Military events review

Increase in the number of flights of Russian Shahed-131/136 drones, de-escalation on the Belarus-Ukraine border, and major drills in 2025: review of military events in Belarus in October

Information in the review is provided as of November 1, 2024

Summary

De-escalation of the situation on the Belarus-Ukraine border was noted. In October, a number of units of the Belarusian Armed Forces were withdrawn to the permanent deployment points. At the same time, units of the Special Operations Forces and Internal Troops are still stationed in the border area with Ukraine.

Systematic flights of Russian drones into Belarus continued. At least one out of 49 drones was shot down by the Air Defense Forces. Another Shahed-136/131 drone fell and crashed.

The level of Russia’s military presence hasn’t changed. No increase in the number of the military group in Belarus has been recorded. The activity of units of the Russian Armed Forces stationed in Belarus hasn’t changed and remains low. The main factor that can significantly change the situation with the Russian military presence in Belarus is the West-2025 drills.

Up to 100 mercenaries of PMC Wagner stay in Belarus, who continue to systematically train law enforcers of the Lukashenka regime. No other activity of the mercenaries has been recorded.

Currently, the general medium-term forecast of the military situation in Belarus remains the same. There is no reason to expect an offensive by the Russian Armed Forces from the territory of Belarus, as well as an increase in their military presence. Involvement of the Belarusian Armed Forces in combat operations against Ukraine is still unlikely.

Chapter 1. Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus. Internal Troops

1.1. Organization of combat training

Key points in paragraph 1.1:

In general, October was not full of major combat training events. This was due to a number of factors: 1) the end of the academic year in the troops; 2) the retirement of conscripts who have completed their term of compulsory service; 3) the reception of new recruits drafted into the troops during the fall 2024 conscription. 

In general, no major combat training events should be expected until early December. However, a series of events to summarize the results of the 2023/2024 academic year will be held in the coming month. Traditionally, such events are held both in the Belarusian Armed Forces as a whole and in certain branches and types of troops.

The start of the new academic year (2024/2025) will be accompanied by a series of “sudden combat readiness inspections.” In addition, operational-tactical drills (at training grounds both in Russia and Belarus) and joint Air Force drills are scheduled for 2025 with the Air Force and Air Defense Forces (the composition of participants in the drills has not yet been determined).

1.1.1. West-2025 drills

On October 23, during the joint board meeting of the defense ministries of Belarus and Russia, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktar Khrenin spoke about the preparations for the West-2025 joint strategic drills of the Belarusian Armed Forces and the Russian Armed Forces. According to the official, the drills will be “the main event of joint training of military administration bodies and troops in 2025.” During the meeting, the board discussed the main approaches to the preparation and conduct of the drills and approved their concept.

Later, Commander of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces Andrei Lukyanovich said that the West-2025 joint strategic drills would be held in September 2025 in Belarus.

1.1.2. Combat readiness inspection of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces

From September 30 to October 15, a combat readiness inspection of units of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces was conducted. The inspection involved the 1072nd Central Command Post of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces (military unit 07147) and units of the 50th Combined Air Base (military unit 06752).

During the inspection, tactical and specialty drills were held with the 1072nd Command Post. During the drills, the command post’s units marched to assigned areas, where they carried out a range of camouflage measures, organized protection against UAVs and provided radio-electronic cover. The issues of countering enemy aircraft and repulsing air strikes were also practiced. There were reports of the deployment of 10 aviation guidance points staffed with servicemen drafted from the reserve.

On October 15, a send-off for conscripts drafted from the reserve was held at the 1072nd Command Post. No other information about the inspection was reported.

1.1.3. Main combat training activities in the Belarusian Armed Forces

The most notable combat training activities of the Belarusian Armed Forces include the following:

1) A command-staff training with the Western Operational Command was held in Hrodna under the leadership of the Chief of the General Staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces. During the training, the main emphasis was placed on the quality and justification of decisions made by the crews, development of effective measures to prepare the troops for the upcoming actions, and working out modern options for solving tasks, taking into account the experience of the war in Ukraine.

2) One of the mechanized battalions of the 6th Mechanized Brigade was trained at a training stronghold in the Kobryn fortified area. During the training, special attention was paid to clearing dugouts and trench communications, as well as medical aid.

3) Field drills were held at the Hozhski training ground with servicemen of the 7th Separate Tank Battalion of the 11th Mechanized Brigade. They ended with battalion tactical drills. According to the concept of the drills, a motorized rifle company and mortar crews were attached to the battalion and tasked with destroying an illegal armed formation. UAVs were used during the drills.

4) On October 14-18, “scheduled drills” were held on the territory of Malaryta district (Brest region). No other details were reported.

5) On October 16-25, a comprehensive inspection of the management of the Northwestern Operational Command was conducted under the direction of the Chief of Staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces. The purpose of the inspection was to determine the level of officers’ preparation and the ability of the operational command’s management departments (services) to carry out assigned tasks. In addition, on October 22-25, a command-staff training was conducted with the management of the Northwestern Operational Command.

