Military activity on the territory of Belarus on October 7-13

Aviation activity, movements of the troops by rail and roads in Belarus.

The rotation of units of the Belarusian Armed Forces redeployed to Homiel region in August continued. According to available information, another battalion of the 120th Mechanized Brigade was withdrawn from the border with Ukraine.

During the week, 2 passenger aircraft and 1 transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived in Belarus. In addition, 2 MiG-31K fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived in Machulishchy for the first time in 1.5 years.

Aviation activity

Aviation activity was recorded at Machulishchy, Lida, Baranavichy, Babruisk, Luninets airfields, at Minsk National Airport, etc. Flights of aircraft and helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force, Russian Aerospace Forces and Kazakh Air Force were recorded.

Belarusian Air Force

• On October 7, a Mi-8 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Luninets airfield to Maiskaye (Zhlobin district). Then the helicopter flew to Urytskaye (Homiel district; radio-technical center of the 1052nd Separate Radio-Technical Battalion), Belaya Dubrova (Kastsyukovichy district) and Babruisk airfield. Later the helicopter flew to Machulishchy airfield.
• On October 7, 2 Yak-130 combat trainer aircraft of the 116th Assault Air Base of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Babruisk airfield to Lida airfield.
• On October 8, an Il-76 military transport aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force flew twice from Babruisk airfield to Lida airfield. Probably, the flights were connected with the removal of engineering staff and equipment for ground maintenance of Yak-130 aircraft, which had left for Lida the day before.
• On October 8, a Mi-8 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Karma (Homiel region).
• On October 10 and 12, a flight of a fighter of the Belarusian Air Force from Baranavichy airfield was recorded in the southeastern and southern regions of Belarus.
• On October 11, a Mi-8 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force arrived at Luninets airfield. Then the helicopter flew to Maiskaye (Zhlobin district), Urytskaye (Homiel district; radio-technical center of the 1052nd Separate Radio-Technical Battalion), Belaya Dubrova (Kastsyukovichy district). Later the helicopter flew to Babruisk airfield.

Russian Aerospace Forces

• On October 7, a Tu-154M passenger aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces Forces (RA-85843) arrived at Minsk National Airport from Chkalovski airfield (Russia).
• On October 7, a Tu-154M passenger aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces Forces (RA-85041) arrived at Minsk National Airport from Chkalovski airfield (Russia).
• On October 9, a MiG-31 fighter of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Machulishchy airfield from Shaikovka airfield (Kaluga region, Russia).
• On October 10, a MiG-31 fighter of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Machulishchy airfield from Shaikovka airfield (Kaluga region, Russia).
• On October 10, two MiG-31 fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces left Machulishchy airfield for Russia.
• On October 10, an An-12 military transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Baranavichy airfield from Russia. On the same day, the aircraft departed, presumably to Kaliningrad (Russia).

Kazakh Air Force

• On October 12, a CASA C-295 M transport aircraft of the Kazakh Air Force arrived at Baranavichy airfield from Kazakhstan. On October 13, the aircraft left for Kazakhstan.

Railroad activity

• No railroad activity was recorded.

Movements by road

• No movements of the Russian Armed Forces were recorded.
• Single vehicles and small convoys (up to 10 pieces) of the Belarusian Armed Forces were spotted in Minsk, Aktsiabrski, Smilavichy, Homiel, and on some sections of the М1, М4, М6, М9, R31, R69, N8931, and others highways.

Separately, we can mention a large convoy of equipment of the Belarusian Armed Forces (20+ pieces), which on October 8 was moving along the route: R69, Shastsisnopy (Cherven district)–Smilavichy.

General conclusion on current situation

1) In the report on military activity for September 30-October 6, we wrote about the withdrawal of the 355th Separate Tank Battalion of the 120th Mechanized Brigade (military unit 25853) to the permanent deployment point. According to available information, in early October, the 339th Separate Mechanized Battalion of the 120th Mechanized Brigade (military unit 04104) was also withdrawn from Homiel region to the permanent deployment point. The battalion had been redeployed to the area bordering Ukraine on August 10.

Thus, two battalions of the 120th Mechanized Brigade (tank and mechanized) were withdrawn to the permanent deployment point from Homiel region. Instead, other units of the Belarusian Armed Forces were redeployed to Yelsk.

We should also note the withdrawal of 2 Yak-130 combat trainer aircraft of the 116th Assault Air Base of the Belarusian Air Force from the operational airfield (Babruisk) to the permanent deployment airfield (Lida). Currently, no redeployment of other aviation units of the Belarusian Armed Forces to operational airfields is being recorded.

2) A notable event of the past week was the short-term arrival of two MiG-31K fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces at Machulishchy airfield from Russia. It is unknown exactly what the arrival of the aircraft was related to.

The most probable reasons are the following: 1) informational provocation against Ukraine (deployment of aircraft capable of using long-range weapons on the territory of Belarus); 2) checking the runway of Machulishchy airfield after repairs (in order to deploy aircraft at Machulishchy airfield in the near future – for example, during the West-2025 drills).