Information in the review is provided as of June 2, 2024
Summary
The main military events of May in the Belarusian Armed Forces were the joint Air Force drills, as well as the inspection of TNW carriers. The key personnel appointment in May was the replacement of the Chief of the General Staff.
The level of presence of the Russian Armed Forces remained practically the same in May. There may be about 2000 Russian military in Belarus. At the same time, the aviation group of the Russian Aerospace Forces increased by two fighters. The activity of units of the Russian Armed Forces stationed in Belarus hasn’t changed and remains low.
Up to 100 mercenaries of PMC Wagner stay in Belarus, who continue to systematically train law enforcers of the Lukashenka regime. There is no other activity of the mercenaries.
The general medium-term forecast of the military situation in Belarus remains the same. Currently, there is no reason to expect an offensive by the Russian Armed Forces from the territory of Belarus, as well as an increase in their military presence. Involvement of the Belarusian Armed Forces in combat operations against Ukraine is still unlikely. The significance of PMC Wagner as a destabilizing factor no longer exists.
Chapter 1. Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus. Internal Troops
1.1. Organization of combat training
In May, there were fewer combat training activities compared to the previous months. This is due to a number of factors: the end of the first half of the 2023/2024 academic year in the troops, the dismissal of conscripts who have completed their term of service, and the conscription of new recruits.
Another factor that influenced the decrease in the intensity of combat training activities was the preparation for the military parade dedicated to the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Belarus. The parade will take place in Minsk on July 3. It will involve more than 6000 servicemen and about 250 pieces of military equipment. The equipment and personnel involved in the parade will be excluded from combat training activities for about two and a half months (from mid-April to early July).
As a consequence, the intensification of combat training can be expected in the second half of June-early July (after the arrival of new recruits, as well as the completion of preparations for the military parade).
Nevertheless, a number of notable combat training activities took place during the month. Some of these were conducted as part of the combat readiness inspection that began on March 11 (the completion of the inspection was not officially reported).
1) On May 3, the inspection of the duty forces of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces of Belarus took place. Lukashenka personally observed the inspection. The inspection was a response to a series of military drills “on the territory of neighboring countries.” It should be noted that units of the Belarusian Air Force had been rehearsing the “inspection” for almost three months before demonstrating it to Lukashenka.
The event was conducted as part of the sudden combat readiness inspection, which has been going on since March 11.
2) The inspection of non-strategic nuclear weapons carriers (for more details, see paragraph 1.8 of the review).
3) On May 20, the battalion tactical group of the 6th Mechanized Brigade was brought to readiness to perform its assigned tasks. It was based on the 78th Separate Mechanized Battalion of the Brigade with attached units (a tank company, mortar and rocket artillery platoons, etc.). The personnel with regular weapons went to the assigned area, where they practiced defensive actions to cover the main road directions.
It is known that the unit carried out tasks in Lida and Voranava districts of Hrodna region. On May 24, the battalion tactical group returned to the permanent deployment point.
4) On May 21-23, command-staff drills were held under the leadership of the head of logistics of the Belarusian Armed Forces with military administration bodies and military logistics units. During the drills, the issues of managing the logistics support of troops, dispersing supplies, providing medical assistance to the wounded and sick at all stages of evacuation, and implementing measures to improve the survivability of facilities of military units and rear organizations were worked out.
New forms and methods were tested for the transportation of materiel, dispersal and concealment of its delivery to the troops. Civilian healthcare facilities were involved in the drills.
More than 100 reservists were drafted to take part in the drills. Similar drills were conducted in June 2023.
5) On May 27-31, “within the framework of improving the unified regional air defense system of Belarus and Russia,” joint Air Force drills were held. The drills involved air bases, units of the anti-aircraft missile and radio-technical troops of the Belarusian Armed Forces, as well as crews of the reconnaissance, fighter and army aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces. On May 25, eight Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Baranavichy airfield to take part in the Air Force drills. On May 31, the day the drills ended, the helicopters left for Russia. It is notable that the Russian Defense Ministry ignored the drills. Only on May 31, the day the drills ended, did the Defense Ministry publish a press release about the drills. In general, the participation of the Russian Aerospace Forces in the drills was limited, as there were practically no flights of aircraft and helicopters recorded.
For more details on the Air Force drills, see the report on military activity in Belarus on May 27-June 2.
During the month, it was reported that drills on repelling attacks on facilities of military towns, as well as on countering unauthorized UAV flights, were conducted. Such trainings were conducted in Brest, Slonim, etc.
During the trainings, they practiced dropping anti-vehicle “hedgehogs” (sharp steel pins connected in a star-shaped way) to stop intruders’ vehicles and further detain them. UAVs were also used to search for and detain sabotage and reconnaissance groups.
