The redeployment began back on August 10. Soldiers, tanks and aviation were sent to the south.
On August 10, Minister of Defense of Belarus Viktar Khrenin said that taking into account the situation in Ukraine and Kursk oblast of Russia, Lukashenka had given instructions “to strengthen the group of troops in the Homiel and Mazyr tactical directions.” According to the official, units of the Special Operations Forces, Ground Forces, Missile and Artillery Troops (including Polonez MLRS and Iskander-M missile systems) are involved in this.
In the morning of August 10, the redeployment of units of the Belarusian Armed Forces to the southern regions of Belarus indeed started. According to Belarusian Hajun, the total number of the group concentrated in the area bordering Ukraine may amount to at least 1100 people.
Here’s what we know about it.
Ground Forces
Missile and Artillery Troops
As noted above, Missile and Artillery Troops (including those armed with Polonez MLRS and Iskander-M systems) were involved to reinforce the “group of troops in the Homiel and Mazyr tactical directions.”
MLRS and missile systems are in service with two brigades of the Belarusian Armed Forces:
- The 336th Rocket Artillery Brigade (military unit 12180; Asipovichy) – 2 divizions of Polonez and Polonez-M MLRS;
- The 465th Missile Brigade (military unit 61732; Asipovichy) – 2 divizions of Iskander-M missile system.
There was no information on the movements or activities of units armed with Polonez MLRS and Iskander-M missile systems.
On August 13, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus said: “Crews of the Missile and Artillery Troops of the Belarusian Armed Forces are going to a training ground of the Russian Federation to practice the issues of combat use.” It was noted that the units would perform combat launches from missile systems and MLRS in service with the Belarusian Armed Forces. It was not specified what kind of missile systems. We may assume that these are units armed with Polonez MLRS and Iskander-M systems.
Apparently, part of the units armed with Polonez MLRS and Iskander-M systems may have been redeployed to the southern regions of Belarus. Another part is at field drills in Russia.
Northwestern Operational Command
On August 10, the redeployment of the 339th Separate Mechanized Battalion of the 120th Mechanized Brigade (military unit 04104) was recorded. The battalion was marching with its regular equipment. The convoy consisted of at least 30 BTR-82A armored personnel carriers and other equipment. The convoy was moving along the M5 highway towards Babruisk. The battalion’s staging area is unknown.
On August 11, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus published footage of equipment being loaded onto flatcars at Barysau station. The equipment belongs to the 355th Separate Tank Battalion of the 120th Mechanized Brigade (military unit 25853, Minsk). The battalion is armed with T-72B tanks. On August 12, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus published a video of equipment being unloaded at Kozenki station (Mazyr). According to the Community of Railway Workers of Belarus, on August 11, a military cargo train from Barysau station went to Navabelitskaya station (Homiel). There were 37 cars in the train (31 flatcars with equipment, 3 passenger cars and 3 boxcars). The train was re-formed at Navabelitskaya station. As a result, 28 cars were left at the station for unloading, and a group of 9 cars (8 flatcars with equipment and 1 passenger car) went to Kozenki station.
It is notable that before the redeployment to the south, the 355th Battalion was not at the permanent deployment point, but at field drills. For example, on July 9, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus published a photo report from the battalion’s firearms training, which was held at the 227th Barysauski training ground. As noted earlier, a military cargo train with the battalion’s equipment was formed at Barysau station.
According to the information of the Community of Railway Workers of Belarus, on August 14, a military cargo train consisting of 17 cars (16 flatcars with equipment and 1 passenger car) was sent from Zaslonava station to Navabelitskaya station. In this case it was about the redeployment of one of the units of the 19th Mechanized Brigade (military unit 71327, Zaslonava). It is unknown which unit exactly was sent to the border. Probably, it could be: 1) a unit of a reconnaissance battalion; 2) a motorized rifle company.
Western Operational Command
Starting from August 15, the Telegram channel of the Western Operational Command has published a large amount of information about movements of troops, including allegedly to the southern regions of Belarus. At the same time, the units were described as “assigned to the reserve of the group of troops formed at the southern operational direction.”
Probably, the “reserve” means units that are stationed at permanent deployment points (at training grounds). And during rotation, they will replace the units that were redeployed to the area bordering Ukraine in August 2024. For example, units of the 11th Mechanized Brigade were called the reserve (the 105th Separate Mechanized Battalion and the Reconnaissance Battalion), which are at field drills at the Obuz-Liasnouski and Chapialiova training grounds, respectively.
However, most of the described activities and movements of troops were related to tactical drills in the 6th Mechanized Brigade. After conscripts were drafted from the reserve and the units were staffed, they were to go to training grounds and terrain in Hrodna region.
