Information in the review is provided as of August 1, 2024
Summary
The main military events of August in the Belarusian Armed Forces were another escalation on the Belarus-Ukraine border and redeployment of troops to Homiel region. In total, a group of the Belarusian Armed Forces with the number of ≈1420 people was redeployed to the border area. These events are an informational campaign of the Lukashenka regime and they don’t pose a military threat to Ukraine.
Russian drones of the Shahed-136/131 type continued to systematically fly into Belarus. The Belarusian Air Force shot down one of the drones. There is every reason to believe that the Shahed-136/131 flights will continue.
The level of Russia’s military presence hasn’t changed significantly. No increase in the number of the military group in Belarus has been recorded. Information about possible redeployment of units of the Russian Armed Forces to Belarus hasn’t been confirmed. The activity of units of the Russian Armed Forces stationed in Belarus hasn’t changed and remains low.
Up to 100 mercenaries of PMC Wagner stay in Belarus, who continue to systematically train law enforcers of the Lukashenka regime. No other activity of the mercenaries has been recorded.
The general medium-term forecast of the military situation in Belarus remains the same. Currently, there is no reason to expect an offensive by the Russian Armed Forces from the territory of Belarus, as well as an increase in their military presence. Involvement of the Belarusian Armed Forces in combat operations against Ukraine is still unlikely.
Chapter 1. Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus. Internal Troops
1.1. Organization of combat training
Operational-tactical drills of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces
On August 5-25, operational-tactical drills were conducted in the Air Force and Air Defense Forces. The drills became one of the key combat training events for the 2023/2024 academic year. The drills were conducted in two stages: the first in Belarus, the second at the Ashuluk training ground (Astrakhan oblast, Russia). A total of about 4000 servicemen and 150 pieces of equipment took part in the drills.
Units of the 2285th Separate Radio-technical battalion, the 115th, 377th and 1146th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiments, and all air bases of the Belarusian Air Force took part in the first stage of the drills. Anti-aircraft missile and radio-technical troops practiced radar reconnaissance, moving to assigned areas, repelling enemy air attacks (including UAVs), and covering infrastructure facilities. Aviation units practiced strikes against ground targets using new means of destruction and conducting aerial reconnaissance.
Units of the 2287th Separate Radio-technical Battalion, the 56th and 115th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiments, the 15th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade, the 56th Separate Signal Regiment and the 61st Fighter Air Base took part in the second stage of the drills. During the drills, special attention was paid to maneuvering combat operations with the S-300PS SAM system under the cover of Tor-M2K. The crews of these systems performed launches at targets imitating UAVs. Also, for the first time, the Belarusian military performed launches from the Tor-M2K SAM system in motion. In turn, pilots of Su-30SM fighters of the Belarusian Air Force got to use medium- and short-range air-to-air missiles against aerial targets.
We note that units of the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defense Forces conduct drills at training grounds in Russia annually. This is due to the fact that the range of the missiles of some SAM systems in service with the Belarusian Armed Forces doesn’t allow performing combat launches at training grounds in Belarus.
Other combat training activities
Other combat training activities included the following:
1) In August, field drills continued in the Belarusian Armed Forces. During the field drills, units are sent to training grounds for long periods of time (up to a month), where they undergo various exercises and drills. During the month, it was reported that field drills were conducted in: the reconnaissance battalion of the 11th Mechanized Brigade, the 10th Separate EW Battalion, the 231st Artillery Brigade, the 377th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment, the 74th Separate Signal Regiment, the 5th Special Forces Brigade, the 8th Nuclear, Chemical and Biological Protection Brigade, and artillery units of the Special Operations Forces, etc.
2) On August 7, it was reported that preparations were underway to conduct tactical drills with the 6th Mechanized Brigade. The topic of the drills was: “Management of the brigade’s military units and subdivisions during combat operations.” After the completion of additional staffing and the conscription of about 200 conscripts from the reserve, the brigade’s units began combat coordination. The active phase of the drills was at training grounds and terrain of Hrodna region. According to the Commander of the Western Operational Command, during the tactical drills, “the issue of restoring control over an area where a large number of lakes and swamps prevail” was practiced.