To counteract unauthorized UAV flights, the military used the Groza-R2 radio-electronic rifles for countering multicopters, as well as the MR-155 Baikal smoothbore semi-automatic shotguns. For the first time, the MR-155 Baikal shotgun was demonstrated as a means of countering UAVs during the operational training session of the command staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces, which was held at the Staradarozhski training ground in October 2023. Since then, the shotgun has been supplied to the majority of units of the Belarusian Armed Forces as a standard weapon for combating UAVs. For more information about the MR-155 Baikal shotguns, see the document of 10.01.2024 “The Belarusian Armed Forces start using the MR-155 Baikal hunting shotgun to counter drones.”
We can also note activity in the 74th Signal Regiment (military unit 41780, Hrodna; part of the Western Operational Command). In March-May, several trainings with the administration of the personnel reception center were conducted in the regiment. Also, equipment (plates, signs, etc.) was purchased for its work. The intensity of trainings with the personnel reception center, as well as the procurement of equipment for its work, indicate that a large number of reservists were being prepared to be drafted from the reserve. This may indicate preparations for the combat readiness inspection of the unit.
On May 25, new recruits to the Belarusian Armed Forces took the military oath. At the oath-taking ceremony, Defense Minister Viktar Khrenin announced a radical revision of troop training, with a greater emphasis on practical training and less drill.
Training of Belarusian military specialists in Russia
No information about training of Belarusian military specialists at training centers on the territory of Russia was received in May.
Internal Troops, Border Guard bodies
Significant combat training activities include the following:
1) A tactical special training on the conduct of a counter-terrorist operation was held with the personnel of the 1st Militia Brigade of the Internal Troops. The servicemen practiced blocking an area, searching for and detaining members of illegal armed groups, and repelling an attack on the unit’s forces and means.
2) On May 22-23, a comprehensive inspection of the readiness of the 4th Militia Brigade of the Internal Troops to perform combat tasks took place under the leadership of the State Secretariat of the Security Council of Belarus. Servicemen of the brigade’s units showed the level of combat training, performing firing exercises from all types of weapons in service, physical training and hand-to-hand combat, tactical medicine and the use of drones. The readiness of military equipment to perform its assigned tasks was also inspected.
Training of Belarusian enforcers by PMC Wagner mercenaries
Training of servicemen by PMC Wagner mercenaries continued in May.
It is known that the mercenaries continue to work with servicemen of the Internal Troops systematically. However, this cooperation is not publicly recognized. Earlier we wrote that the press service of the Internal Troops stopped mentioning PMC Wagner in its materials. Since the beginning of February and up to the present time, the mercenaries have been publicly referred to as “experienced instructors.” For this reason, the ongoing cooperation can be assessed by circumstantial evidence (mainly photos and videos). It is known, for example, that mercenaries completed combat coordination of the Grom special forces detachment in May. The mercenaries also trained other units of the Internal Troops.
Training of the Belarusian Armed Forces by the mercenaries was not reported.
1.2. Movements of military equipment and aviation activity
The main factor that affected the intensity of movements of military equipment and aviation activity in May was the preparation for the parade dedicated to the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Belarus (to be held in Minsk on July 3). Because of the rehearsals at Lipki airfield, active movements of convoys with military equipment of the Belarusian Armed Forces were recorded in Minsk and its vicinity.
The intensity of movements of military equipment decreased 1.5-fold compared to April. As in previous months, there was nothing unusual in movements of the equipment of the Belarusian Armed Forces. Most of the movements are concentrated in the vicinity of the areas where the garrisons and training grounds of the Belarusian Armed Forces are located. More details on the movements of military equipment are available on the map of military activity.
The intensity of movements of the Belarusian Armed Forces by rail decreased two-fold compared to April. The movements of troops by rail were connected with the withdrawal of units of the 19th Mechanized Brigade from the area bordering Lithuania to the permanent deployment point (for more details, see paragraph 1.3 of the review). The following railway stations were used for the movements of troops: Aziaryshcha, Ashmiany, Pastavy, Zaslonava, etc.
The intensity of flights of the Belarusian Air Force slightly decreased compared to April. Lida, Baranavichy and Machulishchy airfields were mainly used for flights, while Vosautsy, Luninets and Babruisk airfields were used less frequently. Aviation activity was also recorded at Mahiliou airport.
The following notable features of aviation activity can be noted:
1) During the month (on May 1, 4, 8, 10-12, 22-24, 27), flights of helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force continued to be recorded in the area of the western border of Belarus.
Deputy Commander of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces Leanid Davidovich said that in response to the flights of reconnaissance aircraft of NATO, the Belarusian Air Force is patrolling the state borders of Belarus with fighters and helicopters.
