20.12.2023 Data as of 18:00 (GMT+3) 20.12.2023
According to the Ministry of Defense of Belarus, about 10,200 people were drafted during the fall-2023 conscription (200 of them – for service in the reserve) to “staff the Armed Forces, other troops and military formations.” Conscripts are used not only to staff the Belarusian Armed Forces, but also the Internal Troops, the Border Troops and the State Security Committee (KGB).
Based on data from open sources on the number of those who have taken a military oath, we analyzed the distribution of conscripts drafted for active service in different branches and types of troops.
Note. Open sources often gave an approximate number of soldiers who took the oath (e.g., “about 500 people”). In some cases, the number of those who took the oath was counted using photos and videos. Also, we should keep in mind that some servicemen will be dismissed from the army due to their health condition. Therefore, the results of the total number of those who took the oath may have an inaccuracy of 5-10%.
Staffing of the Internal Troops, the Border Troops and the KGB
On November 11, more than 2000 servicemen took the military oath in all military units of the Internal Troops. Also, in July-October, it was reported that 110 servicemen of the Internal Troops who entered military service under contract without completing active service took the oath. A total of 2110 people took the oath in units of the Internal Troops during the fall conscription.
The dynamics of the number of those who took the oath in 2011-2023 is illustrated in the chart below.
Nothing unusual was observed during the fall-2023 conscription in the Internal Troops. The number of those drafted for service is comparable to the fall drafts of previous years. In general, more servicemen are drafted during the fall conscription than during the spring conscription. This is connected with the fact that the fall conscription includes graduates of educational institutions (the majority graduate in summer, June).
On November 25, 2100 recruits of the Border Troops took the oath. The dynamics of the number of those who took the oath in 2011-2023 is presented in the chart below.
We can note a record conscription to the Border Troops since 2011. As in the case of the Internal Troops conscription, there is a correlation between the number of conscripts drafted during the fall and spring conscriptions.
It is known that citizens are drafted for conscription to only one KGB unit – the 14th Regiment of Governmental Communication located in Maladzechna. According to social media, on December 9, more than 60 recruits took the oath in the regiment.
Staffing of the Belarusian Armed Forces
A significant part of recruits drafted for active service get to a training unit where they are trained in their specialty. This is the 72nd Joint Training Center for Warrant Officers and Junior Specialists located in Barysau. On November 25, more than 2500 recruits took the oath there. After the training course, they will be distributed among other units of the Belarusian Armed Forces.
The dynamics of the number of those who took the oath in 2016-2023 is given in the chart below.
The number of those drafted into the 72nd Training Center is within the range of previous years.
At the same time, the vast majority of recruits immediately enter military units of the Belarusian Armed Forces where, after a course of initial military training, they are distributed among units and continue their service. Let’s consider in detail the distribution of servicemen by branches and types of troops.
1. Special Operations Forces.
A total of 1387 servicemen took the oath in the units:
- the 103rd Airborne Brigade — over 500;
- the 38th Air Assault Brigade — over 577;
- the 5th Special Purpose Brigade, the 91st Guard and Service Battalion, and the 742nd Field Communications Center — about 310.
The dynamics of the number of those taking the oath in 2022-2023 are shown in the chart below.
The number of those drafted into units of the Special Operations Forces is within the range of previous years.
2. Air Force and Air Defense Forces.
A total of 1509 servicemen took the oath:
- Biaroza garrison (the 16th Aircraft Electronic Warfare Regiment, radio-technical center of the 8th Radio-Technical Brigade) – 150;
- the 56th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment and the 83rd Engineering-Airfield Regiment – over 100;
- the 15th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade – 263;
- the 49th Radio-Technical Brigade – 175;
- the 8th Radio-Technical Brigade – 176;
- the 120th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade and the 49th Radio-Technical Brigade; the 50th Combined Air Base and the 61st Fighter Air Base – over 200;
- the 115th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment – over 60;
- the 56th Separate Signal Regiment – 120;
- the 1st Air Defense Missile Regiment – 65;
- the 116th Assault Air Base – 70;
- the 1146th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment – 70;
- Polatsk garrison (the 377th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment, the 228th Electronic Warfare Regiment and the 276th Guard and Service Battalion) – 60.
3. Ground troops and special forces (including central subordination units).
A total of 3831 servicemen took the oath, including:
3.1 Western Operational Command — 1233:
- Hrodna garrison (the 6th Mechanized Brigade, the 74th Signal Regiment, the 557th Engineering Brigade, the 250th Guard and Service Battalion, the 22nd Special Purpose Company) – 700;
- the 557th Engineering Brigade – 30;
- the 111th Artillery Brigade, the 48th Electronic Warfare Battalion, the 230th combined arms training ground, the 815th Technical Support Center, the 108th Material Support Regiment – 93;
- the 147th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment – 60;
- the 11th Mechanized Brigade – over 350.
3.2 Northwestern Operational Command — 1070:
- Barysau garrison (the 60th Signal Regiment, the 7th Engineering Regiment, the 740th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment, the 258th Guard and Service Battalion, the 527th Special Purpose Company, the 110th Material Support Regiment, and the 814th Technical Support Center) – over 200;
- Zaslonava garrison (the 19th Mechanized Brigade, the 52nd Specialized Search Battalion, the 231st Artillery Brigade, the 10th Electronic Warfare Battalion, the 3609th artillery ammunition depot and the 391st artillery ammunition base) – over 400;
- the 120th Mechanized Brigade – 470.