7) A methodological training session with UAV operators was held at the 927th center for training and use of UAVs. The event was attended by representatives of the Belarusian Armed Forces and UAV manufacturers. The servicemen got acquainted with the peculiarities of operating the Supercam S350 UAV, taking into account the experience of the war in Ukraine.

7) On October 24, a training session with commanders of battalions (detachments, divizions) was held at the Lepelski training ground. The topic of the training session was the deployment of command and observation posts and other battalion infrastructure in the area of deployment. Particular attention was paid to equipping command and control points and locations for accommodation of personnel and equipment.

1.1.4. Drills in Russia

On October 19, a group of Belarusian servicemen went to Russia for training at one of the “combat training centers”. According to the head of the main directorate for combat training of the Belarusian Armed Forces, representatives of different branches and types of troops of the Belarusian Armed Forces went for training “to adopt advanced methods of training of troops for further introduction of them into the practice of training of their military units. […] The best of them will become regular instructors in our formations and military units after the training.” The first group of instructors of the Belarusian Armed Forces was trained in Russia in January-February 2024.

In addition, on October 19, the 4th Separate Tank Battalion of the 19th Mechanized Brigade returned to Belarus after completing training at the “combat training center”.

1.1.5. CSTO drills

In October, the Belarusian contingent took part in the Unbreakable Brotherhood-2024 command-staff drills with the CSTO Collective Peacekeeping Forces. Servicemen of the peacekeeping company of the 103rd Airborne Brigade, a combined unit of the Ministry of Internal Affairs (OMON and the Rys’ special forces detachment), representatives of the command of the Special Operations Forces and the Ministry of Defense of Belarus took part in the drills representing Belarus.

A total of more than 2000 servicemen, 500 armored and motorized vehicles, aircraft and UAVs are involved in the drills. As part of the drills, CSTO peacekeeping units practiced repelling an attack on a settlement, blocking and detaining a conditional enemy. The servicemen also practiced duty at checkpoints, patrolling settlements and delivering humanitarian aid by ground and air transport.

It was also announced that three CSTO drills would be held in Belarus in September 2025. These are the Interaction-2025 joint drills with the CSTO rapid response forces, the Search-2025 drills with the reconnaissance forces, and the Echelon-2025 drills with the logistics forces. These drills were held in Belarus in 2023.

1.1.6. Main combat training activities in the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Internal Troops

The most significant events in October included the following:

1) On the basis of the Military Academy, servicemen of the Internal Troops took courses on training artillery fire adjusters. 

2) Soldiers of the 5th Militia Brigade (military unit 6713) underwent tactical and special training, during which they practiced guarding Mahiliou airport. The servicemen deepened their knowledge of countering illegal armed formations, and the commanders improved their skills of unit management in case of a complicated situation.

3) On October 13, it was reported that the fire support group of the Special Rapid Response Squad practiced firing 82 mm Podnos mortar, AGS-17 Plamya grenade launcher, 12.7 mm NSV Utyos machine gun and 122 mm D-30 howitzer. It was not previously reported that the D-30 howitzers had entered service with the unit.

4) Regular trainings with the Chest’ special forces detachment continued. UAV operator training and tactical training were reported during the month. It was also reported that exercises were conducted at the training center of the GuardService private security company.

5) Servicemen of the Special Rapid Response Detachment, as well as the Rys’ and Berkut special forces detachments, attended a two-day course on tactical medicine at the Russian TAKMED center.

Special attention should be paid to the so-called “volunteer units.” These units are composed of former employees and servicemen of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Internal Troops. According to Minister of Internal Affairs Ivan Kubrakou, the Ministry of Internal Affairs has established 22 such units. They are formed in each unit (formation) of the Internal Troops, the Almaz unit of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, as well as OMON (in each region and in Minsk).

Within a month, “as part of the implementation of [Lukashenka’s] order to bring the army and the power block as a whole into perfect condition,” drills were held with the “volunteers.” 

For example, on October 1-9, a training session was held with soldiers of the Smerch special forces detachment (military unit 3214). More than 200 people were drafted. The exercises with reservists were conducted, among others, by instructors with combat experience (former PMC Wagner mercenaries).

On October 8, comprehensive exercises were held with the Smerch and Chest’ special forces detachments. Summarizing the results of the exercises, State Secretary of the Security Council Aliaksandr Valfovich said, “Such events are a new form of conscription: for a day, two days, on weekends, without using the mobilization system.” According to the official, if necessary, reservists (without using the system of military commissariats) will be able to arrive within a few hours to units where equipment and weapons have already been prepared for them.

Similar exercises with “volunteers” were conducted:

1.1.7. Work of former PMC Wagner mercenaries

In October, training of servicemen  of the Internal Troops by former PMC Wagner mercenaries continued. However, cooperation with the mercenaries is still not publicly recognized. Earlier we wrote that the press service of the Internal Troops stopped mentioning PMC Wagner in its publications after Lukashenka’s criticism. Since the beginning of February 2024 and up to the present time, the mercenaries have been publicly referred to as “experienced instructors” or not mentioned at all.

