Aviation activity, movements of the troops by rail and roads in Belarus.
On August 10, units of the Belarusian Armed Forces began redeploying to Homiel region. The number of the redeployed forces doesn’t pose a threat to Ukraine. The escalation of the situation pursues informational and political, rather than military purposes.
Active flights of military transport aircraft and passenger aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force to Russia were recorded. This was connected with the drills at the Ashuluk training ground, as well as the participation of the Belarusian military in the “Army-2024” military-technical forum.
Movements of at least 9 military cargo trains with personnel and equipment of the Belarusian Armed Forces were recorded. The movements were related to both combat training activities of the Belarusian Armed Forces and redeployment of troops to the border with Ukraine.
A military transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Baranavichy airfield, and a passenger aircraft of the Rosgvardiya arrived at Minsk National Airport.
Aviation activity
Aviation activity was recorded at Machulishchy, Lida, Baranavichy, Babruisk, Luninets, Barautsy, Vosautsy airfields, and at Minsk National Airport. Flights of aircraft and helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force and Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded.
Belarusian Air Force- On August 6, 2 Mi-35M helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Lida airfield.
- On August 7, 9, 11-12 and 14-25, flights of fighters of the Belarusian Air Force from Baranavichy airfield were recorded in the southern regions of Belarus.
- On August 7 and 12, an Il-76 military transport aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Astrakhan (Russia). The aircraft was transporting servicemen of the Belarusian Armed Forces to take part in drills at the Ashuluk training ground.
- On August 9, a Mi-24 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to the south of Belarus and Babruisk airfield. On August 10, the helicopter returned to Machulishchy.
- On August 10, four Su-25 attack aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Lida airfield to Babruisk airfield. The attack aircraft are still stationed at the airfield.
- On August 10, an An-26 military transport aircraft flew twice from Lida airfield to Babruisk airfield.
- On August 11, 12 and 14, a Tu-134 passenger aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Kubinka airfield (Russia). The 10th International Military-Technical Forum “Army-2024” was held in Kubinka, where the Belarusian military also took part.
- On August 13, a Mi-35M helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew to the area of Homiel and Rechytsa via Babruisk airfield.
- On August 15, a Su-25 attack aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Lida airfield to Babruisk airfield.
- On August 15 and 17, a Mi-24 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Luninets airfield.
- On August 16, a Mi-24 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Mahiliou region and the border with Russia.
- On August 18, 20, 22 and 24, flights of Su-25 attack aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force were recorded at Babruisk airfield.
- On August 18 and 24, an Il-76 military transport aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Baranavichy airfield to Astrakhan (Russia).
- On August 18, two Su-30 fighters of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Baranavichy airfield to Russia. On August 24, the fighters returned from Russia. The aircraft took part in drills at the Ashuluk training ground.
- On August 19, an Il-76 military transport aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Baranavichy airfield to Volgograd (Russia).
- On August 20 and 22, a Mi-8 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Zhytkavichy district.
- On August 22, a Tu-134 passenger aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Astrakhan (Russia). On August 23, the aircraft returned to Machulishchy.
- On August 23, an Il-76 military transport aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Astrakhan (Russia).
- On August 23, 2 Mi-8 helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Luninets airfield.
- On August 8, a Tu-204 passenger aircraft of the Rosgvardiya arrived at Minsk National Airport from Moscow. In the evening of August 9, the aircraft left for Moscow.
- On August 22, an An-26 military transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Baranavichy airfield from Russia. On August 23, the aircraft left for Russia.
Rail activity
- On August 5, a military cargo train with equipment of the 15th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade was being formed at Aziaryshcha station. The unit was on its way to the Ashuluk training ground (Russia) to take part in the drills.
- On August 5-6, a military cargo train with equipment of the 56th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment and the 8th Radio-Technical Brigade was being formed at Luninets station. The units were on their way to the Ashuluk training ground (Russia) to participate in the drills.
- On August 11, a military cargo train with equipment of the 355th Separate Tank Battalion of the 120th Mechanized Brigade was being formed at Barysau station. On August 12, the train arrived at Navabelitskaya station (Homiel). After re-forming, part of the train went to Kozenki station (Mazyr).
- On August 14, a military cargo train with equipment of the 19th Mechanized Brigade arrived at Navabelitskaya station from Zaslonava station.
- On August 14, a train with freight and passenger cars was moving from Prudok station to Haradok station.
- On August 16, a military cargo train with equipment of the Belarusian Armed Forces was moving in Minsk (Stsiapianka station-Traktarny station).
- On August 16, a military cargo train with equipment of the Belarusian Armed Forces was moving in Hrodna (Pryharadny station-Hrodna station).
- On August 22, a military cargo train with equipment of the Belarusian Armed Forces was spotted at Kaidanava station (Dziarzhynsk). On August 23, the train arrived in Hrodna.
- On August 23, a military cargo train with equipment of the 231st Artillery Brigade of the Belarusian Armed Forces was being formed at Zaslonava station.
Movements by road
- Single vehicles of the Russian Armed Forces were spotted in Mazyr district. The movements were related to activities of the anti-aircraft missile divizion of the 1530th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment of the Russian Armed Forces, located at Mazyr (Bokau) airfield.
- Single vehicles and small convoys (up to 10 pieces) of the Belarusian Armed Forces were spotted in Hrodna, Brest, Linova (Pruzhany district), Homiel, Mazyr, Yelsk, Navapolatsk, Biaroza, and on some sections of the M1, M5, M10, M14, R23, R31, R35, R62, R67, R115, R122, R145, R148, N6038, N4162 and others highways.
Separately, we can mention a convoy of the 339th Separate Mechanized Battalion of the 120th Mechanized Brigade, which was moving along the M5 highway (Minsk-Babruisk) on August 10.
General conclusion on current situation
The intensification of movements of troops, as well as flights of aviation, are connected, among other things, with a new round of Lukashenka’s escalation of the situation on the Belarus-Ukraine border. The situation is similar to what already happened in June-July 2024. Using a formal pretext (UAVs that allegedly flew into Belarus), Lukashenka again began redeployment of troops to the border with Ukraine. However, unlike the “June escalation” of the situation, now the number of troops being redeployed to the border has increased. For example, for the first time since 2022, there was redeployment of mechanized units with heavy weapons to the border.
As of August 23, the number of troops at the border can be estimated at no less than 1100 people. This is the minimum and confirmed number of troops of the established group. The number of forces being redeployed to the border doesn’t pose a threat to Ukraine. The escalation of the situation pursues informational and political, rather than military purposes.