3.3 Central subordination units — 1528:
- Military Academy – 45;
- the 361st guard and service base (of the central military administration bodies) – 140;
- Minsk Military Commandant’s Office, Cynological and the 31st Navigation-Topographic Centers – 130;
- the 36th Road and Bridge Brigade and the 65th Automobile Brigade, the 2780th, 2657th and 2766th fuel bases – over 110;
- the 51st Artillery, 336th Rocket Artillery and 465th Missile Brigades – over 230;
- the 85th Signal Brigade, the 86th Signal Brigade, and the 62nd Communications Center – over 100;
- the 188th Engineering Brigade, the 4970th engineering ammunition base, and the 1371st engineering base (engineer weapons) – 106;
- the 2nd Engineering Brigade, Anti-Mine Center – 80;
- the 30th Railway Brigade – over 300;
- the 8th Nuclear, Chemical and Biological Defense Brigade – 60;
- the 153rd Radio-Technical Brigade (special purpose) – 227.
A total of 13,497 recruits of the fall-2023 conscription took the military oath.
As we can see, the total number of those who took the oath is 3200 more than the Ministry of Defense announced. Earlier, the agency announced that 8000 conscripts drafted for active and reserve service took the oath on November 25. This is a key point. According to our data, 9227 people took the oath on November 25 only in the units of the Belarusian Armed Forces, which is already more than the declared number.
The fact is that conscripts can enter military service under a contract for 2 years instead of active service. For many people this option is more attractive than unpaid active service. For example, according to the Slonim district military commissariat, 80 out of 150 conscripts who were fit for military service in the fall conscription decided to enter the military service under contract. As the analysis of photo reports from the oath-taking ceremonies on November 25 shows, a significant part of those who took the oath together with conscripts were contract servicemen.
Open sources often indicate the total number of servicemen who took the military oath (without categorizing whether they entered active service or under contract). Most likely, this is the reason for the discrepancy between the data of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus and the calculations given above. It is also possible that the Ministry of Defense of Belarus may have provided inaccurate information on the number of conscripts, but we have no data to confirm this.
If we assume that the Ministry of Defense of Belarus didn’t lie about the number of conscripts, then it turns out that during the fall conscription, 3297 people were drafted for contract service instead of active service.
The distribution of recruits of the fall conscription by branches and types of troops is given in the diagram below.
Main conclusions.
1) The results of the fall-2023 conscription fully confirm our previous forecasts. In April, we wrote that due to the reduction in the number of potential conscripts, military service under contract would be used more actively to complete the Belarusian Armed Forces. And in July, we noted that the issue of staffing the units of the Southern Operational Command would not be solved without an increase in the number of those drafted. These forecasts and trends were fully evident during the fall conscription.
According to the results obtained, 24% of all recruits of the fall conscription, or 3297 people, were drafted for contract service instead of active service. The shortest term of such a contract is 2 years, which is 6 months longer than the term of active military service (for citizens who have not received higher education). From this we can conclude that the Ministry of Defense of Belarus has staked on increasing the number of servicemen through conscription under contract. At the same time, the number of those drafted for active service doesn’t change (and is unlikely to change in the near future).
As the results of the spring and fall conscriptions in 2023 show, 1500-2000 people are drafted each conscription to staff the units of the current operational commands (Western Operational Command and Northwestern Operational Command). If we assume that the structure of the Southern Operational Command will repeat the structures of the Western Operational Command and Northwestern Operational Command, it is necessary to increase the number of conscripts by about 4000 people per year. As the results of the fall conscription show, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus is able to do it.
All of the mentioned above, together with measures to increase the number of officers in the army, are preparations for the formation of units of the Southern Operational Command. While the infrastructure is being built, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus is forming personnel reserves to form new battalions, regiments and brigades of the Southern Operational Command. In the future, servicemen will be transferred to new units, as it happened earlier.
For more information on the increase in the number of officers, see a brief of 12.12.2023 “Conscription of reserve officers as a tool for solving the personnel shortage in the Belarusian Armed Forces.”
2) 31.3% of all recruits joined not the Belarusian Armed Forces, but the Border Troops and the Internal Troops. In fall-2023, a record number of conscripts was drafted to serve in the Border Troops for the last 12 years. The probable reason for the increase in the number of conscripts is the strengthening of border protection with Ukraine. For this purpose, for example, two new border outposts are being built in Homiel region. By the end of 2023, the construction of one outpost will be completed and the construction of four more will begin.
It is important to note that the best conscripts are selected to serve in the Border Troops and the Internal Troops. The vast majority of other units of the Belarusian Armed Forces (with the exception of the Special Operations Forces and some units, such as the Information Technology Company or the Honor Guard Company) do not have such a privilege – those who were drafted by the military commissariat go there. Therefore, most of the best qualified conscripts will still not get into the Belarusian Armed Forces.
We note that 18.6% of the recruits of the 72nd Training Center will be distributed among all units and formations of the Belarusian Armed Forces (a small number of them will also serve in the Border Troops and the Internal Troops). For example, commanders of motorized rifle squads, mechanics-drivers and commanders of artillery units, combat vehicles, etc. will arrive from the 72nd Training Center to mechanized brigades. It is hard to say in what proportions they will be distributed among the units of the Belarusian Armed Forces.
For the same reason, 28.5% of recruits drafted into Ground Troops and Special Forces, 11.2% – into Air Force and Air Defense Forces, and 10.3% into Special Operations Forces should not be taken as the final number.
3) There were no other anomalies in the results of the fall-2023 conscription.