3) On August 7-8, command-staff drills on the topic “Management of troops in an operational association operation” were held under the direction of the commander of the Northwestern Operational Command. The purpose of the drills was to improve the readiness and ability of the operational command and military units to provide continuous management during combat operations. During the drills, the following issues were practiced: ensuring the sustainability of troops’ management and increasing the survivability of command posts, combating sabotage and reconnaissance groups and illegal armed formations, planning and use of UAVs for reconnaissance (including loitering munitions), etc.
4) Regular exercises with units of the Belarusian Armed Forces continue to be conducted on the basis of one of the strongholds of the Khrenin’s Line, located in Zhabinka district. There were reports of training sessions with servicemen of the 105th Separate Mechanized Battalion of the 11th Mechanized Brigade.
5) Trainings on repelling attacks on military town facilities and countering UAV flights were conducted in the 6th Mechanized Brigade and the 147th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment. The MR-155 Baikal shotgun was used to suppress UAVs.
6) Servicemen of the Western Operational Command, Northwestern Operational Command and Special Operations Forces performed combat launches from the Igla man-portable SAM system, ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft launcher, Strela-10 and Osa SAM systems at the Damanava training ground.
7) Soldiers of the 11th Mechanized Brigade took part in joint drills with border guard bodies.
8) On August 27-29, tactical and specialty drills were held at the Minsk military commandant’s office. As part of the drills, units of the military commandant’s office marched to the assigned area to practice such tasks as maintaining military discipline and law and order, patrolling, organizing access control, etc.
9) In August, a combat readiness inspection of the motorized rifle and tank units of the 19th Mechanized Brigade began. As part of the activities conducted, at least 100 conscripts were drafted from the reserve. The removal of military equipment from storage was reported. On August 31, another stage of the brigade’s inspection was reported. Soldiers began loading equipment for departure to the assigned areas where the tactical drills would take place.
Drills on the territory of Russia
In August, the following units of the Missile and Artillery Troops of the Belarusian Armed Forces were sent to “practice the issues of combat use” at training grounds in Russia:
- the 336th Rocket Artillery Brigade – units armed with the Polonez-M and Smerch MLRS;
- the 465th Missile Brigade – units armed with the Iskander-M missile system.
Conducting drills with the Missile and Artillery Troops at training grounds abroad is a common practice. For example, in 2019, the Belarusian military performed combat launches from the Polonez MLRS and Tochka-U missile systems at the Sary-Shagan training ground (Kazakhstan).
It was also reported that a unit of the 127th Signal Brigade (territorial) had been sent to take part in drills on the territory of Russia. It was not reported in which drills exactly.
And the second stage of the operational-tactical drills with the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defense Forces was held at the Ashuluk training ground (Russia) (for more details, see above).
It was reported that computer command-staff drills are scheduled to take place in fall 2024 as part of the Unified Regional Air Defense System of Russia and Belarus.
Separately, we should mention the joint exercises held in Moscow with servicemen of special units of the Rosgvardiya and the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Belarus. The participants exchanged experience in organizing diving missions and methods of searching for explosive objects.
Internal Troops
Significant combat training activities included the following:
1) A combat group of the Berkut, Grom, Shtorm and Buran special forces detachments conducted combat coordination at the Valoushchyna training center. At the final stage of the training session, participants practiced detection and elimination of sabotage and reconnaissance groups. On August 20, the Commander of the Internal Troops and his deputy met with the participants of the training session. At the meeting, they discussed innovations in combat strategy, increasing work with UAVs, etc. The combat coordination course ended on August 22.
2) Company tactical and specialty exercises were held with servicemen of the 6th Separate Militia Battalion (military unit 5526). Their topic was the fulfillment of the unit’s tasks to protect transport infrastructure facilities and suppress illegal armed formations.
3) Tactical exercises were held in the 2nd Patrol Battalion of the 1st Militia Brigade (military unit 5448) to suppress the activities of a conditional enemy. The soldiers improved their skills in the protection and defense of important facilities, practiced the suppression of attempts to penetrate and repulsion of an attack. Particular attention was paid to the deployment of the battalion in a wooded area.