2) On May 7, two Su-25 attack aircraft relocated from the base airfield (Lida) to Machulishchy airfield as part of the inspection of carriers of non-strategic nuclear weapons. On May 8, the aircraft returned to the base airfield.
3) On May 15, 16, 17, four helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force (two Mi-8 and two Mi-24) flew from Machulishchy airfield to Mahiliou airport. The flights were connected with the rehearsals, as well as with a practical exercise of the episode on the defense of Mahiliou airport by the territorial defense forces, which was held during the training session “Military security and defense of the state” ( for more details, see paragraph 1.4 of the review).
4) On May 19, a CASA C-295 military transport aircraft of the Kazakh Air Force arrived at Machulishchy airfield. The aircraft brought a group of servicemen from Kazakhstan to take part in the competition for the right to wear the “Valor and skill” badge.
5) During the Air Force drills, which took place on May 27-31, intensive flights of the Belarusian Air Force were observed (for more details, see paragraph 1.1 of the review).
1.3. A group of the Belarusian Armed Forces deployed in the border regions of Belarus
Regions bordering Ukraine
Units of the Special Operations Forces are still deployed in the regions of Belarus bordering Ukraine. Despite the fact that the military are officially declared to be performing border protection tasks, at the same time they are covering Russian military facilities in Homiel region.
In general, the situation in the area bordering Ukraine hasn’t changed compared to April. As of the end of May, one of the battalions (the 317th or 350th) of the 103rd Airborne Brigade was deployed in the vicinity of Ziabrauka airfield (Homiel district). In turn, one of the detachments of the 5th Special Forces Brigade is still stationed in the vicinity of Mazyr. The total number of these units can still be estimated at 400-500 people.
Since the previous rotation of a unit of the Special Operations Forces (deployed in Homiel district) took place on April 19-21, one can expect that the next rotation will take place in the second half of June.
We recall that units of the Special Operations Forces will be stationed in Mazyr and Homiel districts until the end of 2024. Currently, there are no reasons to believe that the number of the group of the Belarusian Armed Forces near the border with Ukraine may increase. The number of units located there has been static for several months.
Regions bordering Lithuania
On May 6-7, units of the 19th Mechanized Brigade were withdrawn to the permanent deployment point from Ashmiany and Pastavy districts. We recall that in mid-March, the brigade’s units were redeployed to the area bordering Lithuania as part of the combat readiness inspection. In total, the Belarusian military stayed there for almost two months (from March 14 to May 6).
In mid-May, they were replaced by a battalion tactical group of the 120th Mechanized Brigade. It was based on the 339th Separate Mechanized Battalion (military unit 04104), reinforced by a tank company of the 355th Separate Tank Battalion (military unit 25853), as well as other units (from the anti-aircraft missile-artillery divizion, etc.).
Units of the 120th Mechanized Brigade can be expected to stay in the Lithuanian border area until mid-June-early July. Previously, the brigade’s units also carried out tasks near the western border of Belarus.
As of the end of May, there is no unambiguous confirmation of the presence of units of the 120th Mechanized Brigade in the area bordering Lithuania.
Regions bordering Russia
We recall that in mid-April, one of the units of the 740th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment of the Belarusian Armed Forces (military unit 15847) was redeployed to Klimavichy district (Mahiliou region). The regiment is deployed in Barysau and is part of the Northwestern Operational Command, it is armed with the Osa-AKM SAM system.
There was no new information on the unit’s activity in May. It is possible that: 1) it was withdrawn to the permanent deployment point; 2) rotation took place and the regiment’s units are still stationed in the area bordering Russia.
Protection of the Mazyr oil refinery
In May, we continued to record the activity of air defense units of the Belarusian Armed Forces in Yelsk district (the 147th and 1146th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiments), performing the task of covering the Mazyr oil refinery.
On May 25, it was reported that one of the units of the 147th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment returned to the permanent deployment point “from the task fulfillment area.” The unit marched in a combined manner (by rail and public roads).
Our assumptions from the review of military events of April have been confirmed. At that time, we assumed that air defense units would perform the tasks of covering the Mazyr oil refinery on a rotational basis. According to available information, units of the 147th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment rotated at the end of May. The rotation of units shows that the security threat to the refinery has been recognized as permanent.
The rotation of units of the 1146th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment was not reported. It should be noted that the Belarusian Armed Forces have a total of six batteries of the Tor-M2K SAM systems. Five of them are in the 1146th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment, and one more battery is in the 15th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade. It is known that two batteries of Tor-M2K SAM systems (one from the 1146th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment, one from the 15th Brigade) will take part in the military parade, which will take place in Minsk on July 3. In other words, there are only three batteries of Tor-M2K SAM systems left to protect the Belarusian NPP (this task is performed by the 1146th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment), as well as to cover the Mazyr oil refinery.