Attempts of disinformation were also recorded. For example, on August 19, a video was published with the caption “Movement of one of the units of the Western Operational Command to the task area in the southern direction.” The video showed the movement of the 78th Separate Mechanized Battalion of the 6th Mechanized Brigade ( military unit 04108). Indeed, on August 19, we recorded the movements of the battalion’s equipment in Hrodna (Eastern Bridge – Karskaha St.). However, the video mentioned above was filmed and published back in May 2024. Moreover, on August 21, State TV released a story where the 78th Battalion practiced crossing the Nioman river in Hrodna district.
The channel also published information about other movements of troops to the border with Ukraine, but it hasn’t been possible to confirm the information about the redeployment of units of the Western Operational Command yet.
Special Operations Forces
As of early August, the following units of the Special Operations Forces were deployed in Homiel region:
- Parachute and Airborne Battalion of the 103rd Airborne Brigade – vicinity of Ziabrauka airfield (Homiel district).
- A detachment of the 5th Special Forces Brigade – Mazyr district.
The number of personnel of these units can be estimated at 400-500 people.
During the last week, movements of convoys with equipment of the 357th Separate Parachute and Airborne Battalion of the 103rd Airborne Brigade (military unit 52500) were recorded in Zhytkavichy, Petrykau and Mazyr districts.
On August 20, Commander of the Special Operations Forces Vadzim Denisenka inspected the staging area and command post of the 103rd Airborne Brigade of the Special Operations Forces, located in the vicinity of Cheratsianka (Zhytkavichy district, Homiel region) and Ziabrauka airfield. Commander of the 103rd Brigade Uladzimir Safonau could be seen in the published video.
No information on the involvement of the 5th Special Forces Brigade and the 38th Air Assault Brigade has been received so far.
Air Force and Air Defense Forces
On August 10, four Su-25 attack aircraft of the 116th Assault Air Base (military unit 19764, Lida airfield) were redeployed from Lida airfield to Babruisk airfield. Alsoб during the day, an An-26 military transport aircraft made two flights from Lida airfield to Babruisk airfield. The aircraft probably delivered engineering staff and equipment for ground support of the attack aircraft. Therefore, it is assumed that the Su-25 flight [unit] will be stationed in Babruisk for an indefinite period of time. On August 18, 20 and 22, Su-25 flights were recorded at Babruisk airfield.
It is notable that on August 19, the airbase’s Telegram channel reported that it was “carrying out preparatory activities for the relocation of additional forces and means in the interests of strengthening the state border in the southern operational direction.” That is, the channel reported about “preparations for relocation” 9 days after the relocation itself. It is possible that it is still planned to redeploy aircraft to the operational airfield.
On August 13, a movement of a convoy of equipment consisting of S-300PS launchers was spotted on the M5 highway (Dukora-Maryina Horka). It was probably one of the divizions of the 15th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade (military unit 30151, headquarters in Fanipal). On August 14, the divizion was deployed in the field between Unorytsa and Aziorshchyna, Rechytsa district.
On August 16, it was reported that one of the units of the 120th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade (military unit 96577, Baranavichy) was “brought to readiness to carry out the assigned tasks.” The servicemen marched about 450 kilometers to the assigned area, where they went on duty for air defense. This is probably one of the brigade’s anti-aircraft missile divizions armed with Buk SAM system. Given the claimed distance, the brigade’s divizion was redeployed to Homiel region. No other information about the divizion’s movements has been received yet.
On August 21, a post was published in the Telegram channel of the 61st Fighter Air Base (military unit 54804, Baranavichy airfield), which said that “in order to strengthen the State Border of the Republic of Belarus, [the air base] began preparing aircraft for relocation to the operational airfield of the Southern operational direction.” It was noted that the advance team will be the first to leave for the operational airfield, which will prepare places for the reception and deployment of aviation equipment. Then the flight [aircraft] and air [personnel and materiel transported by air] echelons would be relocated.
Currently, there is no information about redeployment of the units of the air base to the operational airfield. Probably, they will be redeployed either to Luninets or Babruisk airfields.
On August 21, it was reported that one of the anti-aircraft missile divizions of the 115th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment (military unit 92504, Brest district) marched to the assigned area with the task of “reinforcing the state border in the airspace in the southern direction.” Personnel are preparing to go on combat duty. No other information about the movements of the divizion has been received yet.
On August 23, helicopters of the 50th Combined Air Base (military unit 06752, Machulishchy airfield) were redeployed “to the sites at the southern operational direction.” It is known that 2 Mi-8 helicopters flew to Luninets airfield.
KGB and MIA
On August 18, Lukashenka said that Alfa (KGB) and Almaz (Ministry of Internal Affairs) special units were working in the area bordering Ukraine. It is unlikely that the number of personnel of these units in the border area will exceed 50 people.