4) Units of Nuclear, Chemical and Biological Protection of the 1st Militia Brigade, the 3rd Special Forces Brigade and the 11th Separate Special Battalion took part in the field drills of the 8th Brigade of Nuclear, Chemical and Biological Protection of the Belarusian Armed Forces.
Separately, we can mention regular combat training exercises with the Chest’ special forces detachment (it consists of volunteer members of the Chest’ Association of Veterans of special forces units of the Ministry of Internal Affairs). Almost every weekend, exercises in firearms, engineering, medical training, UAV operation, etc. are held with the volunteers of the unit at the Valoushchyna training center. To conduct the exercises, they involve, among others, former mercenaries of PMC Wagner, instructors of the Rys’ separate special forces detachment, as well as the TAK MED Special Training Center (Russia).
The Chest’ special forces detachment has regular meetings with the command of the Internal Troops. For example, on August 3, the volunteers met with the Internal Troops commander and his deputy. During the meeting, they discussed plans for the technical and transport equipment of the Chest’ special forces detachment, as well as the use of volunteer units during combat missions. It was also reported that in the “near future”, a military training session will be held with the personnel of the Chest’ special forces detachment.
Training of Belarusian enforcers by former PMC Wagner mercenaries
Training of servicemen by former PMC Wagner mercenaries continued in August.
It is known that the mercenaries continue to work with servicemen of the Internal Troops systematically. However, this cooperation is not publicly recognized. Earlier we wrote that the press service of the Internal Troops stopped mentioning PMC Wagner in its publications after Lukashenka’s criticism. Since the beginning of February 2024 and up to the present time, the mercenaries have been publicly referred to as “experienced instructors” or not mentioned at all.
For this reason, the ongoing cooperation can be judged by circumstantial evidence (mainly photos and videos). It is known that in August, the mercenaries conducted:
- comprehensive firearms exercises with the 11th Separate Special Battalion (military unit 7434);
- combat training exercises with sergeants of the 4th Militia Brigade (military unit 7404);
- Exercises with volunteers of the Chest’ special forces detachment;
- exercises with servicemen of the training battalion of the 2nd Militia Brigade (military unit 3310) being trained in the position of “squad leader”, etc.
There were no reports of the mercenaries conducting training with the Belarusian Armed Forces.
1.2. Movements of military equipment and aviation activity
The main factors that affected the intensity of movements of military equipment and aviation activity in August were: 1) redeployment of troops to Homiel region (for more details, see paragraph 1.3 of the review); 2) flights of Russian UAVs of the Shahed-136/131 type into Belarus (for more details, see paragraph 1.11 of the review); 3) a number of combat training activities both in Belarus and Russia (for more details, see paragraph 1.1 of the review).
The intensity of recorded movements of military equipment increased compared to July. As in previous months, there was nothing unusual in movements of the equipment of the Belarusian Armed Forces. Most of the movements are concentrated in the vicinity of the areas where the garrisons and training grounds of the Belarusian Armed Forces are located. Especially active movements were recorded in Hrodna region – due to tactical drills with the 6th Mechanized Brigade (for more details, see paragraph 1.1 of the review). The activity of movements of troops in Homiel region also increased.
More details on the movements of military equipment are available on the map of military activity.
The intensity of movements of the Belarusian Armed Forces by rail increased more than two-fold compared to July. During the month, trains with military equipment were recorded in Hrodna, Minsk, as well as at Palonka (Baranavichy district), Aziaryshcha (Minsk), Luninets, Barysau, Navabelitskaya (Homiel), Kozenki (Mazyr), Zaslonava, Prudok, Haradok, Kaidanava (Dziarzhynsk), Asipovichy-1, Veraitsy and Vaukavysk-Tsentralny stations.
Information on the movements of military cargo trains is available on the map of military activity.
The intensity of flights of the Belarusian Air Force remained almost at the same level compared to July. Lida, Baranavichy and Machulishchy airfields were mainly used for flights, while Luninets, Ziabrauka, Barautsy, Vosautsy, and Babruisk airfields were used less frequently.
The following notable features of aviation activity can be noted:
1) On August 7, 9, 11-12 and 14-25, 26-29 and 31, flights of fighters of the Belarusian Air Force from Baranavichy airfield were recorded in the southern regions of Belarus. A significant part of these flights were related to interceptions of Russian Shahed-136/131 UAVs (for more details, see paragraph 1.11 of the review).
