Aviation activity, movements of the troops by rail and roads in Belarus.
Due to the completion of tactical drills conducted as part of the combat readiness inspection, as well as field drills, there were active movements of troops by rail. Also, during the past week, we recorded flights of helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force along the western border of Belarus, and flights of fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces at Baranavichy airfield.
Aviation activity
- Aviation activity was recorded at Machulishchy, Lida, Baranavichy, Babruisk, and Luninets airfields, as well as at Minsk National Airport. Flights of aircraft and helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force and Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded.
- On April 8, An-124 transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Baranavichy airfield from Bangladesh. Later the aircraft flew to Ulyanovsk (Russia).
- On April 8, 11, 12, 13 and 14, flights of helicopters of the 50th combined air base of the Belarusian Air Force were recorded in the area of the western border of Belarus.
- On April 9, a Mi-8 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew to Ashmiany district.
- On April 10-12, flights of fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded at Baranavichy airfield.
Rail activity
- On April 8, a military cargo train with equipment of the 231st Artillery Brigade of the Belarusian Armed Forces arrived at Zaslonava station. The unit was returning to the permanent deployment point after completing field drills.
- On April 12, a military cargo train with equipment of the 740th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment went from Liasnaya station to Barysau. The unit was returning to the permanent deployment point after the completion of field drills.
- On April 12, a military cargo train with equipment of the 111th Artillery Brigade of the Belarusian Armed Forces was being formed at Palonka station. On April 13, the military cargo train arrived in Brest. The brigade’s units were returning to the permanent deployment point after the completion of field drills.
- On April 13-14, military cargo trains with equipment of the 19th Mechanized Brigade arrived at Zaslonava station. The units were returning to their permanent deployment point after participating in brigade tactical drills.
Movements by road
- Single vehicles of the Russian Armed Forces were spotted in Mazyr and Mazyr district.
- Small convoys (up to 10 pieces), single vehicles, and large convoys (10+ pieces) of the Belarusian Armed Forces were spotted in Minsk, Hrodna, Mazyr, Yelsk, Slonim, Zhabinka district, Zaslonava, and on some sections of the М3, М5, R17, R23, R91, and other highways.
Combat training
Combat training activities with units of the Belarusian Armed Forces were conducted at the Hozhski, Lepelski, Maryina Horka, Staradarozhski, Uruchcha, Barysauski, Obuz-Liasnouski, Asipovichski, Damanava, Chapialiova training grounds, as well as at the “Khrenin’s line” (Zhabinka district) and in some areas (Ashmiany and Pastavy districts).
Changes in the size of the Russian Armed Forces group and PMC Wagner in Belarus: no data.
General conclusion on current situation
1) We can state that the season of field drills (in missile and artillery units, military air defense, etc.) has come to an end. Over the past two weeks, most of the units have returned from field drills to their permanent deployment points. The “seasonality” of field drills is affected, among other things, by the timing of the dismissal of conscripts who have completed their terms of service.
2) Tactical drills with the 19th Mechanized Brigade and the 120th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade were the culmination of the combat readiness inspection conducted since March 11. The units staffed with reservists began returning to their permanent deployment points. After the equipment is maintained and put into long-term storage, the conscripts will return home.
The issue of the units of the 19th Mechanized Brigade deployed in Ashmiany and Pastavy districts remains open. Initially, these units were redeployed to the border as part of the ongoing combat readiness inspection. It is possible that units of the Belarusian Armed Forces will be permanently (on a rotational basis) deployed in the area bordering Lithuania “to cover the state border”. As, for example, has been happening in Homiel region since 2022.
Such a hypothesis can be put forward, among other things, based on Lukashenka’s statements about the deployment of American and German “battalion tactical groups” at the Pabrade training ground (Lithuania).
