There're 3 versions of why it's happening
According to Belarusian Hajun, a new unit is being formed within the Western Operational Command. It is an anti-aircraft missile regiment (troop air defense), military unit 96871.
The task of troop air defense units is to cover troops from enemy air attack during combat operations by general military formations.
It is known that the regiment will be stationed in the military town No. 99 “Vishniavets” (Hrodna, Slavinskaha Str., 2/1). The relevant infrastructure is being prepared for this purpose. It is possible that in the future, military unit 96871 will change its permanent deployment location.
Currently, units of the Western Operational Command are already accommodated in the military town No. 99 “Vishniavets”: one of the battalions of the 557th Engineering Brigade, the 74th Separate Signal Regiment, the 250th Separate Guard and Service Battalion, the 22nd Separate Special Forces Company, and the Hrodna Military Commandant’s Office (the latter is not part of the Western Operational Command).
The choice of the regiment’s location is not accidental. For example, before its disbandment in 2011, the 62nd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade of the Belarusian Armed Forces (military unit 16377, armed with the Osa SAM system) was stationed in the military town No. 99 “Vishniavets”.
Nothing is known yet about the armament that military unit 96871 will receive. Based on its purpose (troop air defense), we assume that the regiment will receive the Osa-AKM SAM system or its modernized versions (Osa-1B, Osa-2B).
We note that there is an anti-aircraft missile regiment in the structure of each operational command of the Ground Forces of the Belarusian Armed Forces. For example, the Western Operational Command includes the 147th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment (military unit 96869, Babruisk). The regiment is armed with the Osa-AKM SAM system.
The 147th Regiment became part of the Western Operational Command in 2017. Before that, it was part of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces as the 147th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade.
A legitimate question arises: what is the reason for the formation of the second anti-aircraft missile regiment within the Western Operational Command? No similar processes have been recorded in the Northwestern Operational Command so far.
Western Operational Command troops provide cover for the western operational direction, which includes Hrodna region and Brest regions. Therefore, all units of the Western Operational Command (except for the 147th Regiment) are stationed in Hrodna and Brest regions (garrisons in Hrodna, Slonim, Navahrudak, Baranavichy and Brest).
Given this, the 147th Regiment is notable for its geographical remoteness from other units of the Western Operational Command. For example, the distance from Babruisk to Hrodna is about 430 kilometers (by public roads). Therefore, for example, to participate in tactical drills with the 6th Mechanized Brigade, which were held in Hrodna region in August 2024, units of the 147th Regiment were redeployed by rail.
In general, the deployment of the 147th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment at a distance from other units of the Western Operational Command (which the regiment should cover by its functional purpose) is illogical. However, it is the result of historically developed circumstances. Therefore, the formation of a new anti-aircraft missile regiment in Hrodna is a justified step.
The question remains open as to why the 147th Regiment was not simply redeployed to Hrodna, but began to form a new unit in the city? There could be several reasons for this:
1) Changes in the organizational and staff structure of the Ground Forces
We may assume that the leadership of the Belarusian Armed Forces decided to form one more anti-aircraft missile regiment (troop air defense) within the operational commands (Western Operational Command, Northwestern Operational Command). However, the process of formation of the second anti-aircraft missile regiment within the Northwestern Operational Command is not recorded at the moment. Therefore, the version described above (so far) has no sufficient confirmation.
2) The 147th Regiment in Babruisk will be disbanded
After the completion of the formation of military unit 96871 in Hrodna, the 147th Regiment in Babruisk will be disbanded.
This version has two significant problems:
- Why form a “new” regiment if the “old” one can be redeployed? Especially since it is common practice for units of the Belarusian Armed Forces to change their permanent deployment points. For example, in 2022, the 310th Artillery Group was redeployed from Minsk to Barysau.
- In 2024, the barracks, headquarters and other facilities of the 147th Regiment were being renovated. Therefore, it is illogical to invest in improving its infrastructure before disbanding the unit.
3) Southern Operational Command
In May 2022, it was announced that the formation of the Southern Operational Command within the Belarusian Armed Forces would begin. It is known about the construction of a military town and a training ground for the Southern Operational Command in Homiel region. Little is known about the structure of the Southern Operational Command. It will probably be similar to the structures of the Western Operational Command and the Northwestern Operational Command.
In June 2023, we wrote that there are no large military garrisons of the Belarusian Armed Forces in Homiel region. There are several units of radio-technical troops (Mazyr, Homiel district), ammunition and military equipment depots (Homiel, Homiel district, Dobrush and Rechytsa districts), and a fuel base (Zhlobin district) permanently deployed on the territory of Homiel region. These military units are small in number, just like their military towns. Therefore, it would be impossible to “add” someone to them. The issue of accommodation of units of the Southern Operational Command remained open.
Probably for this reason, it was decided to form a new anti-aircraft missile regiment (military unit 96871) within the Western Operational Command to later include the 147th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment (military unit 96869) in the Southern Operational Command. In this configuration, the anti-aircraft missile regiments of troop air defense will be closer to the units of operational commands. The distance from Babruisk to Homiel is about 150 kilometers (against 430 kilometers from Babruisk to Hrodna).
The similarity of the names of the units is notable: military unit 96869 (Bobruisk) and military unit 96871 (Hrodna).
Currently, version No. 3 looks the most reasonable. If it is confirmed, the 147th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment will be the first unit of the Southern Operational Command to become publicly known.
It is possible that other units of the Southern Operational Command (including the Operational Command Directorate) will also be deployed in Babruisk. For example, before it was disbanded in 2011, the Command of the Ground Forces of the Belarusian Armed Forces (military unit 01304) was stationed in Babruisk.
