Telling the details.
In the past few days, we have received a lot of information related to the PMC Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin and Belarus. Various, sometimes condractive data was published in the media, pro-military Telegram channels, and reported by people.
As of 09:00 on June 29, the Belarusian Hajun believes that part of the information and statements spread in various sources is a planned disinformation campaign, but there was truth among them.
Everything mentioned in the publication is valid as of 9:00, 29.06.
Was Prigozhin in Belarus?
We believe that Yevgeny Prigozhin was in Belarus on June 27. There’s currently no information about the purpose of his visit, as well as possible further activities. There’s also no info whether he flew on his business jet to Moscow yesterday evening or stayed in Minsk.
Have the mercenaries of the PMC Wagner arrived in Belarus?
The mercenaries of the PMC Wagner haven’t arrived in Belarus yet. But the transfer of mercenaries may take place in the near future. As in case with Prigozhin, it’s unclear what the mercenaries will do in Belarus. And this depends on what kind of property (weapons) they will arrive in Belarus with.
Will the Wagner group be preparing an attack from Belarus in the near future?
Given the likely transfer of heavy weapons from the PMC to the Russian Ministry of Defense, we should not expect a military operation by the PMC from the territory of Belarus against Ukraine in the near future.
Will the Wagner PMC join the Belarusian Armed Forces?
The formation of unit(s) consisting of Wagner mercenaries in the Belarusian Armed Forces looks unlikely, since the Belarusian Ministry of Defense has no financial resources to pay a large number of mercenaries salaries that they received for their participation in the war against Ukraine.
Can they train the military in Belarus?
Training of the Belarusian military (which was mentioned by Lukashenko) is possible, but this task is short-term. The training (retraining) and sharing combat experience won’t last forever. What the mercenaries will do after completing this task is unclear.
A new field camp will be set up in Belarus?
A number of factors indicate that this is indeed true. At the moment, works are being carried out on the territory of the former military unit No. 61732 in Tsel village (Asipovichy district, Mahiliou region), where the 465th Missile Brigade of the Belarusian Armed Forces was previously deployed.
What exactly is going on there?
There has been a lot of information in recent days that workers from various parts of the country with their construction equipment are being transported there. According to various reports, the work began on Sunday (25.06) or Monday (26.06).
We’d like to note that this data is still being checked and is not fully verified, however, here is what they say about what is going on there:
- “They build bunk beds and toilets”;
- “they laid new asphalt”;
- “they set power lines”;
- “the construction of bunk beds made of wood is underway”;
- “there is a general cleaning of the territory”;
- “they’re assembling benches and tables”;
- “they set up tents.”
Is there any confirmation besides words?
Yes. There are changes on satellite images. Comparing the images dated June 9 and June 27, you can see changes in at least 6 areas on the territory of the former military unit.
Changes on the territory of the former military unit 61732, Tsel village (Asipovichy district), June 27 and June 9 Belarusian Hajun
At least the area is definitely being cleaned, and there is no sand between the barracks where it used to be. In the northern part, we can also see signs of work.
More detailed images for 27.06 were published by Radio Svaboda. They show that in the northern part of the military unit only, there are changes in 5 areas and there are multiple objects. These could be both tents and equipment.
Former military unit near Tsel village on June 27 and June 17 Radio Svaboda
If we compare the image with the data that tents are being set up, then, apparently, a large tent camp is being set up. In this case, only in the largest area, we can see at least 6,5 rows of +-20 objects = 130. If these are large tents, then there may be up to 50 people in one tent, i.e. up to 6500 people in 130 tents.
Rows of objects near Tsel village, 27.06 Radio Svaboda
Will the PMC Wagner be stationed there?
It is not yet known who exactly will be stationed there, and whether they will be at all. The works performed there and the current satellite images do not indicate that the PMC Wagner will be stationed there. Just as the information spread about the allegedly urgent orders for the production of furniture and equipment for the military does not indicate this.
Thanks to information from the Belarusians, in the near future we will know exactly whether someone will be stationed there and who exactly.
We stress that the current state of the infrastructure of the military town near Tsel will require sufficient time to bring it to a usable condition. Yes, someone can live in tents, but it won’t take two days to repair the barracks.
Is this the only camp currently being set up in Belarus?
Right now this is the only place where the work held is confirmed.
Works on the territory of the former military unit near Tsel village Radio Svaboda
We also received unconfirmed information that field camps may appear in Hrodna, Minsk, and Vitsiebsk regions. Again, this information hasn’t been confirmed yet.
We recall that any information can help. Even if something doesn’t seem important to you, pleae still send information through your friends abroad to @HajunBYbot or through the contact form on the website. Thanks to all of you.
Our monitoring group has prepared a closed brief on the events of recent days, which is available to our colleagues and partners.