2) On August 10, 4 Su-25 attack aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force arrived at Babruisk airfield from Lida airfield. On August 18, 20, 22, 24 and 26, flights of attack aircraft were recorded at Babruisk airfield. The aircraft are still stationed at the airfield.
3) On August 20 and 22, a Mi-8 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Zhytkavichy district. And on August 27 – from Machulishchy airfield to Ziabrauka airfield. The flights were related to the inspection of the troops stationed in Homiel region by officials of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus (for more details, see paragraph 1.3 of the review).
According to Leanid Davidovich, the head of aviation of the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defense Forces, the pilots’ flying time increased by 10% in 2024.
1.3. The group of the Belarusian Armed Forces deployed in the border regions. Escalation of the situation on the Belarus-Ukraine border
On August 10, Aliaksandr Lukashenka spoke about the violation of the Belarusian airspace by Ukrainian UAVs. During the briefing, Defense Minister Viktar Khrenin said that on August 9, the duty forces of the Belarusian Armed Forces detected unidentified aerial objects flying from Ukraine to Belarus. After crossing the border, the aerial targets were classified as UAVs, and a command was given to destroy them. As a result of the actions of the Belarusian military, some of the UAVs were shot down. Another part was destroyed by the Russian Armed Forces on the territory of Russia.
According to Khrenin, a Su-30SM fighter and a Mi-24 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force were used to search for and intercept UAVs. Indeed, in the evening of August 9, the fighter and helicopter performed flights. However, they failed to detect the UAV.
During the briefing, Khrenin also said that given the situation in Ukraine and Russia’s Kursk oblast, Lukashenka had given instructions “to strengthen the group of troops in Homiel and Mazyr tactical directions.” According to the official, units of the Special Operations Forces, Ground Forces, Missile and Artillery Troops (including Polonez and Iskander-M missile systems) are involved.
As of September 1, the following units of the Belarusian Armed Forces were concentrated in Homiel region:
- the 339th Separate Mechanized Battalion of the 120th Mechanized Brigade (military unit 04104): 30 armored combat vehicles (BTR-82A), ≈350 people;
- the 355th Separate Tank Battalion of the 120th Mechanized Brigade (military unit 25853): at least 20 armored combat vehicles (T-72B tanks), ≈150 people;
- the 357th Separate Parachute-Airborne Battalion of the 103rd Airborne Brigade (military unit 52500): 30 armored combat vehicles (BTR-70MB1), ≈300 people;
- the 382nd Separate Air Assault Battalion of the 38th Air Assault Brigade (military unit 92800): 30 armored combat vehicles (BTR-82A), ≈300 people;
- the anti-aircraft missile-artillery battery (Tunguska anti-aircraft missile systems) of the anti-aircraft missile-artillery divizion of the 19th Mechanized Brigade (military unit 71327): 16 pieces of equipment, ≈50 people;
- 1 flight (4 Su-25 attack aircraft) of the 116th Assault Air Base (military unit 19764): were redeployed to the operational airfield;
- 2 Mi-8 helicopters of the 50th Combined Air Base (military unit 06752): were redeployed to the operational airfield;
- 1 anti-aircraft missile divizion (S-300PS SAM system) of the 15th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade (military unit 30151): 5 self-propelled launchers, 5N63S command post, 76N6 radar, ≈70 people;
- the medical special forces detachment of the 432nd Main Military Clinical Medical Center of the Belarusian Armed Forces: ≈ 50 people;
- special forces units of the Internal Troops (Grom special forces detachment, military unit 6713; Shtorm special forces detachment, military unit 5526): ≈100 people;
- special forces units of the KGB and the Ministry of Internal Affairs: ≈50 people.
As of September 1, the number of troops concentrated near the border with Ukraine could be ≈1420 people. This is the minimum confirmed number of troops of the established group. It is likely that EW, communications, UAV, and other units were also redeployed to the border area. The declared redeployment of some units of the Belarusian Armed Forces hasn’t been confirmed yet.