For this reason, the ongoing cooperation can be judged by circumstantial evidence (mainly photos and videos). It is known that in October, the mercenaries conducted: 

There were no reports about trainings with the Belarusian Armed Forces by the mercenaries.

1.2. Movements of military equipment and aviation activity

Key points in paragraph 1.2:

The main factors that affected the intensity of movements of military equipment and aviation activity in October were: 1) redeployment of troops to Homiel region (for more details, see paragraph 1.3 of the review); 2) flights of Russian UAVs of the various types into Belarus (for more details, see paragraph 1.11 of the review);

The intensity of recorded movements of military equipment remained the same compared to September. As in previous months, there was nothing unusual in movements of the equipment of the Belarusian Armed Forces. Most of the movements were concentrated in the vicinity of the areas where the garrisons and training grounds of the Belarusian Armed Forces are located.  Especially active movements were recorded in the vicinity of large garrisons (Hrodna, Minsk). The activity of movements of equipment was noted in Homiel region, which was connected with the deployment of a military group (for more details, see paragraph 1.3 of the review).

More details on the movements of military equipment can be found on the map of military activity.

The intensity of movements of the Belarusian Armed Forces by rail decreased slightly compared to September. During the month, trains with military equipment were recorded in Homiel, as well as at Yelsk (Homiel region) and Rusina (Baranavichy district) stations.

Information on the movements of the troops by rail can be found on the map of military activity.

The intensity of flights of the Belarusian Air Force decreased by one third compared to September. During the month, 216 flight activity events were recorded.

A “flight activity event” means the takeoff or landing of an aircraft or helicopter at an active airfield (airport) or landing sites located on terrain (including inactive airfields).

During the month, aviation activity was recorded at the following airfields (main base and reserve):

Traditionally, the greatest activity was recorded at Machulishchy airfield. This is due to the specifics of the 50th Combined Air Base, a unit of the Belarusian Air Force, which has the largest number of aircraft and helicopters stationed at the airfield. High activity at Babruisk airfield in the first half of October is notable. This is due to the deployment of a group of troops in Homiel region and the deployment of aircraft at the airfield (for more details, see paragraph 1.3 of the review).

During the month, activity was recorded at landing sites. Among them, we can distinguish the following:

All the mentioned activity was recorded in the first half of October. It was connected with the deployment of a group of troops in Homiel region. In addition, some of the activity was connected with the travels of Aliaksandr Lukashenka.

The following notable features of aviation activity can be noted:

1) On October 1, 10, 12, 15, 17-18, 20, 21, 30, flights of fighters of the Belarusian Air Force from Baranavichy airfield were recorded in the southern and southeastern regions of Belarus. Part of these flights were related to interceptions of Russian UAVs (for more details, see paragraph 1.11 of the review).

2) On October 17, flights of two Mi-8 helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force along the western border of Belarus were recorded at Machulishchy airfield.

1.3. The group of the Belarusian Armed Forces deployed in the border regions. Escalation of the situation on the Belarus-Ukraine border

Key points in paragraph 1.3:

 

In October, the situation with the group deployed in Homiel region changed.

Note. On August 10, Aliaksandr Lukashenka spoke about the violation of the Belarusian airspace by Ukrainian UAVs. Later Defense Minister Viktar Khrenin said that given the situation in Ukraine and Russia’s Kursk region, Lukashenka had given instructions “to strengthen the group of troops in Homiel and Mazyr tactical directions.” 

Earlier we assumed that we could expect the first rotation of units of the Belarusian Armed Forces, redeployed to Homiel region in August, to take place in early October. Indeed, some units were withdrawn from the border with Ukraine to the permanent deployment points.

1) On October 2, it became known that the 355th Separate Tank Battalion of the 120th Mechanized Brigade (military unit 25853) had been withdrawn from the border with Ukraine to the permanent deployment point. The battalion was redeployed to Homiel and Mazyr districts on August 11. And, accordingly, stayed in the border area with Ukraine for a little more than 1.5 months.

2) In early October, the 339th Separate Mechanized Battalion of the 120th Mechanized Brigade (military unit 04104) was also withdrawn from Homiel region to the permanent deployment point. The battalion was redeployed to the area bordering Ukraine on August 10. 

Thus, two battalions of the 120th Mechanized Brigade were withdrawn to the permanent deployment points from Homiel region. Other units of the Belarusian Armed Forces were redeployed to Yelsk instead. It is unknown which ones.

3) On October 7, two Yak-130 combat trainer aircraft of the 116th Assault Air Base of the Belarusian Armed Forces (military unit 19764) flew from Babruisk airfield to the permanent airfield in Lida. The aircraft had been in Babruisk for almost a month (since September 11).