1.4. Territorial defense and national home guard. Military commissariats
Territorial defense. National home guard
On May 7-31, a training session with conscripts of the territorial troops was held in Mahiliou and Bykhau districts (Mahiliou region). We reported about these drills back in early April. The program of the training session was standard and didn’t differ from other similar drills. 143 reservists were drafted to the training session (1, 2).
Command-staff drills were held at the final stage of the training session, during which the conscripts, together with internal affairs officers, performed tasks to protect important infrastructure facilities, ensure public order, and counter sabotage and reconnaissance groups.
From May 16 to June 7, a training session with conscripts of the territorial troops was also held in Rechytsa district (Homiel region). In total, about 100 reservists were drafted to the training session.
In May, it became known about drills with the territorial defense, which will be held in June-July in Maskouski district of Minsk. According to preliminary information, 130 reservists are planned to be drafted to the training session. Minsk will become the 8th region of Belarus where territorial defense drills will be held from the beginning of 2024.
On May 17, the annual training session “Military security and defense of the state” was held in Mahiliou under the leadership of the Minister of Defense. The participants were chairmen of regional and Minsk city executive committees and representatives of military commissariats. During the event, the participants got acquainted with the procedure for the use of drones and the fight against them, saw the practical actions of the national home guard, the protection of the airport by the territorial defense forces, and got acquainted with the samples of construction equipment used to prepare settlements for defense.
Attempts to increase the number of territorial defense forces by using hunters continue. It is known that the retraining of hunters into snipers began in Belarus, which is organized in cooperation with the Ministry of Defense of Belarus.
Military commissariats
On April 23, new recruits drafted for compulsory military service began to be sent to the troops. A total of about 10,000 people are to be drafted. The number of conscripts drafted for compulsory service hasn’t changed for the last 10 years. At the same time, the number of conscripts who serve under contract instead of compulsory service is growing.
In May, at least 6 court verdicts were reported in criminal cases against citizens who evaded conscription for compulsory military service (Art.435 of the Criminal Code). This is not yet a final figure, as verdicts are published in the public domain with a delay.
1.5. Military training sessions with reservists
Training sessions with reservists were reported in the following units in May:
- The 815th Technical Support Center (19 reservists);
- The 6th Mechanized Brigade (15 reservists);
- The 11th Mechanized Brigade (15 reservists);
- The 74th Signal Regiment (15 reservists).
More than 100 reservists were also drafted to a military training session to take part in command-staff drills with military administration bodies and military logistics units. Of these, 35 were drafted to the 65th Vehicle Brigade.
In total, at least 164 reservists were drafted to the training session in the units mentioned above.
There was also information about military commissariats of Brest and Mahiliou regions sending reservists to a military training session. A total of 55 reservists were sent to the training session.
In May, a training session was held with conscripts of the territorial troops in Mahiliou, Bykhau and Rechytsa districts. In total, about 243 people were drafted to the training session.
Thus, the total number of reservists drafted to military training sessions in May can be at least 462 people. And in total since the beginning of 2024 – 8573 people. We note that this is the minimal number of reservists who have undergone military training sessions. In reality, their number may be several times higher, since open sources publish only fragmentary data on conscription to military training sessions.
The Ministry of Defense of Belarus hasn’t reported the number of conscripts to be drafted to military training sessions in 2024. A total of 9000 people were planned to be drafted to training sessions in 2023.
1.6. Supplies of new weapons to the troops. Work of the military-industrial complex of Belarus
Supplies of new weapons to the troops
The following new equipment was reported to be supplied to the troops in May:
1) The artillery units of the Western Operational Command received new Grad MLRS projectiles. They have improved characteristics and are capable of hitting targets at a range of up to 40 kilometers.
We recall that plans to transfer new projectiles for the Grad MLRS were announced in February 2024. Most likely, the ammunition in question will be produced in Belarus. In June 2023, it was reported about the start of serial production of RS 122 shells for the Grad MLRS. However, no large deliveries should be expected for now, as no large-scale production of this type of ammunition has been established yet.
2) Thanks to information from open sources, we found out that the artillery units of the 38th Air Assault Brigade and the 103rd Airborne Brigade received Grad MLRS. The transfer of the systems wasn’t officially announced.
The exact number of Grad MLRS in the brigades of the Special Operations Forces is still unknown. We may assume that it may be about forming rocket artillery batteries (6 combat vehicles) in combined artillery divizions of each of the brigades.
Units of the Special Operations Forces received the old Grad systems (on the Ural-375D chassis), and not the more modern models produced by the Belarusian military-industrial complex (Shkval MLRS or BelGrad-2 MLRS). In 2021, Commander of the Special Operations Forces of the Belarusian Armed Forces V. Denisenko said that it was necessary to form a rocket artillery regiment in the Special Operations Forces structure. Apparently, the idea has been abandoned for now.