On August 15, in an interview with the Rossiya TV channel, Lukashenka said that up to one third of the Belarusian Armed Forces had allegedly been redeployed to the Ukrainian border. However, this information doesn’t correspond to reality. It should be taken into account that this statement was made in an interview with the Rossiya TV channel and, accordingly, was addressed to the Russian audience.
The number of troops redeployed to Homiel region doesn’t pose a military threat to Ukraine. These events are an informational campaign of the Lukashenka regime in response to the launch of the military operation in Kursk oblast.
We note that a number of resources linked to the Belarusian military are involved in a purposeful disinformation campaign. Its goal is to exaggerate the number of troops, as well as the efforts of the Belarusian Armed Forces in response to another “provocation” on the part of Ukraine. These resources spread information about the fake redeployment of troops to the border with Ukraine, aircraft flights, the redeployment of Russian troops to Belarus, etc. The information is spread by these resources.
The disinformation campaign is aimed at both the Russian and Ukrainian information field. In the first case, the campaign may be aimed at demonstrating the “involvement” of the Lukashenka regime in the “confrontation” with Ukraine. In the second case – to maintain tension in Ukrainian society because of the existing “threat from the north” (to demonstrate the same “involvement” in the confrontation with Ukraine).
We can expect that units of the Belarusian Armed Forces will be stationed in Homiel region on a rotational basis in the coming months. The withdrawal of some units to the permanent deployment points will be influenced, among other things, by the course of combat operations in Kursk oblast. However, the complete withdrawal of units of the Belarusian Armed Forces from Homiel region won’t take place yet.
1.4. Territorial defense and national home guard. Military commissariats
Territorial defense. National home guard
In August, training sessions with conscripts of the territorial troops were held in three regions of Belarus at once.
1) On August 1-23 – in the Maskouski district of Minsk. 130 reservists were drafted. The program and objectives of the training session were standard, without any peculiarities. As part of the training session, command-staff drills were held on August 20-22. During the drills, they practiced the protection and defense of infrastructure facilities, maintaining law and order in the city together with the internal affairs bodies, combating sabotage and reconnaissance groups, etc.
2) On August 6-30 – in Vaukavysk district (Hrodna region). 50 reservists were drafted. A special feature of the training session was the participation of the formed separate rifle battalion of the territorial troops in tactical drills, which were conducted with the 6th Mechanized Brigade. During the drills, the battalion was transferred to the operational subordination of the brigade. During the tactical drills, the conscripts performed the tasks of serving at checkpoints, searching for and blocking sabotage and reconnaissance groups and illegal armed formations.
3) From August 20 to September 13 – in Slutsk district (Minsk region). 30 reservists were drafted. It was noted that the transfer of the battalion into operational subordination of the commander of the 19th Mechanized Brigade with subsequent participation in tactical drills would be practiced.
From August 26 to September 6, the second stage of the inspection of the territorial defense management bodies of Homiel region is held under the leadership of the head of the territorial defense department – the General Staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces. The purpose of the inspection is to assess the level of training of the territorial defense of the region, as well as to determine the effectiveness of work of the officials of the district executive committees and military commissariats of Homiel region in the formation of the territorial troops. No other details about the inspection were reported.
In August, activities related to the formation of national home guard detachments were reported. For example, firearms training was conducted in Vaukavysk with volunteers of the national home guard detachments. Exercises were also held in the town with the chairpersons of village executive committees on the procedure for formation of national home guard detachments. There were also reports of similar exercises in Stolin, Homiel, Mstsislaul, Lahoisk district, Barysau, etc.
Military commissariats
On August 9, mobilization drills were completed in the military commissariats of Vitsiebsk region. As part of the drills, they practiced notification of conscripts and verification of their records, prevention and elimination of emergencies in case of an armed attack on the military commissariat.
During the month, it was reported that military commissariats conducted exercises with officials of organizations that supply vehicles and with the administrations of headquarters for notification of conscripts. Inspections of organizations that supply vehicles, centers for notification and collection of conscripts, etc., were conducted.
We can separately mention the unscheduled inspection of the military commissariat of Dziarzhynsk and Uzda districts of Minsk region. The inspection was conducted on August 22-23 by the General Staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces. A control notification was carried out with the subsequent appearance of about 200 reservists at the collection point.