4) On August 13-14, one of the divizions of the 15th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade (military unit 30151) was deployed between Unorytsa and Aziorshchyna, Rechytsa district. However, the unit changed its location in mid-October. It is possible that the divizion could have either returned to the permanent deployment point (within or without rotation) or simply changed its position. 

5) At the end of October, a separate parachute airborne battalion of the 103rd Airborne Brigade was redeployed to Homiel region. The purpose of the relocation was to conduct rotation of another unit of the Special Operations Forces, which was carrying out tasks of “protecting the state border” with Ukraine.

Units of the Internal Troops, which were also redeployed to the area bordering Ukraine, should be paid special attention to. During the month, it was repeatedly reported that they were holding “patriotic” events and carrying out tasks in the regions of Homiel region bordering Ukraine. 

From this, we can conclude that the following units of the Internal Troops are stationed in Homiel region:

On October 27, Commander of the Special Operations Forces of the Belarusian Armed Forces Vadzim Dzenisenka said that the situation on the Belarus-Ukraine border was “calm.” One of the signs of a “calm situation” on the border was the reduced media coverage of the situation to a minimum. There is also a decrease in the activity of flights of the Belarusian Air Force to the settlements of Homiel region, where units of the Belarusian Armed Forces can be deployed. At the same time, the activity of units of the Internal Troops continues to be recorded (see above).

In general, we can state that the situation on the Belarus-Ukraine border is gradually returning to the status quo that existed before August 2024. The essence of it was reduced to the fact that 1-2 battalions of the Special Operations Forces were permanently stationed in Homiel region on a rotational basis. Their task was to guard Russian military facilities at Ziabrauka and Mazyr (Bokau) airfields, as well as the ammunition arsenal (bases) of the Belarusian Armed Forces. However, currently there is no complete return to “August 2024.” As practice shows, the situation can change at any moment (including under the influence of external factors or events).

As of November 1, units of the Special Operations Forces (the 38th Air Assault Brigade, the 103rd Airborne Brigade and the 5th Special Forces Brigade) were concentrated in Mazyr district and Homiel district (Homiel region). In addition, special forces units of the Internal Troops are still deployed in the area bordering Ukraine. The total number of these units is currently unknown.

1.4. Territorial defense and national home guard. Military commissariats

Key points in paragraph 1.4:
Territorial defense. National home guard

There were no training sessions with conscripts of the territorial troops in October. As the practice of recent years shows, such training sessions are usually held from March to September. Therefore, it can be expected that no such events will be held in the coming months.

At the same time, in early October, training sessions with conscripts of territorial troops of Vitsiebsk and Orsha districts were completed (note: they started back in September). In particular, the final stage of command-staff drills with the territorial defense bodies of Vitsiebsk region was held. According to the head of the territorial defense department of the General Staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces, “At all sites, there was a testing of both the issues of countering UAVs and the use of our own UAVs, which we also have in certain units.”

We can note that in 2024, training sessions with conscripts were held in 15 regions of Belarus. At least 1568 reservists were drafted. The training sessions were held in:

As can be seen, 2024 was a record year both in terms of the number of regions where training sessions with the territorial troops were held and the number of conscripts drafted. However, despite the growth of the indicators above, the number of reservists drafted on average per training session in 2024 was lower than in the previous 2 years.

Other activities of the territorial defense included:

1) A training session was held at the 6th Mechanized Brigade for conscripts assigned to territorial defense district headquarters. The reservists practiced keeping records of personnel and materiel. They also got acquainted with “modern trends in combat involving military units of the territorial troops.”

2) On October 8-11, annual mobilization readiness exercises were held in all districts of Belarus under the leadership of chairmen of regional executive committees. During the training sessions, conscripts were drafted for one-day training sessions to learn the basics and procedure of actions during the formation of the territorial troops. The readiness of the base of mobilization deployment of the territorial troops to carry out the planned activities was also inspected. In addition, exercises on the formation of national home guard detachments were conducted.

3) On October 22-23, under the leadership of the head of the territorial defense department of the Belarusian Armed Forces, a training on the management of the formation of the territorial troops was held. Officials of Minsk City Executive Committee, district administrations and military commissariats of Minsk took part in the training. 

4) On October 22-25, mobilization readiness exercises were held in Vitsiebsk region. Within the framework of the training, exercises with reserve officers and heads of territorial defense institutions on the issues of preparing them for guarding and defense were held. In addition, the deployment of personnel reception points of the territorial troops was practiced.

During the month, a number of events were reported on the formation of national home guard detachments. For example, training sessions with commanders and deputy commanders of national home guard detachments were held in Cherven, Slutsk districts (Minsk region), Masty district (Hrodna region), Klimavichy district (Mahiliou region), Pruzhany and Brest districts (Brest region).

It was reported that a total of 93 people are members of the national home guard in Masty district.