The reason for the transfer of Grad systems to the troops could be the following: 1) increasing the firing capabilities of artillery units; 2) the experience of the war in Ukraine, where Grad MLRS showed their effectiveness. It should be noted that the number of artillery units with Grad MRLS in service began to increase in 2022. For example, in early 2023, a rocket artillery battery with Grad MRLS in service was formed in the 51st Artillery Brigade.
3) On May 30, units of the Signal Troops of the Belarusian Armed Forces received another batch of new and modernized equipment. The troops received more than 25 modernized models of communication equipment. These include radio relay stations, mobile charging bases (E-350P), as well as BMP-1KSh command-staff vehicles.
4) On May 31, new engineering and electrical equipment was transferred to the units of the Belarusian Armed Forces. The military received two excavators, the Amkodor front-end loader and several dozens of the Stavmash electric generators (made in Russia and China).
5) The Groza-Z1 mobile UAV defense system and the Groza-S UAV electronic warfare station were put into service with the Internal Troops. The number of the equipment received is unknown.
Announced plans for rearmament
The following rearmament plans were announced in May:
1) The head of the Anti-Aircraft Missile Troops of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces Command of Belarus said that the Buk-MB SAM system would be delivered to the troops “in the near future.” The system is a Belarusian modernization of the Buk SAM system.
It should be noted that the Buk SAM system is in service with one unit of the Belarusian Armed Forces – the 120th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade (deployed in Baranavichy). In 2016, the then defense minister of Belarus said that the Belarusian Armed Forces had four divizions of Buk SAM systems. Some of them have a minimal number of personnel and equipment. According to open sources, one divizion includes six self-propelled launchers. Therefore, the Belarusian Armed Forces have about 24 self-propelled launchers of the Buk SAM system.
The Buk-MB SAM system was first presented at the MILEX-2005 exhibition of equipment and armaments. It is known that the system was supplied for export (to Azerbaijan). It is remarkable that the military don’t announce plans to purchase more recent versions of Buk SAM systems developed by the Belarusian military-industrial complex – for example, Buk-MB2K or Buk-MB3K.
The number of Buk SAM systems to be transferred to the troops hasn’t been reported. We may assume that at least one divizion set of the system will be used to begin with.
The official also said that Pantsir-SM and S-350 Vitsiaz systems are being analyzed for possible purchase in the future. As practice shows (for example, with the purchase of Mi-35M helicopters), the implementation of signed contracts for the supply of equipment can be significantly delayed. In the conditions of war, Russia has a high domestic demand for the products of its military-industrial complex. For this reason, supplies of Russian equipment to Belarus are slow (or not realized at all).
2) By the end of 2024, the 49th Radio-Technical Brigade is to receive new Rosa-RB low-altitude target detection radars. The complex is designed for automatic detection and tracking of low-altitude airborne objects. The developer and manufacturer of the complex is KB Radar OJSC. In 2020, Rosa-RB was put into service and began to be delivered to the troops.
3) The commander of the 111th Artillery Brigade described plans to rearm the unit. The brigade is expected to receive modernized Uragan MLRS and 2S5 Giatsint-S self-propelled guns, as well as Polonez MLRS. In addition, it is planned to equip each artillery platoon with a drone and to install standard electronic warfare equipment on artillery systems to counter FPV drones.
It is known that a batch of 2S5 Giatsint-S cannons for the Belarusian Armed Forces has been undergoing modernization at an enterprise of the military-industrial complex in Russia since 2022. And in 2024, modernization of the Uragan MLRS began for the needs of the 111th Artillery Brigade. The Ministry of Defense of Belarus is also purchasing UAVs to equip artillery units of the Belarusian Armed Forces.
The terms of the transfer of Polonez MLRS and EW equipment haven’t been announced yet. One can expect that all of the equipment listed above will enter service with the brigade in the next 1.5-2 years.
4) On May 24, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus published a tender for the purchase of one set of the “Berkut-3 short-range tactical reconnaissance unmanned aerial system.” A total of 10 sets of the UAV are planned to be purchased in 2024. The procurement (so far) of one set may be an “installation batch” delivered for the initial phase of operation. Or for other reasons – for example, budget restrictions, lack of established small-scale production, etc.
The Berkut-3 UAVs will be supplied to the artillery units of the Belarusian Armed Forces.
5) In April, 10 servicemen of the 336th Rocket Artillery Brigade of the Belarusian Armed Forces were trained to drive the MZKT-7930 chassis. The chassis is used to mount combat and transport-loading vehicles of the V-200 Polonez and V-300 Polonez-M MLRS.
