Military activity on the territory of Belarus on May 13-19
Aviation activity, movements of the troops by rail and roads in Belarus.
Two Su-30SM fighters arrived at Baranavichy airfield from Russia. In total, at least four fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces are permanently stationed at the airfield. The activity of the Belarusian military in Yelsk district continues to be recorded.
Aviation activity
- Aviation activity was recorded at Machulishchy, Lida, Baranavichy, Kukaviachyna airfields, at Minsk National Airport, Mahiliou and Hrodna airports. Flights of aircraft and helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force and Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded.
- On May 14, an Il-76 military transport aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force flew to Russia from Machulishchy airfield.
- On May 15, 16, 17, four helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force (two Mi-8 and two Mi-24) flew from Machulishchy airfield to Mahiliou airport. The flights were connected with the rehearsals, as well as with a practical exercise of the episode on the defense of Mahiliou airport by the territorial defense forces, which was held during the training session “Military security and defense of the state”.
- On May 16, two Su-30SM fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Baranavichy airfield from Voronezh (Russia). An-26 military transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces also arrived at the airfield.
- On May 16, An-148 passenger aircraft of the Russian FSB arrived at Hrodna airport. The aircraft brought the head of the FSB Border Service, Vladimir Kulishov, to take part in the board meeting of the Border Committee of the so-called “Union State”. On May 17, the aircraft left for Russia.
- On May 16-17, flights of fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces at Baranavichy airfield were recorded.
- On May 19, a CASA C-295 military transport aircraft of the Kazakh Air Force arrived at Machulishchy airfield.
- No flights of helicopters of the 50th Combined Air Base of the Belarusian Air Force in the area of the western border of Belarus were recorded.
Rail activity
No rail activity was recorded.
Movements by road
- No movements of vehicles of the Russian Armed Forces were recorded.
- Small convoys (up to 10 pieces), single vehicles and large convoys (10+ vehicles) of the Belarusian Armed Forces were spotted in Minsk, Kamaryn. Yelsk, and on some sections of the М1, М9, and other highways. We note that the active movements in Minsk are related to the preparations for the military parade to take place on July 3.
Combat training
Combat training activities with units of the Belarusian Armed Forces were conducted at the Uruchcha, Lepelski, Chapialiova, Hozhski training grounds, and at the Valoushchyna training center of the Internal Troops.
Changes in the size of the Russian Armed Forces group and PMC Wagner in Belarus: no data.
General conclusion on current situation
1) Over the last month, the number of aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces stationed at Baranavichy airfield increased by 3 Su-30SM fighters. This may be related to the activity of the so-called “combat training center” for joint training of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces of Belarus and Russia. We recall that the combat training center was opened at Baranavichy airfield in September 2021, which provides training for Belarusian crews of Su-30SM fighters. This purpose is indicated, among other things, by the type and number of aircraft that (so far) have been additionally deployed in Baranavichy.
2) Activity of the Belarusian Armed Forces in Yelsk (Homiel region) continues to be recorded. On April 8-9, air defense units of the Belarusian Armed Forces were redeployed to Yelsk district to protect the Mazyr oil refinery.