Lukashenka also spoke about “other – the most prepared” units. Probably, he meant special forces detachments of the Internal Troops. For example, during the inspection of the staging area of the troops, a Volat V1 armored car was captured in the photo with Special Operations Forces Commander Vadzim Dzenisenka. Such vehicles are in service with the special forces detachments of the Internal Troops. We may assume that the car belongs to the Buran special forces detachment (military unit 5525, Homiel).
Also, a photo of servicemen of the Shtorm special forces detachment (military unit 5526, Brest) “somewhere near the state border” was published.
Buran and Shtorm detachments couldn’t be involved in full, as they participated in the combat coordination course, which ended on August 22. The number of each of the detachments is about 70 people. That is, the total number of the units will not exceed 100 people.
Thus, the group concentrated near the border with Ukraine includes:
- 1 mechanized battalion: 30 armored combat vehicles (BTR-82A), ~350 people;
- 1 tank battalion: at least 20 armored combat vehicles (T-72B tanks), ~150 people;
- 1 parachute and airborne battalion: 30 armored combat vehicles (BTR-70MB1), ~300 people;
- 1 motorized rifle (reconnaissance) company: 16 vehicles, ~50 people;
- 1 flight (4 Su-25 attack aircraft): were redeployed to the operational airfield;
- 2 Mi-8 helicopters: were redeployed to operational airfields;
- 1 anti-aircraft missile divizion (S-300PS SAM system): 5 self-propelled launchers, 5N63S command post, 76N6 radar , ~70 people;
- special forces units of the KGB, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Internal Troops – ~150 people.
In total: about 1100 people. This is the minimum confirmed number of troops of the established group. Probably, units of electronic warfare, communications, unmanned aerial systems, etc. were also redeployed to the border area.
Confirmation of redeployment of the following units to the border area is required:
- 1 divizion of Polonez/Polonez-M MLRS;
- 1 divizion of Iskander-M missile system;
- mechanized units of the Western Operational Command;
- 1 anti-aircraft missile divizion (S-300PS SAM system);
- 1 anti-aircraft missile divizion (Buk SAM system);
- 1 flight (4 MiG-29/Su-30SM fighters) to the operational airfield.
Speaking about the number of the Belarusian group near the border with Ukraine, we should note the following. On August 21, the BelVPO Telegram channel wrote that the number of battalion tactical groups, performing jointly with the border service bodies the tasks to reinforce the border with Ukraine, increased from 5 to more than 20. It was noted that these were mostly units of the rapid reaction forces. It is hard to say what the resource based on when it published information about more than 20 battalion tactical groups. It is also unknown what the authors of the publication mean by the battalion tactical group.
It is generally understood that a battalion tactical group is a battalion (mechanized, tank, parachute and airborne, etc.) with attached forces and means (e.g., howitzer battery, tank company, etc.).
We should also note that in March 2022, after the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion, officials of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus claimed that there were 5 battalion tactical groups to cover the border with Ukraine on a rotational basis. Lukashenka claimed the deployment of up to 10 battalion tactical groups.
Based on the available information, 20 battalion tactical groups is an extremely high estimate. Even if all the resources available to the Belarusian Armed Forces were utilized, it would be difficult to establish 20 battalion tactical groups (given their regular rotation).
The available information allows us to talk about no more than 5-7 battalion tactical groups in the border area with Ukraine. We should take into account that the units of the Belarusian Armed Forces won’t stay in the border area with Ukraine indefinitely. It will be necessary to rotate these units, as it happened with units of the Special Operations Forces deployed in Homiel region since 2022, which were rotated every 2 months.
On August 18, Lukashenka said: “We have brought in one third of the army [to the territories near the southern border].” However, this information doesn’t correspond to reality. It should be taken into account that this statement was made in an interview with the “Rossiya” TV channel and, therefore, was addressed to the Russian audience.
The new round of Lukashenka’s escalation of the situation on the Belarus-Ukraine border is similar to what already happened in June-July 2024. Using a formal excuse (UAVs that allegedly flew into Belarus), Lukashenka again started redeployment of troops to the border with Ukraine. However, unlike the June escalation, now the number of troops redeployed to the border has increased. For example, there is redeployment of mechanized units with heavy weapons, among others. We note that such units haven’t been redeployed to the border area with Ukraine since the fall of 2022.
The motivation of the actions taken is also different. Now it is a consequence of the beginning of military operations in Kursk oblast: Lukashenka needs to fulfill his “union obligations” to Russia. Especially in the situation when Lukashenka was recognized responsible in the Russian information space for the successes of the Ukrainian military operation in Kursk oblast, because in July he ordered to withdraw his troops from the border with Ukraine, thus allegedly allowing to use Ukrainian reserves from the Belarusian direction.
The number of forces being redeployed to the border doesn’t pose a threat to Ukraine. The troops are located at a depth of up to 50 kilometers from the border. This is also confirmed by official Ukrainian sources.
The escalation of the situation on the border is for informational and political, rather than military, purposes. The situation is developing and requires further monitoring.