Training of mechanic-drivers for MZKT-7390 chassis can be connected with the transfer of another divizion set of the V-200 Polonez or V-300 Polonez-M MLRS to the Belarusian Armed Forces.
6) In 2024, the procurement of new equipment for the Radio-Technical Troops will continue. These are the Rosa-RB and Vostok radars produced in Belarus, as well as Russian-made Protivnik-GM radars.
7) Supplies of new models of medical equipment to the troops, which are undergoing state tests, were announced.
Activity of the military-industrial complex
1) At the end of April, experimental samples of the IVTs-122RL airborne target radar simulator were tested at the Damanava training ground. The product imitates an air target and is designed for training and exercising the crews of the Osa-AKM, Tor, Pantsir and Buk SAM systems in conditions close to the real one. By the end of 2024, it is planned to complete the development work, after which the simulators will be delivered to the troops.
2) On May 29, Aliaksandr Lukashenka visited the open joint-stock company Legmash in Orsha. It was officially noted that “the enterprise has recently joined the arms industry.” It is known that since 2023, the plant has been producing projectiles for the Grad MLRS. In the published photos from Lukashenka’s visit to Legmash, one can see that the production of projectiles was indeed established. The exact production volumes of the projectiles are unknown.
It is possible that the projectiles are exported to Russia.
Work of Belarusian industry and military-industrial complex for Russia
In May, there was an increase in exports to Russian airports of aviation fuel produced at the Mazyr oil refinery. The increase in supplies can be connected with: 1) The shortage of aviation fuel as a result of strikes on Russian refineries; 2) formation of fuel reserves for intensive use of aviation in the near future.
1.7. Development of military infrastructure. Formation of new units. Staffing of troops with personnel
Development of military infrastructure
The command of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces of Belarus has planned new investments in the infrastructure of Lida airfield. The 116th Assault Air Base (military unit 19764) is stationed at the airfield. The main armament of the base is Su-25 attack aircraft.
For example, about 85 meters of the runway will be repaired this year. Such repairs at airfields are carried out annually and are a consequence of natural wear of the pavement.
In addition, 20 metal shelters for aircraft will be purchased for airfields. The shelters allow not only additional protection of aircraft from unfavorable weather conditions and air strikes, but also from “prying eyes” from outer space. It is possible that the purchase of the shelters is a consequence of a series of strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces against the airfields of the Russian Armed Forces, which resulted in the damage and loss of aircraft.
Formation of new units.
The Vitsiaz special forces detachment was formed on the basis of the 7th Militia Brigade of the Internal Troops (military unit 5524, Vitsiebsk). The number of personnel of the detachment is about 70 people. The detachment became the thirteenth such unit in the Internal Troops formed since 2022. Vitsiebsk region was the last one where no special forces detachments of the Internal Troops were formed.
Staffing of troops with personnel
In May, the recruits drafted for compulsory military service during the fall conscription of 2024 took the military oath. We recall that a total of about 10,000 people were planned to be drafted during the spring conscription.
1) On May 11, more than 1000 recruits drafted into the Internal Troops during the spring conscription of 2024 took the military oath.
The number of recruits drafted during the spring-2024 conscription is comparable to the spring conscriptions of previous years. About 1000 people were drafted to serve in the Internal Troops during the spring conscriptions of 2018, 2020, and 2023. At the same time, a record conscription of conscripts (over 2000 people) took place in fall 2023.
2) On May 18, more than 1000 new recruits drafted into the military units of the border guard bodies took the military oath.
3) On May 25, recruits of the Belarusian Armed Forces took the military oath. The exact number of those who took the oath wasn’t mentioned.
1.8. Tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus
The main event in May was the inspection of non-strategic nuclear weapon carriers, which began on May 7.
A squadron of Su-25 attack aircraft of the 116th Assault Air Base and a divizion of the 465th Missile Brigade armed with the Iskander-M missile system are involved in the inspection. A unit of the 336th Rocket Artillery Brigade armed with the Polonez-M missile system is also taking part in the inspection. It was noted that “the entire range of activities from planning, preparation and use of strikes with tactical nuclear warheads” will be inspected. In particular, the issues of supplying special munitions to military units and loading them onto launchers and aircraft will be worked out. As part of the inspection, on May 7, two Su-25 attack aircraft relocated from the base airfield (Lida) to Machulishchy airfield. On May 8, the aircraft returned to Lida airfield.
No other activities within the inspection have been reported so far.
On May 21, the Russian Defense Ministry announced the start of the first stage of drills with practical training in the preparation and use of non-strategic nuclear weapons. Belarus is to join the drills at the second stage. A number of resources reported that the deployment of MiG-31K fighters (carriers of the Kinzhal hypersonic missiles) will take place at one of the airfields in Belarus. We note that the last time the aircraft were in Belarus was in April 2023. Currently, the arrival of the aircraft in Belarus is not recorded.