Military commissariats

In October, the activities of regular conscription for compulsory military service continued. During the conscription, activity of representatives of military units was noted, who visited military commissariats and agitated conscripts to undergo military service under contract.

On October 22, Belarusians drafted for compulsory military service to the units of the Belarusian Armed Forces, Internal Troops, Border Guard and State Security began to be sent to the troops. A total of about 10,000 people are planned to be sent to the troops in October-November. About 58,000 conscripts were to be summoned to draft boards in fall 2024. 

A representative of the General Staff said in an interview that the Belarusian military does not plan: 1) to increase the age of conscription for compulsory military service (now it is from 18 to 27 years old); 2) to change the duration of compulsory military service (now it is from 6 to 18 months); 3) to draft women for compulsory military service. In other words, the basic conditions of conscription for compulsory military service will not be changed in the near future. At the same time, the number of those willing to serve under contract instead of compulsory military service is growing. Currently, 36% of soldiers and sergeants in the Belarusian Armed Forces are “contract servicemen.”

Due to technical work on the pravo.by website, it is temporarily impossible to get up-to-date statistics on the number of criminal cases against conscripts who evaded conscription for compulsory military service. In October, at least 2 sentences were reported in criminal cases of evasion of conscription for compulsory military service (p. 1 Art.435 of the Criminal Code).

Another area of activity of the military commissariats in October was the conscription of reserve officers for military service. During the month, at least 30 reserve officers were drafted for military service. In total, at least 164 reserve officers were drafted in August-October. According to media reports, 998 reserve officers are planned to be drafted for service in 2024. Conscription of reserve officers is carried out on the basis of Decree No. 179 of 29.04.2024. The peculiarity of the conscription of officers in 2024 is that the number of officers to be drafted was classified. 

1.5. Military training sessions with reservists

Key points in paragraph 1.5:

 

The following units of the Belarusian Armed Forces and Internal Troops were reported to be holding training sessions with reservists in October:

In total, at least 800 people were drafted to the training sessions in these units.

During the month, there was also information about military commissariats of Brest region and Minsk city sending 33 reservists to military training sessions.

No conscripts were drafted to training sessions of the territorial troops in October. 

We should also mention the sentence for evasion from participation in a military training session, which was passed by the “court” of Petrykau district. For example, the reservist was sentenced to 120 hours of community service for evasion from attending a military training session (p.1 Art. 436 of the Criminal Code). This is the second sentence under Article 436 of the Criminal Code, which became known this year.

Thus, the total number of reservists drafted to military training sessions in October can be at least 833 people. And in total since the beginning of 2024 – 12,382 people. We note that this is the minimal number of reservists who have undergone military training sessions. In reality, their number may be several times higher, since open sources publish only fragmentary data on conscription to military training sessions. 

The Ministry of Defense of Belarus hasn’t reported the number of conscripts to be drafted to military training sessions in 2024. A total of 9000 people were planned to be drafted to training sessions in 2023.

1.6. Supplies of new weapons to the troops. Activity of the military-industrial complex

Key points in paragraph 1.6:
Supplies of new weapons to the troops

1) On October 3, the Community of Railway Workers of Belarus reported on deliveries of military equipment to Belarus from Russia. The following equipment was delivered in 9 months of 2024:

2) On October 3, the Community of Railway Workers of Belarus reported on the supplies of ammunition to Belarus from Russia. For example, in June-August 2024, 43 cars with ammunition (about 1100 tons of missile weapons) were delivered to the 2631st air base of missile weapons and ammunition of the Belarusian Armed Forces (military unit 94017, Prudok, Haradok district).

3) It was reported that the Internal Troops received buggies, quad bikes and motorcycles. It should be noted that these vehicles regularly appear in photo reports from various drills.

4) On October 24, it was reported that the 814th Technical Support Center had received “the latest UAVs”. It was noted that the new weapons significantly expand the unit’s capabilities and increase its combat effectiveness.

5) On October 24, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus published a tender for the purchase of 16 sets of Chimera CX10 UAVs. It is planned to spend BYN 459,999.94 ($139,419). 

6) On October 28, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus published a tender for the purchase of the following UAVs: Autel EVO MAX 4T (13 sets), Autel EVO MAX 4N (6 sets) and FIMI X8 SE 2022 Megaphone Combo (5 sets). In total, they plan to spend BYN 673,977 ($ 203,883) on the purchase of Autel and FIMI drones.

Announced plans for rearmament

1) Training of specialists for the operation of Pantsir-S1/SM and Tor-M2K systems is being conducted in the 1st Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment. Based on available information, we can state that there are plans to supply all anti-aircraft missile units of the Belarusian Armed Forces armed with S-300/S-400 short-range SAM systems. The purpose is to provide cover against air attack means for S-300/S-400 SAM divizions “during the conduct of maneuvering combat operations.” The question of the timing of the implementation of these plans remains open, as they directly depend on the capabilities of the Russian military-industrial complex.

