What is the situation with the “new shift” of the Russian military in Belarus?
It didn't arrive in Belarus. Is everything okay?
On July 11, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus published a press release, which stated about the rotation of the Russian component of the so-called regional group of troops stationed in Belarus.
The text noted that “now training grounds of the Armed Forces are preparing to receive the next shift for joint training of Belarusian and Russian servicemen.” It was not specified when exactly the “new shift” would arrive.
More than two months have passed since the publication of the press release, and the “new shift” of the Russian military hasn’t appeared in Belarus. At the same time, in early July, the Russian part of the regional group of troops was almost completely withdrawn from Belarus. And in early August, the aviation group of the Russian Aerospace Forces left Belarus. There were no major transfers of the Russian military to Belarus (except for an insignificant number of participants of the CSTO drills Combat Brotherhood-2023).
At the same time, almost immediately after the withdrawal of the Russian contingent of the regional group of troops, information was spread that PMC Wagner would become an “additional force” for the joint group of Belarus and Russia. This (as expected) didn’t happen.
Back in winter 2023, pro-government analysts claimed that “the Russian part of the regional group of troops is now preparing, […] and is ready to move to any part of the border, where there will be a threat of a breakthrough.” Even now, the thesis that “Poland is preparing to invade the territory of Belarus” is still used actively in propaganda resources. However, even the presence of such serious “threats” didn’t prevent the withdrawal of the Russian military from Belarus.
Thus:
- The “new shift” of the Russian military didn’t arrive in Belarus.
- The deployment of the regional group of troops and the presence of the Russian military in Belarus was caused not by the protection of the “Union State”, but by the need to train mobilized Russians.
- In case of announcement of a new wave of mobilization in Russia, we can expect a new aggravation of threats to the “Union State” as a pretext for sending Russian mobilized for training to Belarus.