Currently, there is still no reliable data that would confirm the presence of TNWs on the territory of Belarus. Political statements regarding TNWs in Belarus made by Lukashenka, his officials and ‘experts’ can’t be trusted.
1.9. Amendments to legislation in the military sphere
No amendments to legislation in the military sphere were recorded.
1.10. International military cooperation
May was full of events of international military cooperation. For example, visits of Belarusian military delegations to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan took place during the month. Defense attaches from 6 Arab states, as well as defense ministers of Equatorial Guinea and Russia visited Belarus.
Military attaches of Bangladesh, Iran (for the first time since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the countries), and Egypt were accredited in Belarus. Officials of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus held meetings with the military attaches of India and the Ambassador of Turkey to Belarus.
On the CSTO level, a working meeting of heads of communications management bodies of defense agencies and a meeting of the Council of Defense Ministers of the organization’s member states took place. On the CIS level, a coordination meeting of specialists from defense agencies responsible for information security and the 30th meeting of the Coordination Committee of Topographical Services of the participating states took place.
Other events of international cooperation included:
1) The Belarusian military delegation headed by the head of the Main Directorate of Combat Training of the Belarusian Armed Forces, Aliaksandr Bas, took part in the “Security Belt 2024” command-staff drills in Tehran. During the drills, the Belarusian military together with their Iranian colleagues practiced the issues of combating terrorist formations. The Belarusian and Iranian parties also held negotiations on the development of cooperation in the field of combat training.
2) On May 15, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktar Khrenin had telephone negotiations with the new Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov. The parties discussed the current state of the bilateral relations. The Russian Defense Minister emphasized the special relationship between the armed forces of the two states.
3) Ministers of Defense of Belarus and Kazakhstan signed an agreement on the organization of reception, airfield maintenance and security of military aircraft at military airfields of the Belarusian Armed Forces and the Kazakh Armed Forces.
1.11. Personnel appointments in the security forces
The most important personnel appointment in May was the change of the Chief of the General Staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces. On May 10, Viktar Hulevich was dismissed from the post of the Chief of the General Staff. The official reason was dismissal from military service as a reserve officer due to age with the right to wear military uniform and insignia. Hulevich had held the post of Chief of the General Staff since March 2021.
And on May 23, Pavel Muraveika was appointed the new Chief of the General Staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces. His predecessor, Viktar Hulevich, was dismissed on May 10. Muraveika previously served as first deputy of the State Secretariat of the Security Council. The official is known for a number of scandalous statements. For example, in October 2023, he claimed the right of Belarus to “cut a vital corridor” through Lithuania with the help of weapons to gain access to the transit of goods.
Chapter 2. Russia’s military activity in Belarus
2.1. Russian group in Belarus
The situation with the group of the Russian Armed Forces in Belarus didn’t change in May compared to previous months.
Russian military continue to be stationed at Mazyr (Bokau) and Ziabrauka airfields. According to available information, one anti-aircraft missile divizion of the 1530th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment of the Russian Armed Forces (military unit 31458) is stationed at each of the airfields. The regiment is part of the Eastern Military District and was redeployed to Belarus to take part in the Union Resolve-2022 drills back in early February 2022.
The number of equipment located at the airfields hasn’t changed over the past month.
The fact of the presence of the Russian military at Ziabrauka airfield is confirmed by regular movements of vehicles of the Russian Armed Forces in Mazyr and its vicinity. So far, it hasn’t been publicly reported in what status the Russian military are present at the airfields.
Thus, as of June 1, 2024, the number of Russian military personnel stationed in Belarus didn’t change and can be estimated at about 2000 people. Of these:
- at Baranavichy, Mazyr (Bokau) and Ziabrauka airfields – 500-600 people;
- at the 474th Baranavichy separate radio-technical node (70M6 Volga radar station, military unit 03522) and Russian Navy’s 43rd Vileika communication center (military unit 49390) – up to 1450 people.
Also, the following Russian military law enforcement agencies continue to work in Belarus: the 484th Military Investigation Department (Kletsk district, Minsk region) and the 313th Military Prosecutor’s Office of the garrison (Minsk). The number of personnel involved in these structures could be estimated at dozens of people.
It was reported that the Belarusian Railway is preparing to receive military cargo trains with military equipment, ammunition and personnel of the Russian Armed Forces. Among other things, troops may be sent to Belarus from the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. The following versions can be suggested as to what the transfer of the Russian troops to Belarus may be connected with:
1) Preparations for the drills of the “regional group of troops” of Belarus and Russia, which are planned for 2025;
2) Military training of mobilized Russian citizens at training grounds in Belarus (as it already happened in 2022-2023);
3) Preparations for a new invasion of Ukraine from the territory of Belarus (as it already happened in February 2022).