Another conscription for compulsory military service starts in September. On August 7, the decree “On dismissal to the reserve and conscription for compulsory military service, service in the reserve” was signed. The document provides for drafting citizens of Belarus over 18 years old, fit for service, for compulsory military service (service in the reserve) in September-November 2024. It is notable that the timing of the fall conscription has been reduced by one month (previously, the fall conscription was usually held from August to November). The reason for the reduction is unknown. At the same time, military service under contract continues to become more popular. In 2024, more than 200 conscripts from Minsk chose contract military service instead of compulsory service.
Another activity of military commissariats in August was the conscription of reserve officers for military service. During the month, it was reported that military commissariats of Minsk city and Brest region drafted at least 10 reserve officers. Reserve officers are drafted on the basis of Decree No. 179 of 29.04.2024. The peculiarity of the conscription of officers in 2024 is that the number of officers drafted for service was classified.
Due to technical work on the pravo.by website, it is temporarily impossible to get up-to-date statistics on the number of criminal cases against conscripts who evaded conscription for compulsory military service. In August, at least 5 sentences were reported in criminal cases of evasion of conscription for compulsory military service (p. 1 Art.435 of the Criminal Code).
1.5. Military training sessions with reservists
Training sessions with reservists were reported in the following units of the Belarusian Armed Forces and the Internal Troops in August:
- the 557th Engineering Brigade (10 reservists);
- the 147th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment (10 reservists);
- the 46th Missile and Ammunition Arsenal (22 reservists);
- the 25th Missile and Artillery Armament Arsenal (10 reservists);
- the 5th and 7th Militia Brigades (20 reservists);
- the 74th Signal Regiment (20 reservists);
- the 111th Artillery Brigade (10 reservists);
- the 815th Technical Support Center (20 reservists);
- the 110th Material Support Regiment (15 reservists);
- the 72nd Joint Training Center (40 reservists);
- the 377th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment (20 reservists);
- the 7th Engineering Regiment (10 reservists);
- the 120th Mechanized Brigade (140 reservists);
- the 6th Mechanized Brigade (200 reservists);
- the 19th Mechanized Brigade. (100 reservists).
In total, at least 647 people were drafted to the training sessions in these units.
There was also information that military commissariats of Minsk and Homiel regions sent 125 reservists to a military training session.
In August, 210 reservists were drafted to training sessions of the territorial troops in Maskouski district of Minsk (from August 1), Vaukavysk district (from August 6) and Slutsk district (from August 20). Also, according to the updated information, in July, not 200, but 300 reservists were drafted to a military training session to conduct mobilization drills in Vitsiebsk region.
Thus, the total number of reservists drafted to military training sessions in August can be at least 982 people. And in total since the beginning of 2024 – 10,504 people. We note that this is the minimal number of reservists who have undergone military training sessions. In reality, their number may be several times higher, since open sources publish only fragmentary data on conscription to military training sessions.
The Ministry of Defense of Belarus hasn’t reported the number of conscripts to be drafted to military training sessions in 2024. A total of 9000 people were planned to be drafted to training sessions in 2023.
1.6. Supplies of new weapons to the troops
No supplies of new weapons to the troops were reported in August.
Announced plans for rearmament
Commander of the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defense Forces Andrei Lukyanovich told in an interview about rearmament plans. According to the official, the Belarusian Air Force will receive another batch of Mi-35M helicopters and a flight (4 pieces) of Su-30SM2 fighters. Aircraft will also be equipped with onboard defense systems.
It should be noted that Belarusian military officials for the first time publicly announced the upcoming transfer of Su-30SM2 fighters (modernized version of Su-30SM) to Belarus. Unofficial information about the transfer of Su-30SM2 fighters to the Belarusian Air Force was published in June 2024.
1.7. Development of military infrastructure. Formation of new units. Staffing of troops, training of military personnel
Development of military infrastructure
There were no reports on the construction of military infrastructure facilities in August.
Formation of new units
There were no reports on the formation of new units in August.
Staffing of units
Vacancies requiring knowledge of foreign languages have opened in the radio-electronic reconnaissance and communication units of the Belarusian Armed Forces. Specialists with knowledge of the official languages of NATO countries bordering Belarus (Lithuanian, Latvian, Polish, and English) are invited to serve under contract.
