Military activity on the territory of Belarus on February 19-25

Aviation activity, movements of the troops by rail and roads in Belarus.

During the week, flights of helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force were recorded near the state border with Poland, as well as flights of fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces at Baranavichy airfield. Movements of equipment of the Russian Armed Forces were recorded in Mazyr and Baranavichy.

Aviation activity

• Aviation activity was recorded at Machulishchy, Lida, Baranavichy airfields, and at Minsk National Airport. Flights of aircraft and helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force and Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded.
• On February 21, flights of fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces were conducted at Baranavichy airfield.
• On February 19 and 24, flights of helicopters of the 50th Combined Air Base of the Belarusian Air Forces in the area of the state border with Poland were recorded.
• On February 24, a Tu-134 passenger aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces landed at Minsk National Airport. Most likely, the aircraft arrived for maintenance at the Minsk Civil Aircraft Plant No.407.

Rail activity

• On February 21-22, two military cargo trains with equipment of the 335th Tank Battalion and the 358th Mechanized Battalion of the 120th Mechanised Brigade were being formed at Aziaryshcha station.

Movements by road

• Single vehicles of the Russian Armed Forces were repeatedly spotted in Mazyr and on some sections of the M10 highway. On February 19, 3 fuel trucks of the Russian Armed Forces were spotted near the 2657 fuel and lubricant base of the Belarusian Armed Forces (military unit 55435) in Baranavichy. Earlier, it was repeatedly reported that the Russian military receive fuel at the 2657 base. A group of Russian soldiers was spotted in Mazyr. One of the divizions of the 1530th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment of the Russian Armed Forces is accommodated in the vicinity of the town.
• No movements of PMC Wagner vehicles were recorded. According to preliminary information, some of the mercenaries could have left Belarus. This is indicated by the fact that there’s been no information on trainings of the Internal Troops or the Belarusian Armed Forces with the mercenaries. The mercenaries could have left for Russia on the An-12 military transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces, which arrived in Belarus on February 15.
• Small convoys (up to 10 pieces) and single vehicles of the Belarusian Armed Forces were spotted in Minsk, Pinsk, Mazyr, Brest, and on some sections of the М1, М2, М6, R28, R80, R99 and other highways. A convoy of the 15th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment was moving along the R23 highway to the south. Also, a large convoy (40+ vehicles) of the 382th Air Assault Battalion of the 38th Air Assault Brigade of the Belarusian Armed Forces was spotted on the M1 highway (Kobryn-Biaroza).

Combat training

Combat training activities with units of the Belarusian Armed Forces were conducted at the Brestski and Losvida training grounds, as well as in the vicinity of Saki village, Zhabinka district.

Changes in the size of the Russian Armed Forces group and PMC Wagner in Belarus: some of the Wagner mercenaries could have left Belarus (being clarified).

General conclusion on current situation

The available information doesn’t allow us to state unequivocally that some of the mercenaries of PMC Wagner have left Belarus. In general, this could be about:

1) the end of the agreements on the training of Belarusian enforcers and the end of the “mission” of the mercenaries in Belarus;

2) a temporary pause in the training of enforcers (with subsequent resumption/continuation);

3) the rotation of “instructors” (new ones will arrive instead of those who left and will continue to train the enforcers).

It should be noted that some of the vehicles brought to Belarus back in summer 2023 are still stored at the mercenaries’ camp in Tsel village.