border protection, the units also perform tasks to protect Russian military facilities in Homiel region.
Thus, the situation with the group of the Belarusian Armed Forces in the border area with Ukraine is returning to its status quo.
The completion of the “sudden readiness inspection of the Belarusian Armed Forces” was preceded by a complete lack of information about its progress. For example, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus didn’t cover the inspection and the situation on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border at all since July 5.
We should pay attention to the inconsistencies in the statements of Belarusian officials. For example, on July 13, Chairman of the State Security Committee Ivan Tsertsel said that Ukraine started to withdraw its units from the border on July 3-4. At the same time, on July 5, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces Uladzimir Kuprianyuk said that the situation on the border remained tense. And at the time of Kuprianyuk’s statement there was no talk about any de-escalation. There is a contradiction of information given by representatives of different agencies (Ministry of Defense of Belarus and KGB).
The statements made on July 13 by Lukashenka and his officials during the meeting confirm the version that the “sudden readiness inspection of the Belarusian Armed Forces” and the escalation of the situation on the Belarus-Ukraine border were part of PSYOP, conducted (among other things) ahead of the celebration of Independence Day in Belarus on July 3.
For example, during the meeting on July 13, Lukashenka said that speaking at the solemn meeting in honor of Independence Day on July 2, he had to mention the situation on the Belarus-Ukraine border: “I had to reassure the people, as far as possible, that there would be no war, we wouldn’t allow escalation on our border. […] That is, there was serious anxiety of our people. In this regard, a decision was made to deploy some of our units to the border.” And as a result, “As I said, I promised people that we will deal with the situation.” Moreover, as noted above, coincidentally, it was “July 3-4” that the withdrawal of Ukrainian units from the border area with Belarus began.
In other words, the escalation on the Belarus-Ukraine border was artificially created by the Lukashenka regime to pursue its own goals. And then it was quickly and effectively “resolved”. It turns out that Lukashenka kept his promise “not to allow war” and “handled the situation.”
It should be noted that “July 3″ could have been one of the goals of PSYOP. Therefore, it should be considered in a broader context of the current events.
2) Military intensification on the western border of Belarus can be expected in the near future. For example, during the meeting on July 13, Lukashenka spoke about the military threat from the northwestern direction: “There is intensification there. Therefore, the northwestern direction – the guys should be ready for anything there.”
The northwestern direction is the sections of the Belarus-Lithuania and Belarus-Latvia borders. The task of covering these directions is performed by the Northwestern Operational Command of the Ground Forces.
We recall that in April-May, units of the 19th Mechanized Brigade were redeployed to the area bordering Lithuania. Later, they were replaced by a battalion tactical group of the 120th Mechanized Brigade. According to available information, units of the 120th Mechanized Brigade will again be redeployed to the area bordering Lithuania in the near future (approximately early August).