Amid the belligerent rhetoric of the Lukashenka regime, as well as the constant accusations of aggressive actions by Western countries against Belarus, this is not surprising. We may assume that the military is increasing its reconnaissance against the NATO countries bordering Belarus.
1.8. Tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus
There was no new information related to TNWs in Belarus in August.
As we have repeatedly previously noted, currently there is still no reliable data that would confirm the deployment of TNWs on the territory of Belarus.
1.9. Amendments to legislation in the military sphere
No amendments to military legislation were reported in August.
1.10. International military cooperation
In August, a military delegation from Iran paid an official visit to Belarus to discuss cooperation in the information sphere. Representatives of the Signal Troops of the Belarusian Armed Forces visited Vietnam.
Military officials held meetings with diplomats from Kazakhstan and China. It was also reported that the accreditation of the military attaché at the Bulgarian Embassy in Belarus was completed.
Other events of international cooperation included:
1) A working visit of Commander of the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defense Forces Andrei Lukyanovich to Tehran. The head of the Belarusian military delegation held meetings with the command of the Iranian army. The delegation also visited the facilities of the Iranian military infrastructure. The purpose of the visit was to study Iranian experience in fighting UAVs.
2) Separately, we should also note the development of relations with China. It was reported about the visit of the Belarusian military delegation to China to exchange experience of participation of military personnel in peacekeeping operations.
No important events within the CIS and CSTO were reported.
1.11. Flights of Russian UAVs of the Shahed-136/131 type into Belarus
In August, Russian UAVs of the Shahed-131/136 type, which were initially launched for strikes against the territory of Ukraine, continued to fly into the airspace of Belarus.
A total of 12 UAVs of the Shahed-131/136 type flying into the country were recorded on August 21, 26, 27, 29 and 31. In some cases, duty fighters of the Belarusian Air Force were used to intercept them.
According to available information, on August 29, a fighter of the Belarusian Air Force used missiles to attack a Russian UAV. Presumably, the Shahed-131/136 was destroyed. This is the first case of the Belarusian Armed Forces shooting down a Russian UAV launched against the territory of Ukraine. The reasons for the attack of the Russian Shahed-131/136 are unknown.
There is no information about what happened to the other 11 UAVs that flew into Belarus.
As for the reasons for the flights of Russian UAVs into Belarus, no new information has been received. At the same time, two versions remain the most probable: 1) Changed tactics of using UAVs by the Russian military. During missile attacks, Russian UAVs fly into the territory of Belarus (where they can’t be shot down by Ukrainian air defense units) to subsequently fly to the territory of Ukraine. Such actions may, for example, prolong the duration of missile attacks. 2) Due to the work of Ukrainian EW systems (e.g., the Pokrova GPS spoofing system), Russian UAVs change their flight trajectory and fly into Belarus.
Currently, there is no reason to believe that the flights of Russian UAVs of the Shahed-136/131 type into Belarus will stop in the near future. There has been no official reaction from the Lukashenka regime to the UAV flights.
Chapter 2. Russia’s military activity in Belarus
2.1. Russian group in Belarus
The situation with the group of the Russian Armed Forces in Belarus didn’t change in August compared to previous months.
Russian military continue to be stationed at Mazyr (Bokau) and Ziabrauka airfields. According to available information, one anti-aircraft missile divizion of the 1530th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment of the Russian Armed Forces (military unit 31458) is stationed at each of the airfields. The regiment is part of the Eastern Military District and was redeployed to Belarus to take part in the Union Resolve-2022 drills back in early February 2022.
The presence of the Russian military at Ziabrauka airfield is confirmed by regular movements of vehicles of the Russian Armed Forces in Mazyr and its vicinity. So far, it hasn’t been publicly reported in what status the Russian military are present at the airfields. At the same time, in March 2022, Lukashenka said that he had asked the Russian president to leave “some forces to cover the Homiel direction.”
Thus, as of September 1, 2024, the number of Russian military personnel stationed in Belarus can be estimated at about 2000 people. Of these:
- at Baranavichy airfield – up to 50 people;
- Mazyr (Bokau) and Ziabrauka airfields – up to 500 people;
- at the 474th Baranavichy separate radio-technical node (70M6 Volga radar station, military unit 03522) and Russian Navy’s 43rd Vileika communication center (military unit 49390) – up to 1450 people.
