The main military events on June 1-4.
Aviation activity
- Aviation activity was recorded at Machulishchy, Baranavichy, Lida airfields, and at Minsk National Airport. Flights of aircraft and helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force and Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded.
- An-148 passenger aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces (RF-61718) and Tu-124 aircraft of the FSB of Russia (RA-64523) left Machulishchy airfield and Minsk National Airport.
Rail activity
- On June 2, a military cargo train with personnel of the Russian Armed Forces arrived at Baranavichy-Tsentralniya station.
- On June 2, a military cargo train with equipment of the 103rd Airborne Brigade of the Belarusian Armed Forces was spotted in the Vitsiebsk district. The train was moving towards Orsha.
- On June 3, a military cargo train with equipment of the Russian Armed Forces was being unloaded at Asipovichy-1 station.
Movements by road
- No large columns (10+ pieces) with military vehicles of the Russian Armed Forces were recorded. Single vehicles and small columns of the Russian Armed Forces were spotted in Mazyr, Slutsk, and on some sections of the M1 highway.
- A group of Russian soldiers was spotted in Baranavichy.
- No large columns (10+ pieces) with military vehicles of the Belarusian Armed Forces were recorded. Single vehicles and small columns of the Belarusian Armed Forces were spotted in Minsk, Homiel, Baranavichy, Barysau, and on some sections of the М1, М3, М5, R99 highways.
- We should also note a column with military equipment of the 51st Artillery Brigade of the Belarusian Armed Forces, which was moving along the R82 highway (Parychy – Aktsiabrski).
General conclusion
The conclusions on the situation made in the reports for May 15 and May 19 remain valid.
Military cargo trains with equipment and personnel of the Russian Armed Forces continue to arrive in Belarus. It’s important to note that if in February-April 2023 we observed a decrease in the size of the contingent stationed in Belarus, then since mid-May the trend has reversed. The estimated number of the contingent of the Russian Armed Forces, which is now stationed in Belarus, is twice lower than in January 2023.
Currently, the Russian Armed Forces are increasing the number of military personnel who are trained at the training grounds in Belarus. There are still no signs of preparations for a military operation against Ukraine from the territory of Belarus.
Changes in the size of the group of the Russian Armed Forces in Belarus:
Arrived in Belarus:
- Equipment — at least 25 pieces (trucks and artillery weapons);
- Personnel — about 370 people.
