Military activity on the territory of Belarus on September 30-October 6
Aviation activity, movements of the troops by rail and roads in Belarus.
Last week, the rotation of units of the Belarusian Armed Forces, which were redeployed to Homiel region in August, began. Instead of a tank battalion, new units of the Belarusian Armed Forces arrived in Yelsk.
A passenger aircraft of the FSB of Russia arrived at Minsk National Airport. Also, during the week, movements of equipment of the Russian Armed Forces were recorded in Mahiliou, Homiel and Brest regions.
Active movements of the Belarusian Armed Forces by rail were recorded. For example, military cargo trains were spotted in Homiel, Baranavichy and Yelsk.
Aviation activity
Aviation activity was recorded at Machulishchy, Lida, Baranavichy, Babruisk, Luninets, Ziabrauka airfields, at Minsk National Airport, etc. Flights of aircraft and helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force and Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded.
Belarusian Air Force
- On September 30 and October 1, a Mi-24 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to the southern regions of Belarus.
- On October 1, a Mi-8 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Charatsianka (Zhytkavichy district). Then the helicopter flew to Ziabrauka airfield and then to Babruisk airfield. Later, the helicopter returned to Machulishchy via Charatsianka.
- On October 2, flights of Yak-130 combat trainer aircraft were recorded at Babruisk airfield.
- On October 3, a Mi-8 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Charatsianka (Zhytkavichy district). Then the helicopter flew to the Brestski training ground and then to Luninets airfield. On October 4, the helicopter didn’t make any flights. On October 5, the helicopter again flew to the Brestski training ground, and further – to Machulishchy.
Russian Aerospace Forces
- On October 3, an An-148 passenger aircraft of the FSB of Russia arrived at Minsk National Airport. On October 6, the aircraft flew to Kaliningrad (Russia).
Railroad activity
- On October 2, a military cargo train with equipment of the Belarusian Armed Forces was moving from Navabelitskaya station to Homiel-Passazhirski station. It consisted of at least 3 tracked vehicles, GAZ-66 vehicles, and a field kitchen.
- On October 3, a military cargo train with equipment of the Belarusian Armed Forces arrived at Yelsk station. On October 4, the military cargo train continued unloading. It consisted of T-72B tanks, BM-21 Grad MLRS, 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled artillery and BMP-2.
- On October 4, a military cargo train with equipment of the Belarusian Armed Forces was moving from Rusina station (Baranavichy district) to Baranavichy-Palesskiya station. It consisted of 5 T-72B tanks, 3 2S3 Akatsiya self-propelled artillery, 6 Grad MLRS, 4 trucks and other equipment, as well as 2 passenger cars (≈110 people).
Movements by road
- Single vehicles of the Russian Armed Forces were repeatedly spotted in Mazyr and Mazyr district. The movements were connected with the deployment of the anti-aircraft missile divizion of the 1530th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment of the Russian Armed Forces at Mazyr (Bokau) airfield. Equipment of the Russian Armed Forces was also spotted in Biaroza and on the M8 highway.
- Single vehicles and small convoys (up to 10 pieces) of the Belarusian Armed Forces were spotted in Minsk, Biaroza, Mazyr, Yelsk, and on some sections of the М1, М4, М9, R31, R85, N4431, and others highways.
Separately, we can mention a large convoy of equipment of the Belarusian Armed Forces (10+ pieces), which on October 6 was moving along the route: M10, Kalinkavichy–Tserabau (Petrykau district). It was reported that the convoy included SAM systems and other vehicles.
General conclusion on current situation
In the report on military activity for September 9-15 we wrote that in early October, we can expect the first rotation of units of the Belarusian Armed Forces, redeployed to Homiel region in August.
According to available information, the 355th Separate Tank Battalion of the 120th Mechanized Brigade (military unit 25853) was reportedly withdrawn to its permanent deployment point in early October. The unit was one of the first to be redeployed to Homiel region on August 11. At the same time, on October 3-4, a military cargo train with military equipment was unloaded in Yelsk (it’s unknown which unit it was).
Withdrawal of one unit and redeployment of another to Homiel region means rotation of part of the group established in August in the area bordering Ukraine. It is possible that the military cargo trains with equipment of the Belarusian Armed Forces recorded on October 2 and 4 in Homiel and Baranavichy could also be connected with the rotation.
Also, in the report on military activity for September 9-15 we wrote that the most likely scenario for the development of the situation in the near future would be: 1) rotation of the units that arrived in Homiel region in August will take place in early October; 2) the “new shift” will stay in the border area with Ukraine until early December. Note that the first condition is being fulfilled/has been partially fulfilled.
Currently, it is hard to assess changes in the number of the group in Homiel region, as information about new units redeployed to the border with Ukraine needs to be clarified.