Also, the following Russian military law enforcement agencies continue to work in Belarus: the 484th Military Investigation Department (Kletsk district, Minsk region) and the 313th Military Prosecutor’s Office of the garrison (Minsk). The number of personnel involved in these structures could be estimated at dozens of people.
It should be noted that in August, a search crew (about 10 people) of the 90th Separate Special Search Battalion of the Russian Armed Forces arrived in Belarus. The battalion is the only unit in the Russian Armed Forces, which searches for and identifies the remains of soldiers killed during the war. In August-September, Russian servicemen will conduct search operations in Polatsk district of Vitsiebsk region.
It was also reported about the preparation of the Lida airfield for receiving aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces. It was noted that “specialists of the airfield and material support battalion are carrying out a set of measures to prepare parking lots for aviation equipment,” At the time of the review preparation, the information about the redeployment of Russian aviation to Belarus wasn’t confirmed.
2.2. Movements of military equipment and aviation activity
The intensity of movements of military equipment by public roads didn’t change compared to July. Regular movements of equipment of the Russian Armed Forces were recorded in Mazyr district, where the Russian Armed Forces are permanently deployed (for more details, see paragraph 2.1 of the review). More details on the movements of military equipment are available on the map.
No movements of the Russian Armed Forces by rail were recorded.
In August, the aviation activity of the Russian Aerospace Forces decreased more than five times compared to July. This was primarily due to the reduction of the aviation group of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Belarus that occurred in July.
Transport and passenger aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces and Rosgvardiya kept arriving in Belarus in August:
- Baranavichy airfield: transport aircraft – 1 An-72, 1 An-26 of the Russian Aerospace Forces.
- Minsk National Airport: passenger aircraft – 1 Tu-204 of the Rosgvardiya.
As of September 1, the following aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces are permanently deployed in Belarus: Baranavichy airfield – 4 Su-30SM fighters.
General conclusions
- In August, the key event for the Belarusian Armed Forces was a new round of escalation on the Belarus-Ukraine border. In total, a group of the Belarusian Armed Forces with the number of ≈1420 people was redeployed to Homiel region. These events are an informational campaign of the Lukashenka regime in response to the beginning of the military operation in Kursk oblast. These events don’t pose a military threat to Ukraine.
Russian UAVs of the Shahed-131/136 type continued to fly into Belarus. In general, we can note that UAV flights are gradually becoming more routine amid the absence of any comments from representatives of the Lukashenka regime. It is notable that one of the UAVs was shot down by a fighter of the Belarusian Air Force. We can predict that the Shahed-131/136 flights into Belarus will continue.
September is expected to be full of military events. For example, bilateral drills of the Belarusian Armed Forces – the last major combat training event of the 2023/2024 academic year – are to take place.
The general direction of the national security activities implemented by the Lukashenka regime indicates an increasing (in the regime’s opinion) probability of Belarus’ participation in the war. At the same time, the participation of the Belarusian Armed Forces in combat operations on the side of Russia still looks unlikely.
- The general conclusion on the situation with the Russian Armed Forces on the territory of Belarus didn’t change. All the conclusions given in the review for February remain valid.
No increase in the number of the Russian group in Belarus has been recorded. No rotations of the units stationed at airfields in Homiel region were recorded.
The information about the upcoming transfer of Russian troops to Belarus by rail, which was reported in May 2024, hasn’t been confirmed yet. The information about the redeployment of additional forces of the Russian Aerospace Forces to Lida airfield hasn’t been confirmed yet either.
The level of activity of the Russian Armed Forces in Belarus in August remained low.
- All the conclusions regarding the prospects for the deployment of PMC Wagner mercenaries in Belarus given in the review for October 2023 remain valid. A small number of the mercenaries (up to 100 people) are still stationed in Belarus, who serve as instructors for Belarusian military structures (mostly the Internal Troops). There are no signs of a complete shutdown of mercenaries’ activities in Belarus so far.
The level of activity of PMC Wagner in Belarus in August remained very low.