2) On October 27, Vadzim Dzenisenka, the commander of the Special Operations Forces of the Belarusian Armed Forces, told state media that the troops are being equipped with modern weapons and equipment. For example, new means of individual armor protection (bulletproof vests, helmets) are being introduced in the units. Each serviceman was provided with a first-aid kit made in Belarus. In addition, it was decided to test and deliver motorcycles (made in Belarus) and buggies to the troops. New EW means are being introduced to protect every vehicle and every serviceman. Deliveries of new armored vehicles continue. The use of gyroplanes and hang-gliders is developing: pilots are being actively trained for their operation. 90% of the developments introduced in the troops are of Belarusian manufacture. 

Activity of the military-industrial complex

1) On October 4, it was reported that at the end of September, OJSC “Agat – Electromechanical Plant” made another delivery of “Control Kit” products in the interests of a foreign customer. “Control Kit” is designed to solve problems associated with determining the setting for firing of artillery battery and divizion. 

2) On October 23, it was reported about the supply of the Belarusian anti-UAV station “Station T” to Indonesia. It was noted that the system uses advanced technologies and the latest scientific solutions, including elements of artificial intelligence. Station T was first demonstrated at the MILEX-2023 exhibition. The delivery of the complex to the Belarusian Armed Forces was not reported.

1.7. Formation of new units. Staffing of troops

Key points in paragraph 1.7:
Formation of new units in the Belarusian Armed Forces and Internal Troops

No information on the formation of new units was received in October. However, information on the ongoing measures to change the organizational and staff structure of the troops was clarified.

1) Special UAV units have been established in the Northwestern Operational Command. They are armed with aircraft and multi-rotor type UAVs. It was reported that the staffs of mechanized and artillery units of the Northwestern Operational Command include UAV crews. The Belarusian military aims at further development of this sphere.

2) On October 16, Commander of the Internal Troops Mikalai Karpiankou said, “The special forces component is being seriously developed in the [Internal] Troops.” While previously it was represented only by the 3rd Special Forces Brigade (military unit 3214) and the Special Rapid Reaction Detachment, the result of three years of work (since 2022) is the establishment of 10 more special forces detachments in each region and two volunteer detachments (Chest’ and Smerch). 

These units account for more than 35% of the total number of the Internal Troops. Karpiankou said, “The era of the formation of operational special forces of the Internal Troops is over, but work in this direction will continue further.”

Staffing of units, training of military personnel

1) On October 7, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus organized a meeting with rectors of higher education institutions in Belarus. The topic of the meeting was the organization of training of students in UAV operator training programs. During the meeting, the participants outlined the timeframe for the project’s implementation, as well as problematic issues. No other details were reported.

2) It was reported that more than 360 specialists for the Belarusian Armed Forces study in Russian educational institutions.

1.8. Tactical nuclear weapons

Key points in paragraph 1.8:

 

No new information related to TNWs in Belarus was received in October. However, there were statements from politicians about the use of TNWs. 

For example, on October 23, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov said that the state policy of Russia, adapted to the new realities, allows the possibility of using nuclear weapons in response to aggression against Belarus. 

Aliaksandr Lukashenka also spoke about the use of nuclear weapons. According to the politician, “Putin will never use the weapons that are currently deployed on the territory of Belarus without [Lukashenka’s] consent. […] But if Belarus needs it, it [nuclear weapons] will be used.”

As we have repeatedly previously noted, currently there is still no reliable data that would confirm the deployment of TNWs on the territory of Belarus.

1.9. Amendments to legislation in the military sphere

Key points in paragraph 1.9:

 

1) On October 7, Decree No.392 was signed, which provides for a new version of Decree No.215 of June 5, 2019 “On the suppression of flights of aircraft models and unmanned aerial vehicles.” 

The document stipulates the right to use physical force, special means, weapons, military equipment not only in relation to aircraft models and UAVs, but also unmanned aircraft, unmanned vehicles (including underwater and surface vessels, as well as land-based unmanned vehicles). The right to use weapons and special means in relation to UAVs is additionally granted to employees of a number of paramilitary organizations (Investigative Committee, State Committee for Forensic Expertise, State Inspection for the Protection of Fauna and Flora, emergency situation bodies and units, financial investigation bodies, customs authorities).

2) Decree of the Council of Ministers No. 753 of October 12, 2024 introduced amendments to the Regulation on the procedure for military and special training sessions. According to the new requirements, conscripts must now receive summonses no later than 7 days before the start of training sessions (previously – 10 days). 

1.10. International military cooperation

Key points in paragraph 1.10:

 

In October, a military delegation from Zimbabwe paid an official visit to Belarus. During the visit, Belarusian and Zimbabwean military discussed cooperation in the information sphere. Representatives of the Military Medical Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan also paid a working visit to Belarus. Also, on the eve of the Second Minsk International Conference on Eurasian Security, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktar Khrenin held meetings with Deputy Prime Minister of Serbia Aleksandar Vulin and CSTO Secretary General Imangali Tasmagambetov.