For each of the scenarios given above, arguments can be given that indicate the possibility (impossibility) of its realization.
Currently, no transfer of the Russian troops to Belarus has been recorded.
2.2. Movements of military equipment and aviation activity
The intensity of movements of military equipment on public roads didn’t change compared to April. Regular movements of equipment of the Russian Armed Forces have been recorded mostly in Mazyr and its vicinity, and in the vicinity of Homiel. More details on the movements of military equipment are available on the map.
No movements of the Russian Armed Forces by rail were recorded in April.
The aviation activity of the Russian Aerospace Forces increased four times in May compared to April. This is connected with two factors: 1) visits of Russian officials to Belarus; 2) conduct of the joint Air Force drills (for more details, see paragraph 1.1 of the review).
Transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces and Russia’s FSB kept arriving at the airfields of the Belarusian Armed Forces and civilian airports:
- Machulishchy airfield: passenger – 1 Tu-214, transport – 1 An-26.
- Baranavichy airfield: transport – 1 An-26.
- Hrodna airport: passenger – 1 An-148.
The following features of aviation activity can be noted:
1) On May 21, Il-22PP aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Lida airfield from Moscow (a jamming and aerial reconnaissance aircraft). On May 23-24, 27-28, flights of the aircraft were recorded. On May 30, the aircraft left for Russia.
2) On May 23, two Su-30SM fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Baranavichy airfield. On May 25, the aircraft left for Russia. The fighters were escorting Vladimir Putin’s arrival in Belarus.
3) On May 25, eight helicopters (Mi-8 and Mi-24) of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Baranavichy airfield from Seshcha airfield. The helicopters took part in the joint Air Force drills (for more details, see paragraph 1.1 of the review). On May 31, the helicopters flew to Russia.
4) We can also note that on May 16 and 17, flights of fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded at Baranavichy airfield.
On May 16, two Su-30SM fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Baranavichy airfield from Voronezh (Russia). Thus, as of June 1, the following aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces are permanently stationed on the territory of Belarus:
- at Lida airfield – one Su-25 attack aircraft;
- at Baranavichy airfield – two Su-24MR reconnaissance aircraft and at least four Su-30SM fighters.
Over the last 1.5 month, the number of aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces stationed at Baranavichy airfield increased by 3 Su-30SM fighters. This may be related to the activity of the so-called “combat training center” for joint training of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces of Belarus and Russia. We recall that the combat training center was opened at Baranavichy airfield in September 2021, which provides training for Belarusian crews of Su-30SM fighters. This purpose is indicated, among other things, by the type and number of aircraft that (so far) have been additionally deployed in Baranavichy.
General conclusions
- One of the main events of May, which may have an impact on the functioning of the Belarusian Armed Forces, was the personnel changes in the General Staff. Initial conclusions about the activities of the new Chief of the General Staff can be drawn in June, since we can expect an intensification of combat training activities (including sudden combat readiness inspections of some units) due to the beginning of the second half of the academic year.
We should also mention the inspection of non-strategic nuclear weapons carriers. The activity reported during the inspection allows us to conclude that the events were an element of an information-psychological special operation. This conclusion can be drawn from the information about the limited scope of the inspection.
Much attention is still paid to territorial defense issues. Drills are held in several regions every month, to which reservists are drafted. National home guard detachments are actively involved in the drills.
The process of rearmament of the Belarusian Armed Forces continues. The main event of May was the supply of the Grad MLRS to the artillery units of the Special Operations Forces, as well as the transfer of a new batch of communications equipment to the troops. Many plans to rearm the army were announced. As the experience of recent years shows, the announced plans are realized with significant delays, if they are realized at all.
The general direction of the national security activities implemented by the Lukashenka regime indicates an increasing (in the regime’s opinion) probability of Belarus’ participation in the war.
- The general conclusion about the situation with the Russian Armed Forces on the territory of Belarus didn’t change. All the conclusions given in the review for February remain valid. Information about the upcoming deployment of Russian troops to Belarus by rail hasn’t been confirmed yet.
In this regard, the joint Air Force drills, in which the Russian Aerospace Forces participated, are illustrative. They once again show that an increase in the Russian military group in Belarus can occur at any moment and suddenly.
The level of activity of the Russian Armed Forces in Belarus in May can be described as low.
- All the conclusions regarding the prospects for the deployment of PMC Wagner mercenaries in Belarus given in the review for October 2023 remain valid. A small number of the mercenaries (up to 100 peopl) are still stationed in Belarus, who serve as instructors for Belarusian military structures. There are no signs of a complete shutdown of mercenaries’ activities in Belarus.
The level of activity of PMC Wagner in Belarus in April can be described as low.
