Military activity on the territory of Belarus on June 24-30

Aviation activity, movements of the troops by rail and roads in Belarus.

The combat readiness inspection of the Belarusian Armed Forces, which started on June 21 in Brest and Homiel regions, continued. The Lukashenka regime continues to escalate the situation on the Belarus-Ukraine border.

A group of 11 fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived in Belarus to participate in the parade. Su-24MR reconnaissance aircraft flew from Baranavichy airfield to Russia.

Aviation activity

• Aviation activity was recorded at Machulishchy, Lida, Baranavichy, Ziabrauka, Luninets airfields,and at Homiel airport. Flights of aircraft and helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force and Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded.
• On June 24, an An-124 transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Baranavichy airfield from Africa. In the evening of the same day, the aircraft flew to Russia. It is likely that the aircraft arrived to take cargo at the 558th Aircraft Repair Plant.
• On June 24 at 10:30, two Su-24MR reconnaissance aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces flew from Baranavichy airfield to Shatalovo airfield (Russia). The aircraft had been permanently stationed in Belarus since January 2023 and took part in joint Air Force drills of Belarus and Russia (in January 2023 and May 2024). 
• On June 24, an An-12 military transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Baranavichy airfield from Russia. The arrival of the aircraft is probably connected with the flight of Su-24MR aircraft to Russia.
• On June 25, 11 MiG-29, Su-30SM and Su-35 fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Baranavichy airfield from Kubinka airfield (Russia). The aircraft are part of the “Russian Vityazi” and “Strizhi” aerobatic groups of the Russian Aerospace Forces and will take part in the military parade on July 3.
• On June 25, a Mi-24 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force arrived at Luninets airfield from Machulishchy airfield “to patrol and suppress violations of the air borders of Belarus.” 
• On June 26, an Il-76 military transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Machulishchy airfield from Russia. The aircraft brought a parade fireteam of the Kyrgyz Armed Forces to participate in the military parade on July 3.
• On June 26, a helicopter of the 50th Combined Air Base flew near the western border of Belarus. On June 30, a helicopter flew near the southern border.
• On June 26, a Mi-8 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Volma (“Site 400. Kupol”). Then the helicopter flew to Ziabrauka airfield. And in the evening of the same day, it returned to Machulishchy airfield through “Site 400. Kupol”.
• On June 27, a Mi-8 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force flew from Machulishchy airfield to Volma (“Site 400. Kupol”). Then the helicopter flew to Luninets airfield. And in the evening of the same day, it returned to Machulishchy airfield through “Site 400. Kupol”.
• On June 28, an An-148 passenger aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Machulishchy airfield from Moscow.
• On June 28 and 30, flights of fighters of the Belarusian Air Force were recorded in the southern regions of Belarus.
• On June 29, an An-12 military transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Homiel airport from Russia.
• During the week, active flights of aircraft and helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force and Russian Aerospace Forces related to the rehearsals of the parade on the occasion of Independence Day on July 3 were recorded. The rehearsals took place on June 24, 25, 27, 28.

Rail activity

No rail activity was recorded.

Movements by road

• Single vehicles of the Russian Armed Forces were repeatedly spotted in Mazyr district.
• Small convoys (up to 10 pieces) and single vehicles of the Belarusian Armed Forces were spotted in Minsk, Homiel, Aktsiabrski, Maladzechna, Yelsk, and on some sections of the М1, М8, М9, R31, R106, and other highways.

General conclusion on current situation

1) The Lukashenka regime continues to aggravate the situation on the Belarus-Ukraine border within the framework of the so-called “combat readiness inspection”. A new round of escalation began on June 28, when the State Border Committee claimed about the flights of Ukrainian drones on the territory of Belarus and the cache of components for the manufacture of explosive devices that was found.

The video evidence of the events presented by the agency has all the signs of being staged. On the same day, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus said that a divizion of Polonez MLRS was redeployed to the area bordering Ukraine with full ammunition. This was followed by a number of statements of Belarusian military and officials about the escalation of the situation on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border.

All of the mentioned above allows us to state that the State Border Committee together with the Ministry of Defense of Belarus conducts a coordinated PSYOP aimed at escalation of the situation on the Belarus-Ukraine border.

It is possible that PSYOP is specially conducted on the eve of Independence Day in Belarus on July 3 to remind people about “external threats,” among other things. 

This PSYOP also fits a more global agenda. In the situation when the Russian offensive in Kharkiv region has failed and Moscow is ready to negotiate “even tomorrow”, it’s possible to frustrate the Ukrainian information space with a “threat from Belarus.”

At the same time, further escalation of the situation is also possible. For example, with the subsequent deployment of the Russian military contingent to the territory of Belarus to protect the borders of the Union State. We recall that in May, it was reported about the preparation of the railway infrastructure of Belarus to receive military cargo trains with the Russian military. Also, a provocation by the Belarusian security forces to provoke Ukraine to retaliate is not excluded. A “false flag” operation (by Belarusian security forces disguised as Ukrainians) is also possible.

The situation requires further close attention.

2) As of the end of June, the aviation group of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Belarus was represented by 16 aircraft and 11 helicopters. Only 4 Su-30SM fighters and 1 Su-25 attack aircraft are permanently stationed in Belarus. The rest of the aircraft, as well as all the helicopters arrived in Belarus to participate in the military parade, which will be held on July 3. There is no doubt that after the parade is over, the aircraft will return to base airfields in Russia.

3) On June 29, an An-12 military transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Homiel airport from Russia. It is possible that the arrival of the aircraft may be related to another rotation of the Russian contingent stationed at Ziabrauka and Mazyr (Bokau) airfields. Previously, we recorded the rotation of the Russian military in December 2023 and March 2024.