We can separately mention cooperation with military educational institutions. For example, representatives of the Vietnam Military Technical Academy visited the Military Academy of Belarus.

It was reported that the procedure for accreditation of the assistant military attache of Turkey to the Ministry of Defense of Belarus was completed.

It was reported on a number of events within the CIS. For example, on October 2, a meeting of the Coordination Committee of metrological services of the CIS member states was held in Minsk. Also on October 2, a meeting of the Coordination Committee of the Chiefs of Communications of the Armed Forces of the CIS member states was held in St. Petersburg.

Visits of Belarusian military delegations abroad were reported. For example, the Belarusian military visited the Strategic Research Center of the Armed Forces of Qatar. 

A number of bilateral cooperation activities were reported. In the context of cooperation with China, we can mention a visit of the delegation of the financial department of the Main Logistics Directorate of the Chinese Central Military Council to Minsk. During the visit, the delegation met with the head of the main financial and economic department of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus. During the negotiations, the delegation exchanged views on the financial support of the armed forces of Belarus and China, and discussed new areas of cooperation and prospects for their development.

In the context of cooperation with Russia, we can mention the 24th meeting of the Belarusian-Russian Intergovernmental Commission on Military-Technical Cooperation  held on October 8-10 in Izhevsk (Russia). During the meeting, it was reported about the visit of the Belarusian delegation to the enterprises of the Russian military-industrial complex (Izhevsk Electromechanical Plant Kupol, ZALA AERO GROUP). And on October 17, a meeting on security issues chaired by Secretary of the Security Council of Russia Sergei Shoigu and State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus Aliaksandr Valfovich took place in Moscow. During the meeting, the parties discussed the state and prospects of bilateral cooperation between the countries in the field of security, issues of further deepening industrial cooperation, implementation of joint programs and investment projects.

However, the main event was the joint board of the defense ministries of Belarus and Russia held in Minsk. The joint board meeting resulted in the approval of the Plan of Bilateral Cooperation, which envisages more than 160 joint activities. According to Belarusian Defense Minister Viktar Khrenin, in 2024, development and improvement of the regional group of troops, as well as the exchange of experience [of the war in Ukraine] continued within the framework of Belarusian-Russian military cooperation. In addition, cooperation between the countries also developed in the military-technical sphere: the parties continue to support each other in supplying the necessary weapons and military equipment. 

In turn, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov said that the preparation of the Treaty between Belarus and Russia on guarantees of military security, as well as a new Security Concept of the “Union State” was being finalized.

1.11. Flights of Russian UAVs into Belarus

Key points in paragraph 1.11:

 

In October, Russian UAVs continued to fly into the airspace of Belarus. It should be noted that UAVs were initially launched from the territory of Russia to attack Ukraine and to conduct reconnaissance. The flights of UAVs into Belarus are systematic.

During the month, 49 Russian Shahed-131/136 UAVs flew in: on October 3, 7, 11, 15, 16, 17, 18, 20, 21, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31.

It is known that on October 3, one Shahed-131/136 drone fell and exploded in Kalinkavichy (Homiel region). And on October 20, one Shahed-131/136 was shot down by the Air Defense Forces in Yelsk district (Homiel region).

We can state that at least:

It is notable that at the time of the flight of Russian UAVs in the airspace of Belarus on October 3, the helicopter with Aliaksandr Lukashenka was heading to Mikashevichy (Brest region). Later, on October 4, the politician said that UAVs (both Russian and Ukrainian) fly into Belarus, and the Belarusian Armed Forces shoot them down: “There have been several such cases from both Russia and Ukraine. We shoot down a lot of them. We do not care whether they are Russian or Ukrainian.”

Flights of Russian UAVs in Belarus stimulate the emergency services to prepare for new threats. For example, on October 17, the Ministry of Emergency Situations held drills on the territory of Naftan OJSC in Navapolatsk. It was noted that drills with such a tactical plan were held by the rescuers for the first time based on the study of real threats and situations occurring in Russia. Probably, they were referring to the Ukrainian UAV strikes on Russian oil refineries.

There was no new information regarding the reasons for the flights of Russian UAVs into Belarus. Two versions remain the most probable: 1) Changed tactics of using UAVs by the Russian military. During missile attacks, Russian UAVs fly into the territory of Belarus (where they can’t be shot down by Ukrainian air defense units) to subsequently fly to the territory of Ukraine. Such actions may, for example, prolong the duration of missile attacks. 2) Due to the work of Ukrainian EW systems (e.g., the Pokrova GPS spoofing system).

We can note a trend towards an increase in the number of flights of Russian UAVs into Belarus. As of today, there is no reason to believe that flights of Russian UAVs into Belarus may stop anytime soon

Chapter 2. Russia’s military activity in Belarus

Key points in paragraph 2.1:

2.1. Russian group in Belarus

The situation with the group of the Russian Armed Forces in Belarus didn’t change significantly in October compared to previous months.

Russian military continue to be stationed at Mazyr (Bokau) and Ziabrauka airfields. According to available information, one anti-aircraft missile divizion of the 1530th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment of the Russian Armed Forces (military unit 31458) is stationed at each of the airfields. The regiment is part of the Eastern Military District and was redeployed to Belarus to take part in the Union Resolve-2022 drills back in early February 2022. 

The presence of the Russian military at MAzyr (Bokau) airfield is confirmed by regular movements of vehicles of the Russian Armed Forces in Mazyr and its vicinity. So far, it hasn’t been publicly reported in what status the Russian military are present at the airfields. At the same time, in March 2022, Lukashenka said that he had asked the Russian president to leave “some forces to cover the Homiel direction.”

As of November 1, 2024, the number of Russian military personnel stationed in Belarus can be estimated at about 2000 people. Of these:

2.2. Movements of military equipment and aviation activity

Key points in paragraph 2.2:

 

The intensity of movements of military equipment by public roads remained almost at the same level compared to September. Regular movements of equipment of the Russian Armed Forces were recorded in Mazyr district, where the Russian Armed Forces are permanently deployed (for more details, see paragraph 2.1 of the review). Also, equipment of the Russian Armed Forces was spotted in Biaroza (Brest region), on the M8 highway (Vitsiebsk region), and in Minsk district. More details on the movements of military equipment can be found on the map.

No movements of the Russian Armed Forces by rail were recorded.

In October, the aviation activity of the Russian Aerospace Forces increased compared to September. This is not related to the increase in the military activity of the Russian Armed Forces in Belarus.

Transport and passenger aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces and FSB continued arriving in Belarus in October:

The arrival of MiG-31K fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces deserves special attention. On October 9, the first MiG-31K of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Machulishchy airfield. And on October 10, the second MiG-31K arrived at Machulishchy. On the same day (October 10), both aircraft flew from Machulishchy airfield in the southern direction. And, most likely, subsequently flew to Russia. There were no MiG-31K aircraft in Belarus for almost 1.5 years – since April 6, 2023.

The Ministry of Defense of Belarus did not comment on the arrival of the aircraft. However, resources close to the Belarusian military confirmed the arrival of MiG-31K to Machulishchy.

The most probable reasons are the following: 1) informational provocation against Ukraine (deployment of aircraft capable of using long-range weapons on the territory of Belarus); 2) checking the runway of Machulishchy airfield after repairs (in order to deploy aircraft at Machulishchy airfield in the near future – for example, during the West-2025 drills). In addition to these, the following versions of the aircraft arrival were mentioned: 1) training within the framework of the Unified Regional Air Defense System of Belarus and Russia. 2) control of the aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces as a long-range radar detection and control aircraft.

As of November 1, up to 4 Su-30SM fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces are permanently deployed in Belarus (Baranavichy airfield). During the month, the fighters made at least 4 sorties.

General conclusion

  • In October, the key event for the Belarusian Armed Forces was the combat readiness inspection of the units of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces. There were practically no other notable combat training events reported. In general, no major combat training events should be expected before early December. 

    • We can state that the situation on the Belarus-Ukraine border has de-escalated. During the month, a number of units of the Belarusian Armed Forces were withdrawn from the border with Ukraine to the permanent deployment points. The commander of the Special Operations Forces of the Belarusian Armed Forces called the situation on the border “calm.” We can state that the situation on the Belarus-Ukraine border is gradually returning to the status quo, which existed until August 2024.

    Russian UAVs of the Shahed-131/136 type continued to fly into Belarus. A trend towards an increase in the number of UAVs flying into Belarus continues. Currently, there is no reason to claim that the situation with UAV flights will be radically resolved in the coming months. Moreover, the number of Russian Shahed-131/136 drones in the Belarusian sky will only increase.

    The general direction of the national security activities implemented by the Lukashenka regime still indicates an increasing (in the regime’s opinion) probability of Belarus’ participation in the war. At the same time, the participation of the Belarusian Armed Forces in combat operations on the side of Russia still looks unlikely.

  • The general conclusion on the situation with the Russian Armed Forces on the territory of Belarus didn’t change. All the conclusions given in the review for February remain valid.

    • No increase in the number of the Russian group in Belarus has been recorded. The main factor that can significantly change the situation with the Russian military presence in Belarus is still the West-2025 drills. The maneuvers are to be held in September 2025.

     The level of activity of the Russian Armed Forces in Belarus in October remained low.

  • All the conclusions regarding the prospects for the deployment of PMC Wagner mercenaries in Belarus given in the review for October 2023 remain valid. A small number of the mercenaries (up to 100 people) are still stationed in Belarus, who serve as instructors for Belarusian military structures (mostly the Internal Troops). 

    • There are no signs of a complete shutdown of mercenaries’ activities in Belarus so far. Moreover, the former mercenaries were probably officially put into service.

    The level of activity of PMC Wagner in Belarus in October remained very low.